Celebrating the Kiah-nator's final Stats. A slam for WNBA ROY?

[DobbsRover2]

So hold up your hand if you off-handedly mentioned to a friend after the WNBA draft, "You watch Kiah Stokes this year. I'm stating right now that her Win Shares for the year will be way higher than the total sum of all the 10 players picked before her."

Actually, you're pretty weird if you go around talking about WNBA Win Shares, and you don't likely have any friends to say that to. But the point is, Kiah's WS total of 3.6 is indeed better than the sum of the WS for the 10 player picked ahead of her by 0.7 points. And most of the 2.9 total for the 1-10 players is contributed by injured Liberty teammate Brittany Boyd, who was at 1.7. Sadly, KML was at -0.4, but #6 pick Hamby was even worse at -0.6. After early struggles, #1 pick Jewel Loyd finished up pretty well at 1.0, but the only stat categories she finished in the top 10 were in FTs and FT %.

As for Stokes, she was 9th in defensive rebounds, 8th in total rebounds, 2nd in blocks, 2nd in blocks per game, 3rd in blocks percentage, 9th in true shooting percentage, 3rd in defensive rating, and 2nd in defensive win shares. She was in the top 15 in win shares and in win shares per 48 minutes.

Flat out, no WNBA rookie had as big an impact as Kiah did this year, by a long shot. Just hoping certain voters also see it that way.

 

[Bgillon]

Great post. I do wish I knew what Win Shares were though.

 

[j66kicker]

So hold up your hand if you off-handedly mentioned to a friend after the WNBA draft, "You watch Kiah Stokes this year. I'm stating right now that her Win Shares for the year will be way higher than the total sum of all the 10 players picked before her."

Actually, you're pretty weird if you go around talking about WNBA Win Shares, and you don't likely have any friends to say that to. But the point is, Kiah's WS total of 3.6 is indeed better than the sum of the WS for the 10 player picked ahead of her by 0.7 points. And most of the 2.9 total for the 1-10 players is contributed by injured Liberty teammate Brittany Boyd, who was at 1.7. Sadly, KML was at -0.4, but #6 pick Hamby was even worse at -0.6. After early struggles, #1 pick Jewel Loyd finished up pretty well at 1.0, but the only stat categories she finished in the top 10 were in FTs and FT %.

As for Stokes, she was 9th in defensive rebounds, 8th in total rebounds, 2nd in blocks, 2nd in blocks per game, 3rd in blocks percentage, 9th in true shooting percentage, 3rd in defensive rating, and 2nd in defensive win shares. She was in the top 15 in win shares and in win shares per 48 minutes.

Flat out, no WNBA rookie had as big an impact as Kiah did this year, by a long shot. Just hoping certain voters also see it that way.

Kiah had a great rookie year, but but I was thinking your win shares comparison to higher draft picks might be flawed: Since the highest draft picks go to the worst teams, wouldn't you expect higher picks' teams to have fewer wins, hence fewer win shares available and less opportunity for a player to accumulate win shares? Kiah was drafted #11 in a 12-team league. Etc.

But, as it turns out, the Liberty, who owned the #11 pick on draft day, were a non-playoff team with a losing record in 2014. So, although win shares isn't necessarily a predictive statistic, you COULD actually make a case that Kiah has a high degree of responsibility for the Liberty's dramatically improved performance in 2015.

 

[BroadwayVa]

So hold up your hand if you off-handedly mentioned to a friend after the WNBA draft, "You watch Kiah Stokes this year. I'm stating right now that her Win Shares for the year will be way higher than the total sum of all the 10 players picked before her."

Actually, you're pretty weird if you go around talking about WNBA Win Shares, and you don't likely have any friends to say that to. But the point is, Kiah's WS total of 3.6 is indeed better than the sum of the WS for the 10 player picked ahead of her by 0.7 points. And most of the 2.9 total for the 1-10 players is contributed by injured Liberty teammate Brittany Boyd, who was at 1.7. Sadly, KML was at -0.4, but #6 pick Hamby was even worse at -0.6. After early struggles, #1 pick Jewel Loyd finished up pretty well at 1.0, but the only stat categories she finished in the top 10 were in FTs and FT %.

