Colorado in the Dance?

[azfan]

Does Colorado have an argument to make the big dance?

Currently ranked 41 in Massey right behind West Virginia and ahead of Creighton. Colorado may finish the season with 17 wins. However they will have a boat load of quality losses in the Pac.

Using the Arizona argument do these quality losses propel Colorado into the tournament. Is Colorado a team comparable to Michigan, Nebraska, or even Ohio State?

 

[willtalk]

If it plays out like last year, probable not. They seemed to have the Pac 12 locked into 6 bids Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Oregon St. UCLA and Arizona St. at the very start of the season. For any other team to make it would have required on of the others to get pushed out. They appear to be doing the same thing this season locking them into a certain amount of bids that all the teams need to fight for.

 

[DefenseBB]

Looking at RPI, Colorado is #50 and 0-6 in Quadrant 1 and their NC SoS is 271. There is no conspiracy against PAC12 teams. You need to earn it and for as much as I loathe the SEC, they have 7 teams that have better resumes than Colorado. Now if the Buffs can win a few games against the top 6 in the PAC12 they will have a case to be included. In having seen them play 4 times this year, they are at best a bubble team and given their metrics the committee uses, they are not looking good.

 

[WestCoast]

Does Colorado have an argument to make the big dance?

Currently ranked 41 in Massey right behind West Virginia and ahead of Creighton. Colorado may finish the season with 17 wins. However they will have a boat load of quality losses in the Pac.

Using the Arizona argument do these quality losses propel Colorado into the tournament. Is Colorado a team comparable to Michigan, Nebraska, or even Ohio State?

Nope. Colorado should mentally prepare to be in the WNIT at the end of the season. That consolation prize did wonders for springboarding Arizona to success this season.

 

[azfan]

Nope. Colorado should mentally prepare to be in the WNIT at the end of the season. That consolation prize did wonders for springboarding Arizona to success this season.

I tend to agree with you. I was making the point to reflect back on Massey ratings. It's hard to know what ratings will show a month from now but if trend continues Colorado will be higher at Massey than two or three Big Ten teams that are expected to make the dance.

So considerations other than Massey and strength of conference come into play. Perhaps Colorado's quality losses are not of the same quality as losses by the bottom Big Ten teams expected to dance.

 

[DefenseBB]

I tend to agree with you. I was making the point to reflect back on Massey ratings. It's hard to know what ratings will show a month from now but if trend continues Colorado will be higher at Massey than two or three Big Ten teams that are expected to make the dance.

So considerations other than Massey and strength of conference come into play. Perhaps Colorado's quality losses are not of the same quality as losses by the bottom Big Ten teams expected to dance.

While I love Massey, the selection committee uses RPI, team rankings in polls (Gawd knows why) and Won/Loss records.
That’s why I listed their RPI. Their projected 17-12 record before Vegas says WNIT.
We have all been hoping that both the MCBB and WCBB Committees would use the same criteria but they don’t. That even said, I don’t think they belong in the NCAAT.

 

[DefenseBB]

So @azfan has me intrigued at the bottom 4 BigTen teams vs. Colorado so here's the analysis and it's pretty close, at the moment.
The top 4 are shoe-ins (Massey/RPI rank): Maryland 8/9, NW 13/16, Indiana 16/13, Iowa 18/12
Bottom 4 are:
tOSU 31/28 12-9 and 5-5 Massey projected finish 16-13 and 9-9 (6-10 in Quad1 RPI)
Michigan 34/39 14-7 and 5-5 projected 19-7 and 10-8
Purdue 35/33 15-8 and 6-5 projected 19-11 and 9-9
Rutgers 36/46 16-5 6-4 projected 20-9 and 10-8

Colorado is 41/50 14-7 and 3-7 and may finish 17-12 and 6-12 (0-11 in Quad1 RPI)

It becomes clear that Michigan, Purdue and Rutgers (this hurts to type) are all better than Colorado and in the dance.
Does Colorado have a better resume than tOSU at the end point? No, they don't by the 0-11 vs. 6-10 Quad1 records.

So, yes, the Crème Bracketology is correct on this.

 

[Plebe]

Does Colorado have an argument to make the big dance?

Currently ranked 41 in Massey right behind West Virginia and ahead of Creighton. Colorado may finish the season with 17 wins. However they will have a boat load of quality losses in the Pac.

Using the Arizona argument do these quality losses propel Colorado into the tournament. Is Colorado a team comparable to Michigan, Nebraska, or even Ohio State?

