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Message: [QUOTE="auror, post: 4553676, member: 1329"] Not really. Providence and Xavier play tonight, so automatically one of them is going to lose the first of the 2 necessary games. After that, it's just losing 1 game for whichever of them is the loser. Providence plays Seton Hall, who is a tough and similar team (yes at home, so that helps but is not "nearly impossible"). Xavier is playing Butler, who already beat them once less than 3 weeks ago and Xavier in this hypothetical will be 4-4 without Freemantle. Certainly a loseable game. Just look at last year when Xavier was definitely going to make the NCAA tournament and just had to avoid losing to St. John's and Butler in the conference tournament. Oops. Thad Matta also owns Sean Miller (from his coaching tree). Creighton plays GTown and Depaul so is extremely likely to win both. We may win both. Since Creighton is 0-2 against Marquette and since they play each other, It is assured that 1 of the 2 of them will be in the 2/3, but the odds that both are there is more like 80/20. Since Providence has the game tonight at home, they're more likely to be 2/3, but anything can happen (and this isn't a 1% anything, it's more like a 20% anything.) [/QUOTE]