Comparing 4 schools' football TV exposure in the ACC

[UConnJim]

Although conferences like the ACC share media revenues equally, the value each of the schools brings to the media contract are highly variable. I have seen too many studies that say school A averages X number of viewers, school B averages Y number of viewers, etc. But the viewership numbers are skewed by the opponents a particular school plays and by the network the game air on. For example, when a school plays Notre Dame, the game will be on NBC, ABC, or ESPN and the game will have good ratings and I think all of us would agree that Notre Dame is usually the main draw. So, how do the networks think about the value of schools when it comes to the station they air on or if they will carry a school's games?

I looked at 4 ACC schools since 2014 and compared their linear TV coverage (note: I did include bowls, conference championships, CFP, which does skew the numbers). I excluded ACCN, BTN, regional sports networks, ESPN3,...:

Clemson: ABC 41, ESPN 39, ESPN2 3, ESPNU 7, ESPNNews 0, NBC 1, FOX 0, CBSSN 0. Total = 91 games or 11.4 per season

North Carolina: ABC 12, ESPN 24, ESPN2 7, ESPNU 11, ESPNNews 1, NBC 1, FOX 1, CBSSN 0. Total = 57 games or 7.1 per season

Wake Forest: ABC 7, ESPN 16, ESPN2 8, ESPNU 6, ESPNNews 0, NBC 1, FOX 0, CBSSN 5. Total = 43 games or 5.4 games per season.

Syracuse: ABC 7, ESPN 14, ESPN2 4, ESPNU 7, ESPNNews 1, NBC 2, FOX 0, CBSSN 4. Total = 39 games or 4.9 per season

On a side note, the games Syracuse played on ABC and NBC were all against Clemson, FSU, or Notre Dame and all but 2 of Wake Forest's games on ABC and NBC were against Clemson, FSU, or Notre Dame.

So, ESPN is telling us Clemson is a more valuable football media property than UNC, Wake Forest, or Syracuse and UNC is more valuable than Wake Forest or Syracuse. Wake Forest and Syracuse seem to have similar TV value to ESPN. But how are Wake Forest's and Syracuse's football media rights worth $20 million plus per year when only 5 games are broadcast on a national linear network per year?

 

[billybud]

As in every conference...some teams are carried in media revenue by other teams in the conference...just look how the Big 12 value will plummet after Texas-Oklahoma leave...and the fact that Northwestern makes as much as Michigan from the media contract has nothing to do with their individual program's value on the scale.

Wake...Northwestern...Vanderbilt...Indiana..etc

 

[UConnJim]

As in every conference...some teams are carried in media revenue by other teams in the conference...just look how the Big 12 value will plummet after Texas-Oklahoma leave...and the fact that Northwestern makes as much as Michigan from the media contract has nothing to do with their individual program's value on the scale.

Wake...Northwestern...Vanderbilt...Indiana..etc

Indiana and Northwestern have averaged about 7 games on linear TV per year over the last 8 years which is higher than both Wake Forest and Syracuse. Sure, there are low value schools in all conferences, but the privates in the ACC are the least valuable schools in the P5.

 

[freescooter]

I don’t know for sure but I bet if you looked year by year you would find some correlation between record and appearance for schools like Wake Syracuse and even UNC. Also, sometimes it takes a year for teams to be recognized. Wake probably isn’t going to be on anybody’s radar if they are 4-8 one year, then 10-2 the next. But year 3 they could well show up more just because people expect them to be good. That doesn’t apply to the Texas and Michigan types. Even bad Texas teams get better coverage than Wake Forest.

 

[billybud]

The small private schools in the ACC do have less national football interest....televised games some years up, some down...last year, Wale had 8 games on ESPN, ESPN2, ABC

 

[UConnJim]

The small private schools in the ACC do have less national football interest....televised games some years up, some down...last year, Wale had 8 games on ESPN, ESPN2, ABC

That is why you need to look at the average over time. FSU has not been very good over the past few years, but they still manage to get games on good linear TV channels.

Bottom line, the networks understand which schools should be shown on TV and actually add value.

 

[billybud]

 

[Billy Jack]

Where are we?

 

[UConnJim]

If Syracuse is only playing 5 games on linear TV per year and 1 to 3 of them are against Clemson, FSU, and Notre Dame, don’t you think the listed numbers are skewed?

Think about it another way, let’s give UConn a schedule of Penn St., Michigan, Ohio St, and say FSU, UConn would be one of the most watched college football teams. That is why the numbers you are quoting are not the numbers the real decision makers are using to determine what games to put on TV.