Concerning stats thread

[KOFanClub]

Here are some worrisome stats about the current state of UConn Men's Basketball team. Which will last the rest of the season and which are aberrations are the matter of debate but they all seem to have the credence to last imo

Assist-to-FGM%: 46.3, 297th in the country (per KenPom). Last season was 43.8 which was an abhorrent 334th and validates what a joke the KO offense was. But this year's mark is still unacceptable, it is the second worst in the KenPom era for a UConn team. This group just use one ball screen, goes side to side, and then prays they'll create their own shot. The guards are talented enough for it to actually yield some results but still not optimal.

Opponent Free Throw Rate: 45.5%, 338th in the country, In conference 64.7, last. Are the refs bad? yes. But we clearly have had this problem all year and not made any adjustments, in fact, it's only gotten worse. Again, the refs are bad, but the way Hurley treats them will never get us a friendly whistle and I think that partly shows in this stat. (per KenPom)

Wings Shooting:
Tyler 3PT%: 33.3, FT%: 60.7 (which has shown to be predictive of three-point shooting because it is emblematic of form and touch)
Sid: 3PT%: 16.7, FT%: 56.2.

Yikes. Part of the allure of "small ball" is the the fact your four man can stretch the floor to open up driving lanes and the post. There performance is not gonna cut but Hurley has shown no willingness to go two bigs either so we may be stuck here

Alterique at the rim: (per HoopMath.com) AG is shooting 38.3% at the rim. That is the worst in HoopMath's archives for a UConn lead guard (it only goes back to 13-14 where Boat was the second worst at 46.8%). Boat also only took 29.9% of his shots at the rim, Gilbert takes 33.9. Whoof. He can penetrate with the best of them, but has a 4.7 foul drawn rate which is mediocre, and no finishing or getting to the line means it's really just a losing proposition there. I know he can't just grow, but that number has to come up.

Thoughts?

 

[polycom]

Free throw rate thing is not shocking if you watch our games we have no idea how to play man to man defense. The basic principles of switching and recovery are terrible and we reach more than a pick up game at LA Fitness.

 

[tykurez]

I mean, they are who we thought they would be.

We have guards who can’t draw fouls. One who is so good at finishing at the rim and avoiding contact that he can’t get to the line. Another who is too small and hasn’t figured out how to navigate that space under the rim and it’s killing his shooting %.

On top of that, the rest of the team (save a streaky Vital) cannot shoot.

You’ll notice all these teams are playing a pressure zone on us. Getting into the guards and slacking off the rest of the guys begging them to shoot. Maybe I’m misremembering, but I thought Cinci was a M2M team and they played zone 95% of that game.

I’m not seeing a ton of creativity out of Hurley yet, but what’s a guy to do when you’re hamstrung like he is?

 

[UConnStats]

Free throw rate thing is not shocking if you watch our games we have no idea how to play man to man defense. The basic principles of switching and recovery are terrible and we reach more than a pick up game at LA Fitness.

My real issue is that Hurley’s teams always have put the other team on the line a ton. I love tough defense, but he’s got to find a way to teach his kids to play tough D without fouling. The best defensive coaches manage to do it, so Hurley should learn how to too. The best a Hurley coached team has ever finished in opponent FT rate was 233rd. It’s his most glaring defensive weakness.

 

[Kenny11]

I'm not worried about the Alterique stat. I see him making some adjustments on his drives and the floater is developing.

But everything else sucks..badly.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Here are some worrisome stats about the current state of UConn Men's Basketball team. Which will last the rest of the season and which are aberrations are the matter of debate but they all seem to have the credence to last imo

Assist-to-FGM%: 46.3, 297th in the country (per KenPom). Last season was 43.8 which was an abhorrent 334th and validates what a joke the KO offense was. But this year's mark is still unacceptable, it is the second worst in the KenPom era for a UConn team. This group just use one ball screen, goes side to side, and then prays they'll create their own shot. The guards are talented enough for it to actually yield some results but still not optimal.

