Can We Expect a Turnaround Next Year?

[RSTuthill]

With UConn FB seemingly headed for a one or two win season, what are the prospects for next year?

I am guessing that it will depend on five things:

1. Financial condition of the UConn Collective(s)
2. Allocation from the Collective(s) to football for salaries and signing bonuses
3. Loss of key personnel to the portal
4. Quality of incoming personnel from the portal
5. Development of non-transferring personnel

Roll all those up and what do you think?

Btw, my opinion is that for those who think that all UConn has to do is raise more cash earmarked for FB in the Collective(s), I think you are missing the point. Your argument implies that UConn does not know how to raise money. I think that is patently untrue, they are world class at it.

I think that it is more like UConn's rise in BB came a long time prior to the oughts decade which marked UConn's initial rise in FB. Thus the donor base has always been geared more towards BB. Additionally, BB wins natties which no one believes will ever happen with FB. That, and so much more money is required for FB due to the number of players means that the mission with FB is just to get it competitive enough that UConn can get a P4 invite. That's not really glamorous and the BB donors are happy with the BE anyway.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

With UConn FB seemingly headed for a one or two win season, what are the prospects for next year?

I am guessing that it will depend on five things:

1. Financial condition of the UConn Collective(s)
2. Allocation from the Collective(s) to football for salaries and signing bonuses
3. Loss of key personnel to the portal
4. Quality of incoming personnel from the portal
5. Development of non-transferring personnel

Roll all those up and what do you think?

Btw, my opinion is that for those who think that all UConn has to do is raise more cash earmarked for FB in the Collective(s), I think you are missing the point. Your argument implies that UConn does not know how to raise money. I think that is patently untrue, they are world class at it.

I think that it is more like UConn's rise in BB came a long time prior to the oughts decade which marked UConn's initial rise in FB. Thus the donor base has always been geared more towards BB. Additionally, BB wins natties which no one believes will ever happen with FB. That, and so much more money is required for FB due to the number of players means that the mission with FB is just to get it competitive enough that UConn can get a P4 invite. That's not really glamorous and the BB donors are happy with the BE anyway.

Makes me wonder how cordial the BB donors were towards Brett Yormark when he visited Connecticut.

 

[AllHusky]

With UConn FB seemingly headed for a one or two win season, what are the prospects for next year?

I am guessing that it will depend on five things:

1. Financial condition of the UConn Collective(s)
2. Allocation from the Collective(s) to football for salaries and signing bonuses
3. Loss of key personnel to the portal
4. Quality of incoming personnel from the portal
5. Development of non-transferring personnel

Roll all those up and what do you think?

Btw, my opinion is that for those who think that all UConn has to do is raise more cash earmarked for FB in the Collective(s), I think you are missing the point. Your argument implies that UConn does not know how to raise money. I think that is patently untrue, they are world class at it.

I think that it is more like UConn's rise in BB came a long time prior to the oughts decade which marked UConn's initial rise in FB. Thus the donor base has always been geared more towards BB. Additionally, BB wins natties which no one believes will ever happen with FB. That, and so much more money is required for FB due to the number of players means that the mission with FB is just to get it competitive enough that UConn can get a P4 invite. That's not really glamorous and the BB donors are happy with the BE anyway.

Don't know mush about #'s 1 and 2, but I just ran down the roster before seeing your post. Looks like alot of true Freshmen on it. How good are they as a group compared to the Seniors? I don't know, not a recruiting maven.

Mora seems like a positive person who likes kids. Can he create a narrative whereby the kids can buy into developing in Storrs? Obviously $ and winning are absolutely the be all end all, but there are glimmers out there. Will Mora, Benedict and the Alums be patient enough to see this process through to a plateau where you can say, that is what we can achieve without a P4 invite?

Look at Roberson, Joly, Rosa and Edwards. Local kids within a 200 mile radius. They seem to be a decent group that if they develop we'll be competent. Can Mora get coaches who know FB and can coach kids to play mistake free football? Where would be if we could play mistake free football? Not 0-5.

As noted, Football is a monster job, and we can do better, and we have. Will we? I'll be watching and supporting as we find out!

 

[Bongo Fury]

It is not as simple as more money equals success or higher rated recruits equal success. ATM and Texas prior to this year have had their struggles.

 

[huskysupporter]

The short answer is no.