As for Stokes, she was 9th in defensive rebounds, 8th in total rebounds, 2nd in blocks, 2nd in blocks per game, 3rd in blocks percentage, 9th in true shooting percentage, 3rd in defensive rating, and 2nd in defensive win shares. She was in the top 15 in win shares and in win shares per 48 minutes.

Flat out, no WNBA rookie had as big an impact as Kiah did this year, by a long shot. Just hoping certain voters also see it that way.

It will be nice should Kiah win---it will make the 6 teams that missed picking her not great at assessing talent. How does Elizabeth Williams compare? My biased assessment was those that got EW missed the boat.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I think Kiah had the best start, but tapered off a bit, especially as offenses didn't challenge her in the lane. Obviously that's a good thing, but it lowered her block stats. Jewell came on later in the season. I think Loyd will be named ROY, but I think Kiah will finish a strong second. Can Kiah get another championship??

 

[DobbsRover2]

I think Kiah had the best start, but tapered off a bit, especially as offenses didn't challenge her in the lane. Obviously that's a good thing, but it lowered her block stats. Jewell came on later in the season. I think Loyd will be named ROY, but I think Kiah will finish a strong second. Can Kiah get another championship??

If Loyd is named ROY because of her 10.1 ppg, it will be a travesty and shows that the voters are lunkheads who don't look at a player's stats or season's play. Sure, after being a a 0.0 level for much of the year for Win Shares, a 1.0 finishing mark may not be bad, but then why not give the award to the Liberty's Brittany Boyd who had a much better season with a 16.5 ppg and 1.7 WS than a Loyd who shot 41.1% for FG% and a 20.9% 3-pt percentage and who had more turnovers than assists? Ouch!

Is that really the ROY in your books? Yes, I know an Irish fan will soon be responding with a chokehold answer that Loyd's stats are actually very good for a WNBA guard, but actually they're pretty bad. Yes she did get enough foul calls to keep herself barely in double-digits ppg, but there's only so long before the league's players figure out what your total game is and refuse to let you get those foul calls.

As to what Win Shares are, they supposedly take in all of the stats and facets of a game and try to figure out how much value you were for your team, whether it is bad or good. You can be a good player on a bad team and have a big WS, and you can be a bad player on a good team and have a negative WS. The Liberty would supposedly have lost 3.6 more games if Kiah wasn't on the roster, which would certainly have greatly affected the Liberty's chances for a good season. Kiah was a very good player on the best team and had the third best WS on the Liberty behind two top players, Prince and Charles. But of course her value to the team goes way beyond her WS's, because she and Swords have dominated in the center position and allowed Charles at power forward to have a massive year. And when Prince came back in, the team dominated.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

I agree ignorance will win over reality and Jewel Loyd will win ROY over Kiah Stokes! The Media has proven time and again the facts mean nothing and reputation means everything! Jewel Loyd came into the League the #1 choice from ND with the big Rep that almost got her Nat'l PY!
Kiah could possibly earn 3 awards as her stats are among the best! ROY/Def. PY/ 6th woman/ are all possible!

 

[2Husky]

Kiah would definitely be a good choice for all of those awards, but after 4 years at UConn I'm sure she won't care if she's overlooked, she's more focused on winning the real award, a championship.

 

[Striper69]

My prediction?

Kiah wins the ROY and her team wins the WNBA Championship...

 

[Alydar]

If Loyd is named ROY because of her 10.1 ppg, it will be a travesty and shows that the voters are lunkheads who don't look at a player's stats or season's play.

As I understand it the coaches vote for the all-rookie team but the ROY is a vote among the media so unfortunately the lunkheads will decide it.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Hopefully the media will at least be better than the ESPN voting public in deciding the award. Again as with Diggins for the ESPY MVP, if bad stats like 41% shooting and 21% on 3s and a 0.9 A\TO ratio makes you the best rookie, then the league is really sliding downhill fast. Might have been different if she had been doing it for a good team, but hers was 10-24. Basically she was contributing Lose Shares to the Storm.

 

[Orangutan]

But then why not give the award to the Liberty's Brittany Boyd who had a much better season with a 16.5 ppg and 1.7 WS than a Loyd who shot 41.1% for FG% and a 20.9% 3-pt percentage and who had more turnovers than assists? Ouch!