Opponent Free Throw Rate: 45.5%, 338th in the country, In conference 64.7, last. Are the refs bad? yes. But we clearly have had this problem all year and not made any adjustments, in fact, it's only gotten worse. Again, the refs are bad, but the way Hurley treats them will never get us a friendly whistle and I think that partly shows in this stat. (per KenPom)

Wings Shooting:
Tyler 3PT%: 33.3, FT%: 60.7 (which has shown to be predictive of three-point shooting because it is emblematic of form and touch)
Sid: 3PT%: 16.7, FT%: 56.2.

Yikes. Part of the allure of "small ball" is the the fact your four man can stretch the floor to open up driving lanes and the post. There performance is not gonna cut but Hurley has shown no willingness to go two bigs either so we may be stuck here

Alterique at the rim: (per HoopMath.com) AG is shooting 38.3% at the rim. That is the worst in HoopMath's archives for a UConn lead guard (it only goes back to 13-14 where Boat was the second worst at 46.8%). Boat also only took 29.9% of his shots at the rim, Gilbert takes 33.9. Whoof. He can penetrate with the best of them, but has a 4.7 foul drawn rate which is mediocre, and no finishing or getting to the line means it's really just a losing proposition there. I know he can't just grow, but that number has to come up.

Thoughts?

The foul situation is a problem. We don't draw enough contact and are called for many, many, ticky tack needless fouls. More zone would probably help in the short term. And on offense they simply have to learn to take the body shot while protecting the ball like a running back, and then shoot.

Those "wings" are playing PF, something neither of them are equipped to do. Sid and Tyler have to shoot better or should give way to B. Adams, who played well in spurts yesterday. Small ball sucks. It doesn't work. This team needs a real power forward alongside a real center, desperately.

Alterique has to be moved to Shooting Guard when Jalen is on the floor. He's a solid perimeter shooter and Jalen isn't. Jalen can get to the rim more effectively than Al. Al's game should never be around the rim, his penetration should lead to passes back out to the 3 point line or to cutting bigs for dunks and layups. But our bigs aren't there and he gets trapped.

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

why is this that surprising when we have the same cast as last year minus some people that transferred?

 

[Friendship]

Talent is the same and coaching improved. We beat the teams we should (with some surprise wins, i.e. Cuse, SMU) and lose to the teams we should. Nothing else to see here.

 

[Palatine]

1-4 in conference is the only stat that matters and its very concerning. All the other stats reflect (and account for) the 1-4.

 

[Ts5034]

I think a lot of this comes down to the free throw shooting, and I believe thats why Hurley is all over these refs because he knows that. If you look at free throws made in the box scores of some losses, Arizona was + 11, USF + 9, UCF + 11, Cincy + 12, and Tulsa + 14. In A lot of those games, the other team has almost doubled our free throw attempts as well.

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

why is this that surprising when we have the same cast as last year minus some people that transferred?

Because we are deeper and more talented at the guard position, have a better coach, and played extremely well to start the season. Every single one of us bought into the hype after the Syracuse game and thought we had a shot to get to the NCAA tournament. Don't act like you didn't.

It appears fatigue, reverting to bad habits and other mental factors have caused us to have a very difficult time in the grind of conference play.

 

[auror]

I think a lot of this comes down to the free throw shooting, and I believe thats why Hurley is all over these refs because he knows that. If you look at free throws made in the box scores of some losses, Arizona was + 11, USF + 9, UCF + 11, Cincy + 12, and Tulsa + 14. In A lot of those games, the other team has almost doubled our free throw attempts as well.

You should not look at free throw differentials only in a loss. This is correlation without necessarily causation, due to teams taking a bunch of FTs when the losing team is trying to prolong the game.

I'm not saying the fouls aren't a problem: they're a problem even in the games we win.

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

Because we are deeper and more talented at the guard position, have a better coach, and played extremely well to start the season. Every single one of us bought into the hype after the Syracuse game and thought we had a shot to get to the NCAA tournament. Don't act like you didn't.