Massey ranking is irrelevant to tournament selection. It's a nice metric but I've never seen a shred of evidence that the WBB committee ever uses it.

RPI is #50 and, even more importantly, they have zero wins over other teams in the top 50. They also have a "bad" loss to Utah (outside the RPI top 100). As of today they would be left out of the tournament.

That was why I said they needed that win over Stanford in the worst kind of way. With that win, I believe they'd be in as of now.

Colorado will have more chances: they get Stanford and the Arizona schools at home, and a road game at UCLA. A win in any one of those 4 games just might be enough. Then there's always the P12 tournament.

 

[azfan]

I appreciate the analysis. I do agree Colorado will have opportunities for upsets over the last four weeks but it will be a tall order. I'm hoping if they do get an upset it's Arizona and not ASU.

It's just interesting at this point in the season that they're looking out in spite of at least one good loss on their resume while the 7, 8, 9 teams in the Big Ten seem to be on the inside looking out.

I can see Ohio State has a big win which clearly is in their favor. I'm not real sure the Colorado and its profile is that much different from Nebraska for example.

Massey ranking is irrelevant to tournament selection. It's a nice metric but I've never seen a shred of evidence that the WBB committee ever uses it.

RPI is #50 and, even more importantly, they have zero wins over other teams in the top 50. They also have a "bad" loss to Utah (outside the RPI top 100). As of today they would be left out of the tournament.

That was why I said they needed that win over Stanford in the worst kind of way. With that win, I believe they'd be in as of now.

Colorado will have more chances: they get Stanford and the Arizona schools at home, and a road game at UCLA. A win in any one of those 4 games just might be enough. Then there's always the P12 tournament.

View attachment 50643

I appreciate the analysis. I do agree Colorado will have opportunities for an upset over the last four weeks but it will be a tall order. I'm hoping if they do get an upset it's Arizona and not ASU.

It's just interesting at this point in the season that they're looking out in spite of at least one good loss on their resume while the 7, 8, 9 teams in the Big Ten seem to be on the inside looking out.

I can see Ohio State has a big win which clearly is in their favor. I'm not real sure the Colorado and its profile is that much different from Nebraska for example.

 

[Plebe]

I appreciate the analysis. I do agree Colorado will have opportunities for an upset over the last four weeks but it will be a tall order. I'm hoping if they do get an upset it's Arizona and not ASU.

It's just interesting at this point in the season that they're looking out in spite of at least one good loss on their resume while the 7, 8, 9 teams in the Big Ten seem to be on the inside looking out.

I can see Ohio State has a big win which clearly is in their favor. I'm not real sure the Colorado and its profile is that much different from Nebraska for example.

What do you mean by "at least one good loss on their resume"?

I am guessing that you're misinterpreting what Creme said on the broadcast Monday. Simply losing to a bunch of good teams doesn't get you into the tournament.

Colorado's nonconference schedule was bad. Beating teams ranked outside the top 100 is useless. Arizona's was even worse, but at least they're now getting good wins in conference.

 

[Dokey]

If Colorado were in virtually any other conference, they would be looking at a 20-25 win season. But they are young and playing with the best will pay off down the road. But they’d love to have last seconds of UCLA and Stanford games back.

 

[DefenseBB]

If Colorado were in virtually any other conference, they would be looking at a 20-25 win season. But they are young and playing with the best will pay off down the road. But they’d love to have last seconds of UCLA and Stanford games back.

Umm, and we know this for a fact as what? Because they played the #277 ranked out of conference schedule to pad their 11-0 record? Their best win is against a USC RPI rank 85 team. Their 3 conference wins are USC, California and Utah. Close but no cigar is still, no cigar. This weekend, they need to prove your theory by whooping the Washington schools. I am not convinced that can happen...

 

[WestCoast]

If Colorado were in virtually any other conference, they would be looking at a 20-25 win season. But they are young and playing with the best will pay off down the road. But they’d love to have last seconds of UCLA and Stanford games back.

Maybe 20-22 wins. 25 wins may be pushing it without that soft nonconference schedule.

 

[domerduck]

If it plays out like last year, probable not. They seemed to have the Pac 12 locked into 6 bids Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Oregon St. UCLA and Arizona St. at the very start of the season. For any other team to make it would have required on of the others to get pushed out. They appear to be doing the same thing this season locking them into a certain amount of bids that all the teams need to fight for.

