Charlie Creme’s Bracketology (2019-2020)

[Shades]

There doesn’t seem to be one definitive thread on this topic, so here it is.

Updated for 12/23/19

Women's Bracketology: LSU, Iowa open on top line, but UConn is No. 1 overall

LSU and Iowa open as top seeds along with UConn and Utah. The Huskies are No. 1 overall in our first projection for 2023-24.

www.espn.com

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Hey, a top line in Greenville.

I'll overlook Stanford at the 2 and Indiana! as the 4.

 

[Plebe]

Still too early.

Way too many blanks to fill in with assumptions about how teams will perform in January and February. Oregon's best win so far is over Syracuse. Arkansas has beaten exactly no one (best win is over Wisconsin, which is 12th in the Big Ten per Massey).

Even UConn -- their #1 seed will depend almost entirely on showing well in their marquee games against Baylor, Oregon and SC. Probably need to win 2 of those 3 to guarantee a 1 seed. One out of 3 and it's a big maybe.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Hey, a top line in Greenville.

I'll overlook Stanford at the 2 and Indiana! as the 4.

A rematch with Indiana would be fun.

 

[Shades]

A rematch with Indiana would be fun.

Not for you guys!

 

[Alydar]

Still too early.

Way too many blanks to fill in with assumptions about how teams will perform in January and February. Oregon's best win so far is over Syracuse. Arkansas has beaten exactly no one (best win is over Wisconsin, which is 12th in the Big Ten per Massey).

Even UConn -- their #1 seed will depend almost entirely on showing well in their marquee games against Baylor, Oregon and SC. Probably need to win 2 of those 3 to guarantee a 1 seed. One out of 3 and it's a big maybe.

That works for all those teams. How many of Oregon's or Stanford's or OSU's game against each other UConn can they lose and still be guaranteed a 1 seed? And if Baylor loses to UConn what will be their guarantee of a 1 seed? Can S Carolina lose the SEC title and get a 1 seed?

This year can swing many different ways.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Not for you guys!

That's what Baylor thought.

 

[Plebe]

That works for all those teams. How many of Oregon's or Stanford's or OSU's game against each other UConn can they lose and still be guaranteed a 1 seed? And if Baylor loses to UConn what will be their guarantee of a 1 seed? Can S Carolina lose the SEC title and get a 1 seed?

This year can swing many different ways.

Yes, but the "plan B" landscape for those teams is a bit richer than UConn's.

Oregon, Stanford and OSU can more easily absorb some of those losses than UConn because they'll have plenty of other opportunities for top 10 and top 25 wins (against each other, against UCLA and Arizona). Barring a dramatic surge by other teams, UConn's only top 25 opponents will be the 3 teams I mentioned plus DePaul -- hence, less of a "safety net" in case things don't go their way in the 3 marquee games. South Carolina already has quality wins over Baylor and Maryland and others, and will almost certainly gain quite a few more in SEC play. Unfortunately, no one else in the AAC looks like they'll be even in the top 50.

You are right that Baylor's prospects are a bit more precarious if they lose to UConn, since for now West Virginia may be the only other top 25 team in the Big 12.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

UConn probably only plays a couple more games they are capable of losing and those potential losses probably won't hurt much.

With reputation and talent the worst possible result is a 2 seed. And what's really the difference there honestly.

 

[mbr33ct]

This can't be right, all top #1 seeds are not from the PAC-12.

 

[Shades]

Update

Women's Bracketology: LSU, Iowa open on top line, but UConn is No. 1 overall

LSU and Iowa open as top seeds along with UConn and Utah. The Huskies are No. 1 overall in our first projection for 2023-24.

www.espn.com

No. 1 seeds: South Carolina, Baylor, Louisville, Oregon

No. 2 seeds: UConn, Stanford, NC State, Oregon State

 

[triaddukefan]

Looks like Creme updated it again after monday night

One thing I hate about the Women's tournament.... is that they try to cut corners whenever possible.. in terms of sending lower seeded teams to a nearby site.