Is that really the ROY in your books? Yes, I know an Irish fan will soon be responding with a chokehold answer that Loyd's stats are actually very good for a WNBA guard, but actually they're pretty bad. Yes she did get enough foul calls to keep herself barely in double-digits ppg, but there's only so long before the league's players figure out what your total game is and refuse to let you get those foul calls.

That's 16.5 points per 36 minutes for Boyd, not per game. And if you're going to criticize Jewell Loyd's field goal percentage, Boyd's is 39.1%, actually worse than Loyd. Jewell also has a better EFG% and TS% Regardless, both of them shot poorly this season.

By the way, you continue to mis-characterize an argument I made in a thread several months ago and useit as a straw man. What I said back then was that Jewell had a good FG% last year for someone who shot so much. Find me a guard with a higher usage percentage and better FG%. It is simply very hard for high usage perimeter players to shoot anything better than the low 40s.

The difference is that Jewell's usage isn't that high for the Storm this year. She's just shooting poorly.

Anyway, if I had a vote for ROY, I would vote for Kiah.

 

[CocoHusky]

I would not be surprised if Jewel won the award over Kiah. I would hate it, disagree with it, and it would not be justified by the numbers but WNBA is badly in need of stars. These awards often come down to maketability and not productivity. By being the # 1 pick Jewel's name is already out there for WNBA to build on where as Kiah (productive as she is) is hardly know outside of the UCONN & NY liberty fanbase.

 

[Orangutan]

Hopefully the media will at least be better than the ESPN voting public in deciding the award. Again as with Diggins for the ESPY MVP, if bad stats like 41% shooting and 21% on 3s and a 0.9 A\TO ratio makes you the best rookie, then the league is really sliding downhill fast. Might have been different if she had been doing it for a good team, but hers was 10-24. Basically she was contributing Lose Shares to the Storm.

There was only one Storm player contributing negative win shares to the team and it wasn't Jewell Loyd, who was 4th on the team in Win Shares.

As to what Win Shares are, they supposedly take in all of the stats and facets of a game and try to figure out how much value you were for your team, whether it is bad or good. You can be a good player on a bad team and have a big WS, and you can be a bad player on a good team and have a negative WS.

Assuming you are using basketball reference's numbers, their description on win shares says in part "In my system, a basketball team that wins 50 games will have about 50 Win Shares, give or take." A team's total win shares is roughly equal to its total wins. So there are simply less win shares available to players on bad teams.

 

[DobbsRover2]

There was only one Storm player contributing negative win shares to the team and it wasn't Jewell Loyd, who was 4th on the team in Win Shares.



Assuming you are using basketball reference's numbers, their description on win shares says in part "In my system, a basketball team that wins 50 games will have about 50 Win Shares, give or take." A team's total win shares is roughly equal to its total wins. So there are simply less win shares available to players on bad teams.

Thanks for the correction on Boyd, as I was indeed looking at the per minutes table down by the WS advanced stats table.

I certainly did not mean to cite you when referring to a poor 41% FG shooting and abysmal 21% 3pt shooting for Loyd as relating to anything you have stated here. But I do hope you do not think UConn fans are so loony as to believe that a player who has been such a mediocre 2pt-3pt combo shooter as Loyd warrants any special consideration on the court. Sure, she has learned to draw a ton of FTs, and that is definitely something to laud her and her great Irish education for, but Loyd was allowed to take the second most shots on the team even though she had the second worst Effective FG%, far worse than KML who indeed had a lackluster season. I get that the Storm drafted her #1 and had to let her throw up a bunch of shots every game (though not at the 16 FGAs she had at ND, because this is the WNBA after all), but you're not going to do very well letting a poor-shooting rookie be a chucker, anymore than ND was going to win an NC using that strategy with a senior in the same role.

