Conference realignment timeline going forward is pretty clear

Discussion in 'Conference Realignment Board' started by UConnSportsGuy, Oct 18, 2016.

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  1. UConnSportsGuy

    UConnSportsGuy Addicted to all things UCONN!

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    After this whole B12 fiasco, I started thinking about why the networks and P5 powers were so upset about the potential of the B12 expanding. Then I looked at the current contracts and timing, and it is seems that it is all set up to be a controlled implosion from within and it is all coordinated across the P5 with a logical timeline. Here are the expiration of the current contracts/GORs by key conference/entity:

    B1G : expires 2023
    SEC : expires 2023

    B12: expires 2025
    Notre Dame : expires 2025
    P12 : expires 2025

    ACC : expires 2036

    So the next expansion will come in 2022/2023 as the B1G and SEC (the two power players in all of this ) are getting ready to negotiate new contracts. With the B12 and Notre Dame contracts/GOR expiring in 2025, the decisions will be made in 2022/23 with a two year grace period for the moving teams to honor their GOR. The new conference landscape will actually begin after the 2025 contracts expire.

    Do you think it is a coincidence that the two power conferences have deals that are expiring the exact same time? And no less, 2 years before the expiration of the contracts/GOR of the expansion targets? I don't think that is a coincidence. My guess is that there will be a "controlled implosion" of the conferences in 2025 that will create 4 super conferences (P12,B1G,SEC,ACC).

    The timeline seems quite clear. We have 6-7 years to make our case for inclusion in the super conference landscape. We will need to double-down on the football program and hope that Diaco is the guy that can build our program back to respectability. Unfortunately, I am not a believer that he is the guy for the job--but we have no other choice given the timeline. If we fire Diaco after the '17 season and bring in a new coach--that does not leave enough time to build a successful program before the day of reckoning for college athletics. We need to double down on Diaco and the program and hope that he proves (the majority of us) wrong.

    I just don't see how conference expansion happens outside of this timeline. Even if the B1G/SEC wanted to expand before then, the GOR/contracts are prohibitive.

    The timeline is set. See you all in 5 years when the true conference realignment panic should set in.:eek:
     
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  2. UConnSportsGuy

    UConnSportsGuy Addicted to all things UCONN!

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    I still have trouble rationalizing why the B12 schools outside of Texlahoma didn't use this chance to expand and protect their long term future. Everyone knows that Texlahoma is leaving the B12 within 10 years. I cannot accept that Iowa St/Kansas St/etc actually believe Texlahoma when they say they are committed to the league long term. They cannot be that stupid.

    This is probably just the irrational conspiracy theorist in me, but I hope this whole B12 expansion fiasco wasn't a power play to ensure that all of the B12 is given a safe landing spot when the eventual implosion happens in 2025. This may have been a way to lock out any competition for the open spots in a Four Super League scenario with 16 teams per league. Instead of giving UConn, Houston, Cincy, etc a chance to build their program up before the implosion and potentially steal their spot--this may have been a way to get agreement that there will be a "controlled implosion" that will ensure the safety of all of the B12 schools. ESPN and Fox ensure that there is no further B12 expansion and keep to the current expansion timeline in exchange for increased money through 2023, and the promise of a "safe landing" in the end. Something like this isn't unreasonable to get to 4, 16 team conferences:

    B1G : Texas & Kansas
    SEC : Oklahoma & TCU/TT
    ACC : Notre Dame & WVU
    P12 : Oklahoma St & Kansas St & Iowa St & TCU/TT

    That scenario would create the Four 16 team conferences as expected--but ensure that everyone is safe (excluding Baylor, but they will have to be sacrificed). While that whole scenario is a stretch and seems like it is unrealistic to agree and coordinate to given potential legal issues--you never know. That would ensure that the UConn athletics is dead after 2025.
     
  3. ZooCougar

    ZooCougar

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    I agree with this, but there is always a twist.

