Conference RPI | The Boneyard

Conference RPI

Status
Not open for further replies.
Yeesh. And G'town is at 89. We truly can't afford more than 4 losses in the conference for an at-large.
 
Leebo said:
Everyone's RPI is going to rise as we start to play each other. I wouldn't really panic about the numbers as they are today.
Expand ...

How? Playing each other leads to regression toward the mean, which is low 100s.
 
pj said:
How? Playing each other leads to regression toward the mean, which is low 100s.
Expand ...

The schedule isn't perfectly balanced. The home and homes are weighted toward the good teams playing each other more. But I really meant ours will go up as we get to play SMU twice, Cincy twice, etc.
 
UconnFanDC said:
2015-16 RPI
RK (RPI) TEAM RPI D1
1 (13) SMU
2 (63) Connecticut
3 (91) Tulsa
4 (101) Memphis .
5 (103) Temple
6 (107) Cincinnati
7 (135) Houston
8 (181) East Carolina
9 (202) South Florida
10 (213) UCF
11 (264) Tulane

There is absolutely no room for error. Based on this, we are looking at two conference teams at best getting in just like last year! We will/must/can be one of those!
Expand ...

Again, if UConn goes 4-3 against Michigan, Ohio State, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Maryland, Texas and Georgetown, the committee is going to take that into account and not ding us for playing Sacred Heart. They are not going to be phased by the fact that Incarnate Word at 2-9 has a higher RPI than UConn. They are going to look at the schedule and realize that maybe just maybe a loss to Gonzaga is worth more than a loss to Our Lady of the Lake.
 
.-.
pj said:
How? Playing each other leads to regression toward the mean, which is low 100s.
Expand ...

7 games against top OOC competition though also provides you with some lift throughout the season. You keep getting rewarded for those games since they comprise 1/4th of your whole schedule.
 
Here is RPI Forecast's assessment of the Final RPIs of each team. It isn't pretty, but if the some of those teams projected to 10-8 do better than projected against the lower teams, we may have more than 4 Top 100 teams.

God, though, just saying that is depressing.

Screen Shot 2016-01-05 at 9.09.48 AM.png
 
It's only now that I'm realizing that, yes, SMU being out of the tournament is nice for our chances of getting the auto-bid, but it wouldn't have been too bad to tack a 3rd game on to the end of the resume.
 
.-.
Also, using this metric, if UConn loses three AAC games (let's say @SMU, @Cincy, random road game), and then wins the AAC by beating bottom team A, Houston/Memphis, and then Cincy, they'd end the year 28-6 (15-3) with a 15 RPI.

I think it is more likely that they are something like 27-7, 26-8. But regardless, their RPI in those cases would still be in the mid to low 20s if they win the AAC.

They look like they have a shot for a 4-6 seed if they play well. Would have been better if they came through against Syracuse and then A&M, but oh well.
 
I still say UConn gets in at 10 losses. A 24-10 record with an RPI of about 45 or 50.

By my count, UConn has 7 losses to give, but the key is the conference tourney. It can't go out early.
 
We really need to take care of business at home this week and all year really. As we learned at Tulane, some of those games on the road at Houston, Memphis and Temple won't be automatic dubs.
 
.-.
tzznandrew said:
@Leebo Beat me to it!

I'll add this, which is UConn's projected RPI at different W/L records, along with the probability the website's algorithm projects that each W/L record will happen.

View attachment 11609
Expand ...

RPI of 45 is a bubble team, RPI of 56 is out, RPI of 36 is in with probably a 10 seed. But we can't count on the NCAA to be kind to AAC teams -- they never have been.

However, I would be shocked if this team didn't do at least as well as 13-5 in conference. From this projection, we look to be a lock for the tourney, if we take care of business.
 
At the beginning of the season I figured UConn at 25-6 and assumed 2 wins and a loss in the AAC Tourney leaving the record at 27-7. I figured that makes UConn a 7 seed. Add one for conference bias and make it an 8?
 
80shusky said:
At the beginning of the season I figured UConn at 25-6 and assumed 2 wins and a loss in the AAC Tourney leaving the record at 27-7. I figured that makes UConn a 7 seed. Add one for conference bias and make it an 8?
Expand ...
No number 1 seed wants to see UConn on the 8 line.
Looking at that RPI list, it's easy to see what's killing the league. The SMU ban couldn't have come at a worse time. They're a team that could have made some real noise in March. The other problem is Memphis, and Temple underperforming as programs. The four at the bottom are what they are. Tulsa is nice mid level filler. Houston is coming along, but not there yet. This league needs for Temple, and Memphis to be NCAA teams, on a regular basis. UConn, Cincy, Memphis, and Temple performing like they have in the recent past, SMU maintaining what they've built, and Houston becoming a factor, would make this easily a P5 quality league, and one of the better ones at that. Won't happen until coaching changes are made at Temple, and Memphis. Houston becoming a factor is better for the league than one of the bottom 4 doing it, because a reinvigorated Houston becomes a big story, due to their history. There would be ESPN hype about the return of "Phi Slamma Jamma", and such. East Carolina becoming good generates no such pub for the league.
 
I think you can afford one loss that isn't to SMU or Cinco and not risk the anti AAC bubble wrath. In other words, three losses max, none to the bottom half of the league and hope Temple/Tulsa end up as Top 100 wins. Grown hanging on to a Top 100 RPI would also help the cause.

This isn't the old big east. An off night loss to an also ran will be punished by the committee.
 
The Husky AutoBot has recognized this thread as a depressing conference affiliation thread.
Note that reading this thread is at your own risk.

In the meantime (or to regain balance) Please enjoy this major conference content:
 
tcf15 said:
RPI threads are the new Brimah threads.
Expand ...

Until he returns, then back to business as usual. Get ready for the 'Brimah is ruining the chemistry' threads.
 
.-.
pj said:
RPI of 45 is a bubble team, RPI of 56 is out, RPI of 36 is in with probably a 10 seed. But we can't count on the NCAA to be kind to AAC teams -- they never have been.

However, I would be shocked if this team didn't do at least as well as 13-5 in conference. From this projection, we look to be a lock for the tourney, if we take care of business.
Expand ...

But again, they are going to look at schedules. If UConn finishes 45-50, they are going to look at the actual schedule. It makes no sense to credit teams with winning games against midmajors or lowmajors with RPI of 150, while dinging teams for losing games to Maryland or Gonzaga.
 
SubbaBub said:
I think you can afford one loss that isn't to SMU or Cinco and not risk the anti AAC bubble wrath. In other words, three losses max, none to the bottom half of the league and hope Temple/Tulsa end up as Top 100 wins. Grown hanging on to a Top 100 RPI would also help the cause.

This isn't the old big east. An off night loss to an also ran will be punished by the committee.
Expand ...

Woah. 3 losses is a 6 loss record. With a veyr high RPI. Look at the chart in this thread.

I still say UConn can afford to lose 7 games as long as one of those games isn't one of the first two of the conference tourney.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Forum statistics

Threads
168,210
Messages
4,557,030
Members
10,442
Latest member
Virginiafan


Top Bottom