It is disappointing as last year, USC was the first team out. I am not sure they woudl have got in even if they had one that first game of the PAC12 tourney which they lost to Arizona. Last year though 5 of those 6 PAC12 teams made it to the Sweet 16 and Zona won the WNIT. Only Cal didn't make it, but they made it to the round of 32, then lost to eventual National Champion Baylor. I really believe the PAC12 deserves 7 this year and Colorado should be in.

 

[domerduck]

So @azfan has me intrigued at the bottom 4 BigTen teams vs. Colorado so here's the analysis and it's pretty close, at the moment.
The top 4 are shoe-ins (Massey/RPI rank): Maryland 8/9, NW 13/16, Indiana 16/13, Iowa 18/12
Bottom 4 are:
tOSU 31/28 12-9 and 5-5 Massey projected finish 16-13 and 9-9 (6-10 in Quad1 RPI)
Michigan 34/39 14-7 and 5-5 projected 19-7 and 10-8
Purdue 35/33 15-8 and 6-5 projected 19-11 and 9-9
Rutgers 36/46 16-5 6-4 projected 20-9 and 10-8

Colorado is 41/50 14-7 and 3-7 and may finish 17-12 and 6-12 (0-11 in Quad1 RPI)

It becomes clear that Michigan, Purdue and Rutgers (this hurts to type) are all better than Colorado and in the dance.
Does Colorado have a better resume than tOSU at the end point? No, they don't by the 0-11 vs. 6-10 Quad1 records.

So, yes, the Crème Bracketology is correct on this.

Last year the Big 10 got 6 teams into the NCAA tournament, but only got 1 into the Sweet 16. Maryland, a 3 seed, lost to UCLAS a 6 seed. Rutgers, a 7 seed, also lost to a worse seed in the 1st round. Overall the Big 10 went 7-6 and only Indiana beat a team with a better seed. The Pac 12 got ASU, a 5 seed, as well as UCLA into the sweet 16, along with the 3 teams that hosted (Oregon, OSU, & Stanford). They ended up 14-6 and had 3 teams that played better than their seeding. I don't see how the Big 10 deserves 8 or 9 teams this year as Creme has been projecting all year.

You may be right that those Big 10 teams migth get in the dance, but I'd take Colorado over those 4 teams you mentioned any day. I expect the Big 10 to lay a big egg in the NCAA again as they always do.

 

[DefenseBB]

Last year the Big 10 got 6 teams into the NCAA tournament, but only got 1 into the Sweet 16. Maryland, a 3 seed, lost to UCLAS a 6 seed. Rutgers, a 7 seed, also lost to a worse seed in the 1st round. Overall the Big 10 went 7-6 and only Indiana beat a team with a better seed. The Pac 12 got ASU, a 5 seed, as well as UCLA into the sweet 16, along with the 3 teams that hosted (Oregon, OSU, & Stanford). They ended up 14-6 and had 3 teams that played better than their seeding. I don't see how the Big 10 deserves 8 or 9 teams this year as Creme has been projecting all year.

You may be right that those Big 10 teams migth get in the dance, but I'd take Colorado over those 4 teams you mentioned any day. I expect the Big 10 to lay a big egg in the NCAA again as they always do.

Domerduck-I am not saying the Big10 is elite, only deep. All of those teams resume's are better than Colorado's and is why they will get a bid. Can Colorado beat any of them, not the way JR Payne is scheduling. I think the Buffs have talent but what evidence is there they are better than tOSU or Purdue or Rutgers? Again, their best win this year is over USC #85 in RPI. Look at their quadrant wins, it's pathetic. So the eye test can indicate one thing but the metrics say something completely different. Schedule harder teams to warrant a true discussion.

 

[Plebe]

If it plays out like last year, probable not. They seemed to have the Pac 12 locked into 6 bids Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Oregon St. UCLA and Arizona St. at the very start of the season. For any other team to make it would have required on of the others to get pushed out. They appear to be doing the same thing this season locking them into a certain amount of bids that all the teams need to fight for.

Who is "they"? As for the Pac-12 being "locked in" to a certain number of bids, that's just not how it works at all. Bids are not apportioned out to conferences like the electoral college. Each team's resume is evaluated on an individual basis.