 

[Plebe]

Looks like Creme updated it again after monday night

One thing I hate about the Women's tournament.... is that they try to cut corners whenever possible.. in terms of sending lower seeded teams to a nearby site.

Which teams in the Big South or MEAC are you specifically thinking of?

 

[triaddukefan]

Which teams in the Big South or MEAC are you specifically thinking of?

Why it gotta be about the Big South or MEAC ? I'm talking on behalf of all the smaller conferences.


But since you bring up the Big South and the MEAC... and I am the official spokesperson of the Big South here on the BY... If Campbell makes it to the NCAA's for the first time since 2000..... and they get sent 30 miles away to play in Raleigh.... or if HPU makes it.. for the first time ever.... and they get sent to Columbia SC..... I will feel like the players wouldnt get the full experience of March Madness. Sure they would get to play a short distance from where the bulk of their fans reside.... but missing out on getting on a plane....... being in a city/place far away... and bonding with your team.... that's would be missing out a bit (in my opinion). The worst case of this happening is when Hampton traveled all the way to Norfolk to play a first round game vs Stanford... probably 2012?

 

[Plebe]

Why it gotta be about the Big South or MEAC ? I'm talking on behalf of all the smaller conferences.


But since you bring up the Big South and the MEAC... and I am the official spokesperson of the Big South here on the BY... If Campbell makes it to the NCAA's for the first time since 2000..... and they get sent 30 miles away to play in Raleigh.... or if HPU makes it.. for the first time ever.... and they get sent to Columbia SC..... I will feel like the players wouldnt get the full experience of March Madness. Sure they would get to play a short distance from where the bulk of their fans reside.... but missing out on getting on a plane....... being in a city/place far away... and bonding with your team.... that's would be missing out a bit (in my opinion). The worst case of this happening is when Hampton traveled all the way to Norfolk to play a first round game vs Stanford... probably 2012?

I hear ya.

But I will say that among non-revenue sports, it's not as bad in WBB as in other sports. In volleyball, for example, they only seed the top 16 teams and the other 48 teams are roughly grouped by tiers and the 1st and 2nd round matchups are *heavily* dictated by geography, more so than basketball where at least all 64 teams are seeded.

 

[maccca3232]

 

[TheFarmFan]

I think I am confused by Creme's logic.

By RPI, Louisville has 1 more quadrant 1 win, but by RPI, Stanford is ranked 4th and Louisville is *7th*. So if we care about RPI for quadrant calculations, why don't we care about RPI overall? Louisville's second best win per Q1 analysis is Central Michigan (RPI 18). Does anyone think they're the 18th best team in the country? If not, why do we care about that win? (Massey ranks Stanford 5 and Louisville 8.)

"Cards better in SOS"? Per WarrenNolan RPI, Louisville is 26th, Stanford is 27th. Okaaaay. (Massey has Stanford at 10th and Louisville at 18th.)

And yes, Louisville beat Oregon, which beat Stanford. But Stanford beat OSU, which beat Lousiville, as Creme admits.

Might as well just come out and say it: it's more convenient for everyone involved if the PAC-12 only gets one #1 seed, and *someone* from the ACC should get one...

It's all academic right now, and Stanford still needs to take care of business vs. UCLA and U$C first, but I kind of don't think there's a world where the PAC-12 can get two #1 seeds no matter who else loses unless they're really really bad losses. And I am confident that if Stanford loses to UCLA, they will drop by much more than Louisville non-dropped losing to a (worse) FSU team.

 

[CL82]

If Louisville becomes the #4 one seed, then I am fine with this. That means that UConn would be in their bracket rather than Oregon.

Sign me up for this today.

 

[Plebe]

I think I am confused by Creme's logic.

