Cincy Win Critical To At-Large Bid

[Sphinx]

When you think about it, the team's at-large paths to the NCAAT aren't that many. I certainly don't agree with Don Amore that if they beat SMU Thursday, they can start thinking about seeding.

Imagine this. UConn wins out except for Saturday's game at Cincy. (They beat SMU twice.) They go into the AAC tourney 23-8 but lose in the 2nd round to either Temple or Cincy. The team they lose to loses the title game.

Does UConn get the first at-large pick out of the AAC over a team with 20+ wins that beat them three times, the last time enroute to the title game?

Better not count on it -- or better hope for three bids for the AAC (not likely).

In a word, UConn had better not lose three times to the AAC tourney runner-up. Losing three times to the champ, not so bad -- might till get the second bid. Beating Cincy on Saturday is very important, more important, probably, than beating SMU twice, imo.

 

[BFieldHusky]

If UConn goes 5-1 the rest of the way (while sweeping SMU twice and losing at Cincy) they are a LOCK for the field. Lunardi has them as a 9 seed as of today. 2 SMU wins would give them 5 Top 50 RPI wins, and 9 Top 100 wins as long as Houston stays in the Top 100. They would be playing for seeding in the American tournament.

You are crazy if you think beating Cincy once is better than beating SMU TWICE.

 

[mdkhusky]

if we beat smu thursday and beat usf ucf and hosuton were all set

 

[Kitaman]

This bubble talk in mid February is depressing. Its not what I envisioned we would be discussing now, back in November.

Those two Temple conference losses are bad to me, should have won one.

Sorry but if this team of good players can't beat SMU at least once, or even Cincy then I'm ready to accept an NIT fate, if that's what happens.

 

[Sphinx]

if we beat smu thursday and beat usf ucf and hosuton were all set

Wish it were so.

 

[mdkhusky]

Wish it were so.

id be willing to bet money

 

[Jerry1714]

When you think about it, the team's at-large paths to the NCAAT aren't that many. I certainly don't agree with Don Amore that if they beat SMU Thursday, they can start thinking about seeding.

Imagine this. UConn wins out except for Saturday's game at Cincy. (They beat SMU twice.) They go into the AAC tourney 23-8 but lose in the 2nd round to either Temple or Cincy. The team they lose to loses the title game.

Does UConn get the first at-large pick out of the AAC over a team with 20+ wins that beat them three times, the last time enroute to the title game?

Better not count on it -- or better hope for three bids for the AAC (not likely).

In a word, UConn had better not lose three times to the AAC tourney runner-up. Losing three times to the champ, not so bad -- might till get the second bid. Beating Cincy on Saturday is very important, more important, probably, than beating SMU twice, imo.

There is 0% chance that if UConn wins out except the Cincy game they do not make the tournament. ZERO. They would have an RPI of 25 with that.

 

[mdkhusky]

if we beat smu and then houston again that adds 2 top 100 wins....and were looking at an 8-10 seed if the season ended today....

 

[Mots010]

Winning at Cincy is not critical to making the tournament.

 

[tcf15]

As it relates to an NCAA Tournament bid, I think people are having difficulty separating a terrible season, similar to the one UConn had last year, from a disappointing season, which is what UConn is in the midst of right now. At this point in the season last year, UConn needed to string together a few wins just to be considered for First Four Out.

As disappointing as this season has been, UConn is nowhere near the bubble.

 

[Hi-Low]

I think we can go 4-2 with loses @Cincy, @SMU and be in....might be a "play-in" game depending on rest of field but in. SMU & Houston at home are the critical must win games...lose 1 of those then need to win @Cincy or @SMU. If lose to UCF or USF then all bets are off.

 

[Sphinx]

Let's see if I have this straight, "If UConn loses to Cincy on Saturday, and loses to Cincy for a third time in the tourney, and Temple beats Cincy for the title, then UConn gets the at-large bid over Cincy. " Okay, got it. Or was it that the AAC in now a 3-bid conference? So much to learn.

 

[tzznandrew]

As it relates to an NCAA Tournament bid, I think people are having difficulty separating a terrible season, similar to the one UConn had last year, from a disappointing season, which is what UConn is in the midst of right now. At this point in the season last year, UConn needed to string together a few wins just to be considered for First Four Out.

As disappointing as this season has been, UConn is nowhere near the bubble.

Seriously. There was a depressing season. I looked back, and watched me say:

Honestly, they're not out at all, even with a loss @Cincy or @SMU. They lose just those 2, and they'll go into the AAC tournament 21-9 with an RPI in the mid-30s and an SOS in the low 50s.