    It wouldn't surprise me if the P5s get even more efficient and decide to shed dead weight like Wake, BC, Iowa State etc.
     
  4. ConnHuskBask

    ConnHuskBask Shut Em Down!

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    Not sure I understand the hate for Iowa State. Seem to have pretty decent hoops, competitive football and good attendance at both.
     
  5. ZooCougar

    ZooCougar

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    What do they do in revenue in comparison to the rest of the conference?
     
  6. ConnHuskBask

    ConnHuskBask Shut Em Down!

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    They are in the bottom tier. My point is that they are actually decent athletically and have good crowds. Dead weight to me impies they don't spend on athletics, have no fan support and are bad at football and basketball.

    Like BC.
     
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  7. WestHartHusk

    WestHartHusk Thank God It's Basketball Season

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    If you apply G5 standards, they are a dead-weight dumpster fire with zero national appeal, are second-fiddle in their small local market, and don't have the local talent to compete for national titles in any relevant sports.

    If you want to apply P5 standards, then they spend some money on athletics, their fans show up and there are passable at football so they deserve their seat at the table.
     
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  8. TRest

    TRest Horrible

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    They are actually pretty bad at football. The crowd support is impressive.
     
  9. ZooCougar

    ZooCougar

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    To me dead weight is having low revenue and a small market. Which is pretty cynical considering Iowa State actually is pretty decent and isn't a mess like Rutgers.
     
  10. ConnHuskBask

    ConnHuskBask Shut Em Down!

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    Just semantics then.

    I see Iowa State packing 50k in for football and expanding to 61k and then it looks like men's hoops is at 14k which is 2nd in the league.
     
  11. HoopsFan21

    HoopsFan21

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    Who says four superconferences is the end game? I'd argue based on $$$ that it makes sense for much more consolidation than that. Also if current P5 schools are shaken loose in the next round of realignment, we're really screwed. If P5 schools become available, no one will need to dip into the G5 pool of candidates other than the remaining severely wounded conference(s) trying to backfill.
     
  12. Doggie Style

    Doggie Style

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    No guarantees obviously, but the same people on ESPN bashing the Big12 today said the endgame at this point is a 4 super conference structure. FWIW
     
  13. don356

    don356

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    There is not much the underlings can do. Just take the checks while they can get them. However, i suspect as the clock winds down there will be more heard from them. I do not think this will be the final chapter. Stay tuned.

    At some point, the tv/media guys always waffle and change their direction.
     
  14. Yawkey Way

    Yawkey Way

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    BC has a better football record since joining the ACC, than UNC, ( and 5 other ACC schools ). The ACC is not going to be " shedding " any current school, in 8 years, imo. Besides, nobody knows what the US economy will be like in 8 months, let alone 8 years... nor what the 20 trillion dollar Gov't debt will be then, and 50 other things that will change by 2023-2025 that makes any speculation that many years out, right now, an exercise in futility, imo.
     
  15. ConnHuskBask

    ConnHuskBask Shut Em Down!

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    Out of curiosity, do you come on the UConn fan forum and search "BC"?

    I know I sure as hell don't search "UConn" on BC's fan forum and do the same.
     
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  16. MattMang23

    MattMang23 Contrarian

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    Doesn't BC have to have fans to have a fan forum? And do you actually go to this mythical fan forum?
     
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  17. pick6s

    pick6s

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    I'm pretty sure the SEC's contract expires much later. The link below says it expires in 2034.
    SEC Network set for 2014; ESPN extends deal
     
  18. Jae-VT

    Jae-VT

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    I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but ND signed the ACC GOR and other attendant strings in the document/contract. So for the sake of this hypothetical situation, ND is off the table until 2036.

    Also, if Frank The Tank is correct concerning the P5 worthiness of Kansas, then all Texas and Oklahoma had to do was convince Kansas to back their play and vote no to expansion. Given the super-majority vote (i.e. 8 yes votes out of 10) required by the Big 12 bylaws to add a new member, whatever Texlahoma wants, Texlahoma gets.
     