It appears fatigue, reverting to bad habits and other mental factors have caused us to have a very difficult time in the grind of conference play.

I totally bought into the hype after the Cuse game, but they also shot lights out. We shot 57% from 3 and 50% FG shooting.

I'm not sure the obsession with Polley is. I dont think he is that great of a shooter and when he cant shoot he does little else.

AG is back but the guy barely played the last 2 years. We appear to be deeper but i'm not sure any of these guards have gotten that much better than they were last year. Hurley is a better Coach and shows more fire than Ollie but he can only do so much with the same cast of characters that we had last year +- a few guys that are barely D1 caliber players.

 

[RipCity]

AST to FGM% will go up once bigs start to score more. Most of our scoring comes from the 4 main guards and they score in isolation more than wings and big men.

Carlton had a bad night but was good last week. I think between he and Wilson you have to take the lumps and keep on developing them. They show flashes. Polley is just a ghost and he doesn’t defend or rebound, so I don’t think he’s a big part of the future.

 

[UconnU]

Polley has had a ridiculous number of shots go in and out these last few games. I still trust his shot, his form is perfect.

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

I totally bought into the hype after the Cuse game, but they also shot lights out. We shot 57% from 3 and 50% FG shooting.

I'm not sure the obsession with Polley is. I dont think he is that great of a shooter and when he cant shoot he does little else.

AG is back but the guy barely played the last 2 years. We appear to be deeper but i'm not sure any of these guards have gotten that much better than they were last year. Hurley is a better Coach and shows more fire than Ollie but he can only do so much with the same cast of characters that we had last year +- a few guys that are barely D1 caliber players.

I think Polley is a very good shooter, but all young guys who need confidence and rely on 3pt shooting go through a slump. His form and rotation on the ball indicates hes a good shooter, but again, it's going to take multiple years for some of these players to start to put it together. Specifically Wilson, B Adams and Polley.

 

[auror]

My real issue is that Hurley’s teams always have put the other team on the line a ton. I love tough defense, but he’s got to find a way to teach his kids to play tough D without fouling. The best defensive coaches manage to do it, so Hurley should learn how to too. The best a Hurley coached team has ever finished in opponent FT rate was 233rd. It’s his most glaring defensive weakness.

Pet theory is that he calls it loose in his "tough, physical, active" practices.

Guys get used to a fast tempo and can't slow down in games. Presumably the practices have a lot of advantages and this may be one of the cons. He definitely needs to work on it.

 

[UConnStats]

Pet theory is that he calls it loose in his "tough, physical, active" practices.

Guys get used to a fast tempo and can't slow down in games. Presumably the practices have a lot of advantages and this may be one of the cons. He definitely needs to work on it.

Yeah, it's a bad trend for Hurley and he'd be doing himself a big favor to learn how to correct it. I will say in regards to this year's team, Carlton, Cobb, and Yakwe have always fouled a lot. But we have too many guards in the 3-4 PF/40 range (every guard has fouled substantially more this year). That's how you let teams get into the bonus in the first 10 minutes of a half.

 

[gtcam]

why is this that surprising when we have the same cast as last year minus some people that transferred?

Except AG and SW didn't play last year - that's a huge difference to last years team

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

Except AG and SW didn't play last year - that's a huge difference to last years team

SW didnt play for the first handful of games and his impact has been minimal. AG has barely played the past 2 years, there is a lot of rust to shake off.

 

[Ts5034]

You should not look at free throw differentials only in a loss. This is correlation without necessarily causation, due to teams taking a bunch of FTs when the losing team is trying to prolong the game.

I'm not saying the fouls aren't a problem: they're a problem even in the games we win.

Yes. Good point. IIRC, at the end of the Arizona game, we put them on the free throw line many times and it seemed like they just could not miss. The free throw shooting is absolutely a problem though. Idk if its because our players are not as strong or fast compared to these other teams so they over compensate when playing D? I just think Hurley and the staff legit feel like we are getting cheated by the refs in a lot of these games with uneven officiating and thats why things are boiling over during games.