And I hope you are not seriously asking who among the "volume shooters" needs to be named as being better than Loyd? Seriously? Loyd's 8.9 FGAs were exceeded by many many guards on the other teams who make her 41.1 FG% and 42.8 eFG% look small. Just among guards who shot more for three teams in the East (Liberty-Sky-Fever), Prince at 46.7% and 51.2%, Poindexter at 43.9% and 47.2%, Vandersloot at 46.3% and 51.4%, Quigley at 43.1% and 48.6%, and Shenise Johnson at 46.7% and 52.7% are five players who you feel very okay about them taking a lot of shots because they convert effectively. Loyd certainly didn't do the job of an ROY or an effective chucker this year. If she does raise her game next year at least to the 44% and 47% area of 2015 Poindexter (Cappie was at 44% and 49% in her rookie year, and she had a 50+ eFG% in her better years), than I will be glad to cite Loyd as a player who has raised her game in the WNBA and should be a bona fide member of the Chuck'em Club. And if Loyd may have been the best of the volume shooting rookie guards in 2015 (tiny category), that's not something to hang an award around. It would be like rewarding the US for having the best yodeling team among Western Hemisphere countries whose name begins with a U.

But I do agree with you that Loyd had a bad shooting year that should not be rewarded and that Kiah should be ROY. And as to the prospects for Loyd to down the road have a good shooting year, we'll just have to see.

 

[Orangutan]

Thanks for the correction on Boyd, as I was indeed looking at the per minutes table down by the WS advanced stats table.

I certainly did not mean to cite you when referring to a poor 41% FG shooting and abysmal 21% 3pt shooting for Loyd as relating to anything you have stated here. But I do hope you do not think UConn fans are so loony as to believe that a player who has been such a mediocre 2pt-3pt combo shooter as Loyd warrants any special consideration on the court. Sure, she has learned to draw a ton of FTs, and that is definitely something to laud her and her great Irish education for, but Loyd was allowed to take the second most shots on the team even though she had the second worst Effective FG%, far worse than KML who indeed had a lackluster season. I get that the Storm drafted her #1 and had to let her throw up a bunch of shots every game (though not at the 16 FGAs she had at ND, because this is the WNBA after all), but you're not going to do very well letting a poor-shooting rookie be a chucker, anymore than ND was going to win an NC using that strategy with a senior in the same role.

And I hope you are not seriously asking who among the "volume shooters" needs to be named as being better than Loyd? Seriously? Loyd's 8.9 FGAs were exceeded by many many guards on the other teams who make her 41.1 FG% and 42.8 eFG% look small. Just among guards who shot more for three teams in the East (Liberty-Sky-Fever), Prince at 46.7% and 51.2%, Poindexter at 43.9% and 47.2%, Vandersloot at 46.3% and 51.4%, Quigley at 43.1% and 48.6%, and Shenise Johnson at 46.7% and 52.7% are five players who you feel very okay about them taking a lot of shots because they convert effectively. Loyd certainly didn't do the job of an ROY or an effective chucker this year. If she does raise her game next year at least to the 44% and 47% area of 2015 Poindexter (Cappie was at 44% and 49% in her rookie year, and she had a 50+ eFG% in her better years), than I will be glad to cite Loyd as a player who has raised her game in the WNBA and should be a bona fide member of the Chuck'em Club. And if Loyd may have been the best of the volume shooting rookie guards in 2015 (tiny category), that's not something to hang an award around. It would be like rewarding the US for having the best yodeling team among Western Hemisphere countries whose name begins with a U.

But I do agree with you that Loyd had a bad shooting year that should not be rewarded and that Kiah should be ROY. And as to the prospects for Loyd to down the road have a good shooting year, we'll just have to see.

Regarding the bold, I meant last year in college. For a pro, her shooting is just bad (and the 3-point shooting atrocious).

I think Loyd's shooting will improve over time. It got better over the course of the season, but efficiency will likely never be her calling card.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Assuming you are using basketball reference's numbers, their description on win shares says in part "In my system, a basketball team that wins 50 games will have about 50 Win Shares, give or take." A team's total win shares is roughly equal to its total wins. So there are simply less win shares available to players on bad teams.

Fewer win shares to go around ... but fewer good players to use them up, so it ends up being a wash. In fact, the whole win shares concept is designed so that being on a good team or bad team doesn't influence your win shares.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Yeah, I think Win Shares should come close to the total wins for a team, but for every team I checked the total came to 1 or 2 points less. Maybe there's some dark matter in there somewhere, sort of like deadball rebounds.