Get a new AD who is pro football and knows how to navigate NIL and the portal and now we are talking.

But that isn’t going to happen.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Expect? No.
Possible? Yes.
Probable? Who knows but it won't be easy. Lose several linemen and there hasn't been anyone pushing for PT on the line.

 

[uchusky32]

Can we keep the stud QB coming in? Will his tape translate at this level? Will we coach him up?

 

[husky429]

There are teams out there doing better with less resources and talent. So yes, we could do better.

Can we expect it? Absolutely not.

We're going to be brutalized by the portal.

 

[Skies2018]

There are teams out there doing better with less resources and talent. So yes, we could do better.

Can we expect it? Absolutely not.

We're going to be brutalized by the portal.

This. We consistently get the least results out of every G5 school - many of whom have much less name recognition and money. It’s a problem with our Athletic Department. They simply do not know how to run a football program. They were fine in the OBE but without being in a power conference they’ve sucked at making good decisions (hiring chief among them).

So we need to rectify that first and foremost. Ideally we bring in a football minded AD but I don’t see that happening. Beyond that, yeah we just gotta pray the portal works in our favor.

 

[NEforceUConn]

There are teams out there doing better with less resources and talent. So yes, we could do better.

Can we expect it? Absolutely not.

We're going to be brutalized by the portal.

Why do you say, “We’re going to be brutalized by the portal”?

Reading the BY seems like 75% of posters think we suck and have subpar talent. So P4 teams are going to snatch and pay our 0-5 team players?

Rosa isn’t going anywhere. Have some faith!!

 

[RSTuthill]

Expect? No.
Possible? Yes.
Probable? Who knows but it won't be easy. Lose several linemen and there hasn't been anyone pushing for PT on the line.

To your point, never has professional succession planning been more important. Especially in this era of maximum SA egos and mobility. Many do not stick around long enough to receive proper development before demanding bigger roles and leaving in frustration if they do not get them.

It's like an analyst has to assign a best guess probability distribution on each player staying or leaving and then running a Monte Carlo analysis to compute a most likely Win-Loss record as a function of time. Doubt if anyone is there yet, but that is where this is going.

 

[RSTuthill]

Why do you say, “We’re going to be brutalized by the portal”?

Reading the BY seems like 75% of posters think we suck and have subpar talent. So P4 teams are going to snatch and pay our 0-5 team players?

Rosa isn’t going anywhere. Have some faith!!

The best ones will, yes, depending on the offers they get. And those players will have the offers nailed down before they enter the portal.

But you raise an interesting point. The players from Connecticut are likely to be more loyal.

 

[LBird33]

If we win games we will get better.

 

[KryHavok]

It's like an analyst has to assign a best guess probability distribution on each player staying or leaving and then running a Monte Carlo analysis to compute a most likely Win-Loss record as a function of time. Doubt if anyone is there yet, but that is where this is going.

As someone who has to model, didn't think I'd find anything on MCMC on PDF regarding our football success, but then the term "turnaround" hasn't been properly defined or parametrized. We'd need a bit Bayesian inference (okay gonna drop the science vernacular)...translation, I'd like to see how we end the season. We end 0-12, then one win next year is marginal turnaround. We get 4 wins this year and then get 7-8 next year, turnaround is more profound. Either way, it'll be an uphill battle the next 1.58 seasons.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Going to have to hit transfer portal even harder. Team is remarkable for its lack of depth.

Need WRs and DBs.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

I think we will get a turnaround this year. Watch out for it during Rice game.

 

[huskysupporter]

Going to have to hit transfer portal even harder. Team is remarkable for its lack of depth.

Need WRs and DBs.

Here is the issue - I think we are striking out for the most part in the portal. People get excited when there is a player that comes over from a huge big name school but it appears the ones we are getting were simply severely overrated when coming out of high school. (That’s not to say we haven’t gotten some great transfers like Guidone).

To do better in the portal we MUST increase NIL pool. And it is obvious that will not happen with this AD/University Administration.

Want to solve offense? Offer a boatload to a transferring QB with successful starting experience on a G5 or P5 team. That would be my priority 1, 2, and 3. Can the powers that B come up with mid 6 figures for a qb? Not a former 4 star prospect that hasn’t seen the field or has looked dreadful. I don’t care what the star rating was before they came to college. I care about how they have performed.

