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Message: [QUOTE="UConnJim, post: 3528825, member: 1559"] It is possible that it becomes every conference for themselves as COVID-19 has hit different states harder. Thus, colleges in some states may open for the fall and some may be closed. My guess is the universities in the states hardest hit by the virus are the ones most likely to not open for the fall. So which conferences would be most impacted? Using the NY Times deaths per 100,000 data (in paper 4/22) and analyzing it by each state in a conference: [B]Big 12 states[/B]: average = 2.2 deaths per 100k, median = 2.6 deaths per 100k [B]Pac 12 states[/B]: average = 4.4 deaths per 100k, median = 3.0 deaths per 100k [B]SEC states[/B]: average = 6.1 deaths per 100k, median = 3.8 deaths per 100k [B]AAC states[/B]: average = 7.9 deaths per 100k, median = 4.0 deaths per 100k. [B]Big 10 states[/B]: average = 12.7 deaths per 100k, median = 9.4 deaths per 100k [B]ACC states + ND[/B]: average = 15.0 deaths per 100k, median = 5.7 deaths per 100k [U]States hardest hit by coronavirus[/U]: 1. [B]NY[/B] @ 76.2 deaths per 100k: Syracuse (ACC) 2. [B]NJ[/B] @ 53.5 deaths per 100k: Rutgers (Big 10) 3. [B]Louisiana[/B] @ 30.2 deaths per 100k: LSU (SEC) and Tulane (AAC) 4. [B]Massachusetts[/B] @ 28.5 deaths per 100k: BC (ACC) 5. [B]Michigan[/B] @ 27 deaths per 100k: Michigan (Big 10) and Michigan St. (Big 10) 6. [B]Pennsylvania[/B] @ 12.3 deaths per 100k: Penn St. (Big 10), Pitt (ACC), Temple (AAC) 7. [B]Illinois[/B] @ 11.7 deaths per 100k: Illinois (Big 10) and Northwestern (Big 10) 8. [B]Maryland[/B] @ 9.7 deaths per 100k: Maryland (Big 10) and Navy (AAC) 9. [B]Indiana[/B] @ 9.4 deaths per 100k: Indiana (Big 10), Purdue (Big 10), Notre Dame (ACC) 10. [B]Washington[/B] @ 9.0 deaths per 100k: Washington (Pac 12) and Washington St. (Pac 12) [U]Conference schools in the hardest hit 10 states[/U]: Big 12 = 0 SEC = 1 Pac 12 = 2 AAC = 3 ACC = 4 (including ND) Big 10 = 9 When I look at the data, I think the Big 12 and SEC could play in the fall. Pac 12 is up in the air, but my guess is it will depend on what the Governor of California decides about allowing universities to open. The AAC has some problem areas. The southern schools in the ACC could probably play, but not the northern schools. Would the ACC do that? Finally, I don't see how the Big 10 plays football this fall. [/QUOTE]

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