Can Marquette get a 2 seed if they win out?

[bballnut90]

Looks like a realistic possibility at this point. Their only losses are @ Miami, vs. Notre Dame and @ Mississippi State. The ND game was a blow out, the other 2 were good fights. They are slaughtering opponents right now in conference play and could easily run the table heading into the tournament, putting them at 30-3 entering the tournament. Right now they are 8 in Massey rating and #9/10 in the polls but their SOS drops as conference play continues.

Looking at the top 8 right now, this is where I see the rest of the season headed (this year has had a lot of unpredictability, so these assumptions should be taken with a grain of salt):

Heavy favorites:
Notre Dame-likely finishes with 2-4 losses. Should be a lock for a top 2 seed.
Baylor-likely finishes with 1-2 losses. Lock for top 2 seed
UCONN-finishes with 1-2 losses. Lock for top 2 seed
Mississippi State-likely finishes with 1-3 losses. Lock for top 2 seed.
Oregon-likely finishes with 2-4 losses. Lock for top 2 seed.

Likely safe:
Louisville-likely finishes with 2-5 losses. Should be safe if only losses are to ND, UCONN, ACC Tournament and NC State.
Stanford-likely finishes with 3-5 losses. Should be safe if they only lose to 1 Oregon school and in Pac-12 tournament

Toss up:
NC State-likely finishes with 3-6 losses. Their difficult ACC stretch is ahead, including games against ND, Louisville, Miami, FSU, and Syracuse, plus the ACC tournament. I don't see them holding a top 2 seed unless they beat the teams they should (aka everyone but ND/Louisville).


I think Marquette has a very good shot of slipping in as the last #2. They could be jumped by Oregon State, Utah, Gonzaga, or Maryland depending on how the season pans out but I can't recall the last time a non-UCONN mid major was strongly in the hunt for a top 2 seed.

 

[CocoHusky]

Entirely possible and likely.
If we use @vowelguy guesses at the poll rankings
Poll 1/28
Marquette would have to nudge out a Pac 12 team Oregon State or Stanford for that #2 seed.

 

[SimpleDawg]

They're already a #2 seed if you were to ask me.


...

 

[Vowelguy]

Entirely possible and likely.
If we use @vowelguy guesses at the poll rankings
Poll 1/28
Marquette would have to nudge out a Pac 12 team Oregon State or Stanford for that #2 seed.

My guess is for how AP voters WILL vote. Not how the committee WILL/SHOULD vote. Huge difference.

Their best wins are SDak St & DePaul. And they have a loss to Miami. That is not a very strong resume.
Compare for example Gonzaga which has a win over Stanford and a loss to BYU. They also (apparently) played ND closer.

 

[Plebe]

My guess is for how AP voters WILL vote. Not how the committee WILL/SHOULD vote. Huge difference.

Their best wins are SDak St & DePaul. And they have a loss to Miami. That is not a very strong resume.
Compare for example Gonzaga which has a win over Stanford and a loss to BYU. They also (apparently) played ND closer.

Agreed. Their resume has a low ceiling because they have no more opportunities for high-quality wins. For them to move as high as #2, they'll need teams like NC State and Oregon State to falter significantly.

 

[hussybulldog]

Not gonna happen, their best win was against Depaul which is no longer ranked....NC at least has a win against ND....so the selection committee needs to be fed with lots of Kool-aid to pick them as a #2 seed. Their best chance is a #4, if not #5 or 6.

 

[DefenseBB]

@vowelguy nailed it (as usual) That just because of the ineptitude of many of the voters has Marquette as a top 8 team, does not mean the selection committee will do that. I do think Marquette would garner a #3 seed however. I do think the PAC12 wouls6/should warrant 3 teams as top 2 seeds thought the timing of the losses could prove an impediment unless Oregon/Stanford/Utah wins outright to allow the others to slot in and OSU as a #3 seed.

Here’s an interesting question, where does the Big10 Winner (how high/low) get seeded-#3 or #4?
In other words are there 11 or 12 teams who will have a better resume than the Big12 Tourney champ?
Baylor,UConn, ND, Oregon, Stanford, MSU, Louisville, Ore St, Marquette are all locks to be seeded better than the Big10 with Utah, NC St, SC, Gonzaga all being in the discussion if they finish strong. I am curious what the board thinks?