 

[RSTuthill]

Going to have to hit transfer portal even harder. Team is remarkable for its lack of depth.

Need WRs and DBs.

And for that money is now needed. Not just a warm and cozy atmosphere with a promise of a lot of PT. Gotta show them the money.

 

[Palatine]

Yep.

 

[ZooCougar]

With UConn FB seemingly headed for a one or two win season, what are the prospects for next year?

I am guessing that it will depend on five things:

1. Financial condition of the UConn Collective(s)
2. Allocation from the Collective(s) to football for salaries and signing bonuses
3. Loss of key personnel to the portal
4. Quality of incoming personnel from the portal
5. Development of non-transferring personnel

Roll all those up and what do you think?

Btw, my opinion is that for those who think that all UConn has to do is raise more cash earmarked for FB in the Collective(s), I think you are missing the point. Your argument implies that UConn does not know how to raise money. I think that is patently untrue, they are world class at it.

I think that it is more like UConn's rise in BB came a long time prior to the oughts decade which marked UConn's initial rise in FB. Thus the donor base has always been geared more towards BB. Additionally, BB wins natties which no one believes will ever happen with FB. That, and so much more money is required for FB due to the number of players means that the mission with FB is just to get it competitive enough that UConn can get a P4 invite. That's not really glamorous and the BB donors are happy with the BE anyway.

Why can’t you just enjoy this year?

Live in the moment Tuthill.

 

[RSTuthill]

Here is the issue - I think we are striking out for the most part in the portal. People get excited when there is a player that comes over from a huge big name school but it appears the ones we are getting were simply severely overrated when coming out of high school. (That’s not to say we haven’t gotten some great transfers like Guidone).

The two extremes captured by Ryan Fines and Mike Beaudry on one end and Jake Guidone and David Piendel on the other.

To do better in the portal we MUST increase NIL pool. And it is obvious that will not happen with this AD/University Administration.

Want to solve offense? Offer a boatload to a transferring QB with successful starting experience on a G5 or P5 team. That would be my priority 1, 2, and 3. Can the powers that B come up with mid 6 figures for a qb? Not a former 4 star prospect that hasn’t seen the field or has looked dreadful. I don’t care what the star rating was before they came to college. I care about how they have performed.

Those boatloads you reference do not seem to be stopping in Storrs.

 

[RSTuthill]

Why can’t you just enjoy this year?

Live in the moment Tuthill.

If this is your idea of enjoyment, then your life must truly suck. Seeing Rule #1 replayed time and again during the off-season, and then its corollary again and again on the gridiron during the season is your idea of fun? You must have a VERY high tolerance for frustration (not to mention your tolerance for losing).

 

[huskysupporter]

Those boatloads you reference do not seem to be stopping in Storrs.

And that is exactly why the program is dead.

Want to climb out of the abyss? It’s not about coaches. It’s not about on campus stadium. It’s about talent. And to get talent in todays landscape you need NIL money.

For a program as horrendous as ours even a little NIL for other positions would help get players away from many G5 schools. But we need to pony up big boy money for a qb. There is no way around it.

 

[RSTuthill]

As someone who has to model, didn't think I'd find anything on MCMC on PDF regarding our football success, but then the term "turnaround" hasn't been properly defined or parametrized. We'd need a bit Bayesian inference (okay gonna drop the science vernacular)...translation, I'd like to see how we end the season. We end 0-12, then one win next year is marginal turnaround. We get 4 wins this year and then get 7-8 next year, turnaround is more profound. Either way, it'll be an uphill battle the next 1.58 seasons.

You have made the most damning of all accusations to someone whose background is maths. I am truly hurt. The problem is not well-defined??

True, but let me suggest that the point you raise is moot. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. So for purposes of this discussion, each reader and poster is free to define turnaround however they would like. Within that reference point they may offer their views ... or not.

 

[RSTuthill]

And that is exactly why the program is dead.

Want to climb out of the abyss? It’s not about coaches. It’s not about on campus stadium. It’s about talent. And to get talent in todays landscape you need NIL money.

For a program as horrendous as ours even a little NIL for other positions would help get players away from many G5 schools. But we need to pony up big boy money for a qb. There is no way around it.

Agree, but do you have any evidence that UConn has not done that? I suspect they have with Welliver.