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  19. UConnSportsGuy

    UConnSportsGuy Addicted to all things UCONN!

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    Yes, which locks them to the ACC. But the fact that their NBC contract expires in 2025 is definitely relevant. Notre Dame isn't going to walk away from their NBC contract. But when the current deal expires, that may be a time when Notre Dame could look to join the ACC as a full member if their deal with NBC is going down hill. And coincidentally, it is at the same time that the B12 conference GOR expires (and thus when all the conference realignment implosion will occur). That is why the Notre Dame contract date is relevant.
     
  20. HoopsFan21

    HoopsFan21

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    BC is toast when the big consolidation happens. We might let you into the AAC when the time comes though.
     
  21. Exit 4

    Exit 4 This space for rent

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    How do people think the existing conferences will be able to push their weak members out the door? Might not be easy....might not be contractually possible....might not be able to get a super majority of fellow members together to vote a school out. Given the lofty stakes involved, I don't think schools will leave w/o a protracted fight. No one is rolling over like Temple when forced out.
     
  22. Bobol

    Bobol

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    If musical chairs occurs then I expect that the Big 10 will steal one or more ACC schools as it stole Maryland.

    One article I read 2 +/- years ago indicated that some believed that Virginia, UNC, and Georgia Tech had interest in the Big 10 because of the academic advantages which the Big Ten Academic Alliance (formerly know as the Committee on Institutional Cooperation) offered. The article indicated that the aforementioned 3 schools were not willing to test the binding effect of the GOR.
     
  23. Jimdish255

    Jimdish255

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  24. TerryD

    TerryD

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    It was renewed in five year terms from 1991-2015. Around 2013 or so, it was renewed again. ND wanted the five year deal. NBC wanted the ten year deal through 2025.

    This happened before the new Big Ten deal, not after. So, I don't see some grand confluence of deals here, just two unrelated contracts.
     
  25. alexd.

    alexd.

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    Boston-College-Student-Section.jpg
     
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  26. MattMang23

    MattMang23 Contrarian

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    Literally a fan forum then. Is that Yawkey? And does that fan just talk to himself over and over? Is the forum just like an online diary with a bunch of journal entries?
     
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  27. HuskyHawk

    HuskyHawk I'm tryin' real hard to be the shepherd.

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    Actually, I believe that the ACC has a "look in" around 2021. I don't think the timing is an accident. They won't be losing anyone until 2036, but they might very decide to add. I think it exists to give them an opportunity to evaluate what is going on, who might be available from the Big XII and where UConn is etc.

    It's probably safe to say that nothing much will happen until then. With the American staying intact, UConn isn't going to make any Big East move. I found it interesting that Benedict mentioned talking with ESPN as a partner. Given that the ACCN goes live around 2018, and our league contract expires around the same time, I'm still holding out the possibility of a ND type deal with the ACC. UConn takes a reduced payout, and goes independent in football with a 4 game ACC scheduling arrangement. ESPN gives us a small football deal as well, 2-3 million maybe. UConn signs on to terms like ND, that we can't join the B1G.
     
  28. billybud

    billybud

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    I think that we are pretty well set for a decade....except for the Big 12

    The ACC will not add #16 until hell freezes over or Notre Dame joins for football, whichever comes first.

    The Big Ten won't pick up two more unless a desirable Big 12 program or two comes open in a decade.

    The Big 12 is still the one...skip a playoff berth or two and the pressure to expand will build again.

    The Pac? I doubt they have eyes for Boise or BYU...and there seems to be little pressure on them to expand.
     
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  29. Marty Jackson

    Marty Jackson

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    Don't forget the playoff series expires around that time as well. I think that's the most important as that defines P5.
    Without that changing, the big 12 could remain a P5.
    This is a complete repeat of the big east.

    The new playoff will be 4 conferences. 4 conference winners will get tie-in.
     
  30. Jae-VT

    Jae-VT

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    Fair enough and I stand corrected. :)
     
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