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Message: [QUOTE="pj, post: 3479631, member: 2524"] Heh, no, that's not the case. To summarize the high points: - There are two versions of the virus circulating in the world, one that is extremely deadly and first entered the world in Wuhan in November, and has accounted for the major death clusters in Wuhan, Iran, Kirkland Life Care Center, etc, and another that is much less deadly and was introduced in China in December or January, that differs by two significant mutations but is otherwise highly homologous, and thus acts as a weakened live virus vaccine which can establish immunity against the lethal virus. - The second virus was probably intentionally developed as a vaccine/defense by the Chinese. And thank goodness they had that and shared it with the world. - Whereas the lethal virus may kill 5-20% of people infected, the weakened one kills 0.1-1%. - The apparently schizophrenic response of the authorities is because they need "panic" in the form of quarantines, event cancellations, etc, to stop spread of the lethal virus, but they need the weakened vaccine-like virus to spread widely through the population in order to generate immunity. - Timing of spread may be important, if the weakened virus spreads in winter alongside cold and flu it may kill 1%, if it spreads in summer it may kill 0.1%. - So, we need a few months of "panic" to stop the lethal virus and to delay spread of the vaccine to a safer period, but we need the vaccine to work its way through the population in a timely manner (generating "herd immunity" by the fall). - If the authorities decide that the lethal virus cannot be quarantined, they will try to spread the vaccine virus as rapidly as possible. This appears to be what the UK is doing. That is why unlike here they are encouraging large sporting events, which are good opportunities to introduce and spread the weakened vaccine virus. Something similar may be happening in the US on a local level, e.g. after the lethal virus outbreak at Kirkland we soon had a mysterious "community outbreak" of the weaker vaccine virus in the Seattle area, and similarly wherever the lethal virus has appeared, community spread of the weaker virus has soon followed in that local area. - Meanwhile there should be crash programs to develop routine detection, good therapies, better vaccines, sufficient production of N95 masks, etc, so that we're prepared for next winter and for re-emergence of the lethal strain. If everything goes well we will be able to hold mortality in the US down to 0.1%, almost all elderly, and eradicate the lethal strain as we eradicated smallpox. I am hoping things go well, and am optimistic they will. [/QUOTE]

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