As to what will happen to Loyd, it will be interesting to see in her 2nd year. Many players show some improvement then, though a number have also had a sophomore slump and didn't really get things sorted out until their 3rd or 4th season. With new players just like with new MLB players, it takes a while for baseball teams to get used to how you pitch and bat, and sometimes great debuts get flattened out as word spreads that you have a nasty curveball or that you can't hit the curveball but can blast the fastballs. Loyd may well shoot 90+% on FTs again, but will she chock up 115 attempts next year if defenders are more determined not to foul an excellent FT shooter? As to the shooting, my guess is that she has found close to her level in the WNBA but that it could edge up to the 43% level, and a small increase like that can make a big difference if it is coupled with a 3pt mark that is well up from the 21% mark.

 

[Orangutan]

Loyd may well shoot 90+% on FTs again, but will she chock up 115 attempts next year if defenders are more determined not to foul an excellent FT shooter? As to the shooting, my guess is that she has found close to her level in the WNBA but that it could edge up to the 43% level, and a small increase like that can make a big difference if it is coupled with a 3pt mark that is well up from the 21% mark.

I think she can still earn FTs because she is explosive and a good finisher around the rim, so teams will still have to respect her drives, though most teams will probably go under screens against her.

43% is probably about right. That's close to Pondexter's career averages. Cappie is at 42.6% FG and 35.2% 3FG and she's a reasonable comparable for Loyd, I think.

 

[UcMiami]

Fewer win shares to go around ... but fewer good players to use them up, so it ends up being a wash. In fact, the whole win shares concept is designed so that being on a good team or bad team doesn't influence your win shares.

But that doesn't really work because even on a bad team, you are playing the same size roster (unless injury decimated) and tend to have a similar rotation - so your better players are just splitting a lot fewer shares.

 

[Scotter]

It usually takes at least a full season for perimeter players to adjust to the WNBA in terms of shooting efficiency and it's hardest on the smallest players because they have to take so many contest shots. Taurasi was only shooting 41% from the field and making less than a third of her 3PA her first 2 years in the league before she made the adjustment to the shot difficulty and got herself in WNBA shape as well. So it is a challenge for even bigger and more talented players than Loyd. Unless they are playing on a really good team where they don't have to be a high volume scorer it is going to be a struggle/

Skylar Diggins figured it out after an awful shooting rookie season, and I expect Loyd will figure it out as well and so will KML League average FG% in the WNBA is 45% and Loyd should be able to get near there and make up the difference with a high FT rate. She isn't going to shoot 20% on 3PA the rest of her career just like KML is going to shoot 28% on 3PA.

 

[Striper69]

Regarding the bold, I meant last year in college. For a pro, her shooting is just bad (and the 3-point shooting atrocious).

I think Loyd's shooting will improve over time. It got better over the course of the season, but efficiency will likely never be her calling card.

The competition went up many, many fold when she moved up to the WNBA.

She's no longer playing against college players- most of whom will no longer play BB after they leave college.

She's playing against the best in the world. Women all over the world dream of playing in this league- even for just one game. Jewell did good for a rookie.

She just wasn't Superwoman.

Not aimed at you, Orang- just want everybody to keep things perspective.

 

[DobbsRover2]

The competition went up many, many fold when she moved up to the WNBA.

She's no longer playing against college players- most of whom will no longer play BB after they leave college.

She's playing against the best in the world. Women all over the world dream of playing in this league- even for just one game. Jewell did good for a rookie.

She just wasn't Superwoman.

Not aimed at you, Orang- just want everybody to keep things perspective.

Well, not so sure about the "good" with the shooting percentage, but Loyd certainly had a better year than Dearrica Hamby's 35% shooting wreck, a player whom a lot of posters were slathering about and taking the reins of her bandwagon back in April before she exited her rookie season with a -0.6 win share. In the query about "Where will Kiah Stokes be drafted" post last April, CL82 nailed Kiah's upcoming year about as presciently as any Greek oracle could have done, while I think a lot of the other statements are ones that the posters will either disown or claim that they made after too many jello shots followed by a pig-out on Twinkies.

 

[Orangutan]

Guilty as charged on Hamby. But I haven't given up on her yet!

I feel more embarrassed for underestimating Kiah. I dismissed Striper saying that Chicago should be targeting Kiah. And now I wish Chicago had Kiah!

 

[meyers7]

It would be like rewarding the US for having the best yodeling team among Western Hemisphere countries whose name begins with a U.

But, you know, we may well have.