 

[Plebe]

Last year the Big 10 got 6 teams into the NCAA tournament, but only got 1 into the Sweet 16. Maryland, a 3 seed, lost to UCLAS a 6 seed. Rutgers, a 7 seed, also lost to a worse seed in the 1st round. Overall the Big 10 went 7-6 and only Indiana beat a team with a better seed. The Pac 12 got ASU, a 5 seed, as well as UCLA into the sweet 16, along with the 3 teams that hosted (Oregon, OSU, & Stanford). They ended up 14-6 and had 3 teams that played better than their seeding. I don't see how the Big 10 deserves 8 or 9 teams this year as Creme has been projecting all year.

You may be right that those Big 10 teams migth get in the dance, but I'd take Colorado over those 4 teams you mentioned any day. I expect the Big 10 to lay a big egg in the NCAA again as they always do.

Whenever I hear people say "such and such a conference deserves X number of bids," I know they have no idea how tournament selection works.

Bids are earned individually, by teams. Not by conferences.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Colorado's OOC schedule was abysmal. Like, nearly as bad as Arizona abysmal. Unless Colorado can beat some of the top 5-6 teams in the PAC, I don't see why they deserve a bid, even if, by the eye test, they are a solid if not spectacular team. Truly no one to blame but themselves if they can't pick off some top of the PAC wins and they exclusively beat up on little sisters of the poor in Nov. and Dec.

 

[DefenseBB]

Colorado's OOC schedule was abysmal. Like, nearly as bad as Arizona abysmal. Unless Colorado can beat some of the top 5-6 teams in the PAC, I don't see why they deserve a bid, even if, by the eye test, they are a solid if not spectacular team. Truly no one to blame but themselves if they can't pick off some top of the PAC wins and they exclusively beat up on little sisters of the poor in Nov. and Dec.

Thank you my fine PAC12 colleague. I would love for Colorado or Utah to get bids but they have to play other good teams. I would root for them against Virtually ANY of the SEC teams and the large bulk of the BigTen teams if they were to play them.
Has either coach made any comments about this? At least Adia did address it (though not very well) and Arizona has won games against the top 6 teams in the conference.
So to all those who want to say “xx” team deserves a bid, how about referencing evidence to support your belief? I regularly give my reasoning yet when objections arise, I see a lack of support as to why.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Heeee’s baaaaaccckkk! Thank you my fine PAC12 colleague.

Let's just say my absence was not my choice.

So to all those who want to say “xx” team deserves a bid, how about referencing evidence to support your belief? I regularly give my reasoning yet when objections arise, I see a lack of support as to why.

Totally agree. I do think Colorado looks like a tournament team, but given the number of auto-bids, year in, year out, many teams that don't make the dance regularly look like they could be tournament teams. Which is why a team needs to also build a record of wins demonstrating their desert. As you say, no such record exists in the case of the Buffs, but it's not too late. The upside to playing in the PAC-12 is that quality wins are available nearly every weekend.

 

[LOhunter]

If Colorado were in virtually any other conference, they would be looking at a 20-25 win season. But they are young and playing with the best will pay off down the road. But they’d love to have last seconds of UCLA and Stanford games back.

"Playing with the best may pay off" in future seasons if they can ever beat any of the top teams in the PAC but frankly, its not likely to happen when you look at rosters and incoming recruits. What will pay off for Colorado is to schedule and win games with the 7,8, 9 big ten teams and others at that level to actually have top 100 wins before the beginning of the PAC 12 portion of the season. In other words, don't play the cup cakes preseason because it does nothing to support a bid to the NCAA tournament.

 

[willtalk]

Sometimes scheduling teams is easier said than done. It is harder for those teams farther west to schedule better teams because they generally have nothing to gain coming out west for a one and one. The travel along with the odds of getting beat by a team that has historically not had a good RPI is against that,. The Arizona schools have mentioned that it has been hard to get medium ranked teams to come out so they get stuck with the lower-ranked ones.

 

[DefenseBB]

We can now lock-up this thread as the point is moot about Colorado having lost last night against WSU after being up by 13 at the half. While we were thinking they needed an upset against the top 6, they need a key win or 2 over the top 3..

 

[bballnut90]

Sometimes scheduling teams is easier said than done. It is harder for those teams farther west to schedule better teams because they generally have nothing to gain coming out west for a one and one. The travel along with the odds of getting beat by a team that has historically not had a good RPI is against that,. The Arizona schools have mentioned that it has been hard to get medium ranked teams to come out so they get stuck with the lower-ranked ones.

Not buying that excuse when theyre #277 for OOC.