By RPI, Louisville has 1 more quadrant 1 win, but by RPI, Stanford is ranked 4th and Louisville is *7th*. So if we care about RPI for quadrant calculations, why don't we care about RPI overall? Louisville's second best win per Q1 analysis is Central Michigan (RPI 18). Does anyone think they're the 18th best team in the country? If not, why do we care about that win? (Massey ranks Stanford 5 and Louisville 8.)

"Cards better in SOS"? Per WarrenNolan RPI, Louisville is 26th, Stanford is 27th. Okaaaay. (Massey has Stanford at 10th and Louisville at 18th.)

And yes, Louisville beat Oregon, which beat Stanford. But Stanford beat OSU, which beat Lousiville, as Creme admits.

Might as well just come out and say it: it's more convenient for everyone involved if the PAC-12 only gets one #1 seed, and *someone* from the ACC should get one...

It's all academic right now, and Stanford still needs to take care of business vs. UCLA and U$C first, but I kind of don't think there's a world where the PAC-12 can get two #1 seeds no matter who else loses unless they're really really bad losses. And I am confident that if Stanford loses to UCLA, they will drop by much more than Louisville non-dropped losing to a (worse) FSU team.

Yeah, I'm just gonna say right now that his reasoning is highly debatable.

The difference between #26 and #27 SOS is as negligible as can be. And I *guarantee* that Stanford's SOS will be significantly better than Louisville's before all is said and done. Stanford finishes the season against the Oregon and Arizona schools. Louisville has only one top-50 opponent in its remaining 7 games.

I suppose one major advantage Louisville has is the win over Oregon, which is better than Stanford's best wins over Oregon State and Gonzaga.

I wouldn't give up on the idea of Stanford getting a #1 seed. A win over Oregon at home would for sure put them on the 1 line, and probably wouldn't drop Oregon. Even without a win over Oregon, Stanford has more chances than Louisville to enhance its resume over the next month.

 

[Plebe]

Perhaps, but realistically Stanford needs to beat Oregon twice: at home, and against in Vegas. Minus miraculous recoveries from Carrington and Jones, I simply don't see that happening. Even if Stanford wins out in the regular season but Oregon wins the PAC-12, do you think the committee will pick Stanford over presumptive ACC-tournament-winner Louisville, assuming they can win out the rest of the way? The only way I see that happening is if Louisville stumbles in the quarters or semis of the ACC tournament. And if both teams make the tournament title game but lose, I suspect they'll still give it to the CardinalS.

I don't think they need to beat Oregon twice. Once will probably suffice.

If Stanford beats Oregon (and doesn't slip up against lesser teams) and they still put Louisville ahead of Stanford just for winning the ACC, I'll be surprised.

Even if they don't beat Oregon, Stanford has 4 other games against teams in the top 30 of the RPI. Plus Colorado, who may or may not finish in the top 50. Louisville has only one more game against a top 50 team (NC State). (These numbers don't include the conference tournaments.)

Last year the ACC had two #1 seeds and the Pac-12 had none. No reason it can't be reversed this year.

 

[eebmg]

Just get us to Ft Wayne even as a 16th seed.

 

[domerduck]

For all the Huskies faithful have fretted this season, I'd pick this year's UConn team over anyone other than Baylor, Oregon, and S. Carolina in March, without hesitation. Kind of funny how those ended up being their three signature OOC games this season - I'd like their chances against just about anyone else, and yet UConn will be almost entirely devoid of Top 5-20 matchups prior to the post-season.

I hope they beat South Carolina Monday.

 

[Shades]

Latest update

Women's Bracketology: LSU, Iowa open on top line, but UConn is No. 1 overall

LSU and Iowa open as top seeds along with UConn and Utah. The Huskies are No. 1 overall in our first projection for 2023-24.

www.espn.com

 

[triaddukefan]

UNC-G deserves better than a 16 seed.

 

[Plebe]

UNC-G deserves better than a 16 seed.

Based on what evidence?