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UConn Athletics
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CFP expansion = el muerto
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[QUOTE="UConnJim, post: 4165022, member: 1559"] First, I want to make clear that I don't like the way the NCAA is run at all, but that doesn't mean that college athletics doesn't need a governing body. For those of you thinking you could eliminate Emmert and gain $4 million, that is what a P5 commissioner makes and you would still be paying someone who runs a $1 billion business about $4 million per year, so that is not a savings. Plus, out of the ~$44 million in NCAA management and general expense, only ~$13 million is salaries. (Running events falls under different categories of expenses.) And, current P5 athletic departments don't have the resources or capability to run a parallel NCAA organization. (Ask any AD if they have the ability or desire to do it.) The P5 would need to set up a new organization with the responsibilities currently handled by the NCAA. BTW, I do think the P5 will set up their own rules for football. Now, on to the numbers. Most important, the CBS NCAA men's tournament media deal runs through 2032, so I don't think you will see a change for the next decade. In conference realignment, it seems movement happens around media deals expiring. I don't disagree that D2 and D3 are paid $53 million and $35 million respectively. There are some revenue offsets as members pay dues, etc,.... of ~$16 million per year, but that includes all divisions. (Note: If you eliminated these payments, D2 and D3 athletics would have to be dramatically downsized. I'm not saying that D2 and D3 athletics should be dependent on the NCAA men's basketball tournament in order to succeed, but that is the current situation.) What I disagree with is that you could have a P5 only basketball tournament and still generate the same amount of media and ticket revenues. Right now, there are 67 games in the tournament. I guess the P5 could host an all-comers P5 tournament to keep the number of games flat, but I don't think that would generate the same level of interest and dollars. Think about this. There would be 14 states (small states) plus DC that would never have a participant and there are 12 states that could only possibly have 1 participant. How does that increase interest in the tournament? I would think the overall revenue pie would shrink, although it is possible that revenue per P5 school could go up. But, by how much? Let's assume that the P5 could keep all the current profit margin of the basketball tournament and eliminated the payout to the D2 and D3, that would result in about $300 million of maximum potential increase in payout. I'm assuming all the other revenues and expenses offset each other which I think is generally a fair assumption if they are managing all of the other functions of the NCAA. So, if you believe eliminating all the teams from outside the P5 and the P5 could keep the revenue flat (which I don't believe), the maximum increase in payout for the 69 P5 schools is ~$4.3 million per school. So my estimate of the potential increase per school would be $1 to $3 million per year, but even those numbers wouldn't happen if the tournament was only 32 teams. A potential $1 to $3 million per year is not an immaterial number, but it is not guaranteed and is the P5 willing to blow up a current cash cow and all NCAA championships, decimate D2 and D3 athletics, legal issues, etc for that level of increase in payout? I don't think so and I think you can make more money over time keeping the NCAA Tournament intact than you can by breaking it up. Also, would the P5 walk away from the assets of the NCAA? Some of the assets include $600 million on the NCAA balance sheet, a free HQ building in Indianapolis (ever wonder why the Final 4 in is Indianapolis ~every 5 years?), the March Madness trademark, past tournament rights,.... And what about the football concussion legal settlement which costs ~$25 million per year? The men's basketball tournament is currently paying for that. [/QUOTE]
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