That's almost certainly a tournament team, especially if they win @Temple, and beat Tulsa and SMU at home. Even throwing another loss in there, at 20-10 (depending on the loss), they'll have a upper 30s-low40s RPI...so, a solid bubble team.

But, this team has sadly not given us the confidence that such a feat is within their ability.

Yet, other UConn teams have looked worse and still had great runs in them.

And then:

If we win all our games, except @SMU, we'd go into the AAC tournament at 20-10 with an RPI of 39 and an SOS of 57. That's potentially at large worthy...without any AAC games. (http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi)

Probably still don't get in, but it's possible they sneak in.

And then this giant turd of a thread (when they were 17-11):

The Bubble

I spent way too much time thinking about last year's team's chances. You could literally watch the delusion set in, and then deflate.

 

[Matt1010]

Let's see if I have this straight, "If UConn loses to Cincy on Saturday, and loses to Cincy for a third time in the tourney, and Temple beats Cincy for the title, then UConn gets the at-large bid over Cincy. " Okay, got it. Or was it that the AAC in now a 3-bid conference? So much to learn.

If that is the scenario and Cincy finishes the season without any bad losses the AAC is a 3 bid conference.

 

[Jerry1714]

Let's see if I have this straight, "If UConn loses to Cincy on Saturday, and loses to Cincy for a third time in the tourney, and Temple beats Cincy for the title, then UConn gets the at-large bid over Cincy. " Okay, got it. Or was it that the AAC in now a 3-bid conference? So much to learn.

Well as of today, it is a 3 bid league, and UConn and Cincy are not the final two teams battling it out for the last spot and I have no idea why you think they are. So yes, you do have so much to learn.

Cincy is hanging on by a thread right now, the game is vastly more important to them then us.

 

[Dove]

SADly...I see 2 losses v. SMU.

 

[Hi-Low]

Let's see if I have this straight, "If UConn loses to Cincy on Saturday, and loses to Cincy for a third time in the tourney, and Temple beats Cincy for the title, then UConn gets the at-large bid over Cincy. " Okay, got it. Or was it that the AAC in now a 3-bid conference? So much to learn.

Over thinking it all in terms of the AAC tourney ramifications & UConn/Cincy fighting it out for last at-large bid....doesn't really work that way. UConn & Cincy are evaluated on their own merits against the rest of the at-large field not in terms of AAC conference members. The AAC could easily get 3 bids this year but all 3 still have work to do.

 

[tcf15]

Seriously. There was a depressing season. I looked back, and watched me say:



And then:



And then this giant turd of a thread (when they were 17-11):

The Bubble

I spent way too much time thinking about last year's team's chances. You could literally watch the delusion set in, and then deflate.

I was right there with you - went to the last page of the thread you linked and I had uploaded a photo prior to the Memphis senior night game showing that UConn was one team removed from "Next Four Out" lol

 

[Jerry1714]

I was right there with you - went to the last page of the thread you linked and I had uploaded a photo prior to the Memphis senior night game showing that UConn was one team removed from "Next Four Out" lol

We were 14-11 at this time last year, and the NCAAT was dependent on the AACT, that was very very depressing.

 

[DALTX]

Please change thread title to UConn Win (not Cincy Win)

 

[Captbluefin]

SADly...I see 2 losses v. SMU.

I watched a few SMU games their bigs are going to eat us alive...They were great vs Gonzaga ..Beating us is a very high priority to them and their last chance of being relevant...

Many seem to think we are going to sweep them.... We need our best game of the year to beat them plus some bounces to finally go our way....

 

[intlzncster]

As it relates to an NCAA Tournament bid, I think people are having difficulty separating a terrible season, similar to the one UConn had last year, from a disappointing season, which is what UConn is in the midst of right now. At this point in the season last year, UConn needed to string together a few wins just to be considered for First Four Out.

As disappointing as this season has been, UConn is nowhere near the bubble.

People also seem to be discounting the fact that, without SMU, the conference tournament (and the auto bid that entails) is entirely winnable.

 

[gtcam]

I feel if we win the remaining games and split with SMU and lose to Cinci we are in
If we lose both to SMU and win the rest we are in
It will be a low seeding but we will be in
We all know what happens once we get our foot in the door!

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Our current bracket matrix average has us as the 2nd 9 seed. 74 of the 79 brackets have us in the field. And believe it or not, there are plenty of people who think the AAC can get 3 teams in.

Stating the obvious, we need to beat Houston, UCF and USF. If we win one additional regular season game, we're very, very likely in.

If we sweep SMU, Cincy could beat us 12 times between now and Selection Sunday and we'd still have a single digit seed.