Bubble Watch (3/3) | The Boneyard

Bubble Watch (3/3)

shizzle787

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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ACC
Locks: UNC, Duke
Should be in: Clemson (1 win to go), Virginia (1 win to go)
Work left to do: Wake Forest, Pitt

Big 12
Locks: Houston, Iowa State, Baylor, BYU, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should be in: TCU (1 win to go), Oklahoma (1 win to go)
Work left to do: Texas, Kansas State

Big East
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Should be in: None
Work left to do: Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, Villanova

Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Should be in: None
Work left to do: Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State

Mountain West
Lock: Utah State, Nevada
Should be in: SDSU (1 win to go), Boise State (1 win to go)
Work left to do: Colorado State, New Mexico

Pac-12
Locks: Arizona, Washington State
Should be in: None
Work left to do: Oregon, Colorado, Utah

SEC
Locks: Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida
Should be in: None
Work left to do: Mississippi State, Ole Miss

WCC
Locks: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Should be in: None
Work left to do: None

Others
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work left to do: Dayton, FAU, USF, Memphis, Indiana State
 
So you're saying that, w/o bid stealers from small conferences, there are 17 "work left to do" teams vying for 10 spots.

Personally, I think UVA could easily drop out of "should be in" with a first round exit in DC.
 
To get the maximum Big East bids root for the following (with nobody beating us):

Villanova: L @ Seton Hall, W vs Creighton, 1 win in BET
Seton Hall: W vs Villanova, W vs DePaul
Providence: W @ Georgetown, L vs UConn, 1 win in BET
St. John's: W @ DePaul, W vs. Georgetown, 1 win in BET

Everywhere else (with likelihood % in parantheses):
Indiana State needs to win the Missouri Valley (70%)
Grand Canyon needs to win the WAC (90%)
James Madison needs to win the Sun Belt (50%)
Dayton needs to win the A-10 and Richmond needs to lose before the final (40%)
FAU needs to win the American, USF needs to lose before the final, and Memphis needs to lose to FAU two more times (40%)
Utah needs to lose two of their final three (including in the Pac-12 tournament) (60%)
Colorado State needs to fall apart (50%)
Kansas State and Cincy need to continue to fall apart (60%)
Wake needs to lose two of its final three and Pitt needs an early exit from the ACC tournament (50%)
Iowa and Ohio State need to lose two more times each (60%)
Ole Miss and Miss State need to lose two more times each (60%)
 
storrsroars said:
So you're saying that, w/o bid stealers from small conferences, there are 17 "work left to do" teams vying for 10 spots.

Personally, I think UVA could easily drop out of "should be in" with a first round exit in DC.
Expand ...
Yes, although I think Kansas State, Ohio State, Iowa, and Ole Miss are in deep trouble.

If Virginia loses its last two (including the ACC tournament game), they are probably out.
 
shizzle787 said:
ACC
Locks: UNC, Duke
Should be in: Clemson (1 win to go), Virginia (1 win to go)
Work left to do: Wake Forest, Pitt

Big 12
Locks: Houston, Iowa State, Baylor, BYU, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should be in: TCU (1 win to go), Oklahoma (1 win to go)
Work left to do: Texas, Kansas State

Big East
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Should be in: None
Work left to do: Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, Villanova

Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Should be in: None
Work left to do: Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State

Mountain West
Lock: Utah State, Nevada
Should be in: SDSU (1 win to go), Boise State (1 win to go)
Work left to do: Colorado State, New Mexico

Pac-12
Locks: Arizona, Washington State
Should be in: None
Work left to do: Oregon, Colorado, Utah

SEC
Locks: Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida
Should be in: None
Work left to do: Mississippi State, Ole Miss

WCC
Locks: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Should be in: None
Work left to do: None

Others
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work left to do: Dayton, FAU, USF, Memphis, Indiana State
Expand ...
Some teams I wouldn’t discount
AAC
UCF at 22-5 , 15-1
FAU at 22-7 12-4
are not your bubble but Memphis
21-8 19-6 is.
A10
Richmond even if they don’t win their tournament
22-7 , 14-2
Ivy
Princeton
23-3
11-2
Yale
20-8 11-2
Cornell
21-6. 10-3
MAC
Akron
21-8 , 13-3
Sunbelt
JMU
28-3 , 15-3
APP State
26-5. 16-3
Anyone really want to play either team
These are some omitted teams that are pretty scary excluded them from even consideration is a travesty
We’re not football with their phony rigged playoff system.
The myth that .500 teams in major conferences are better than top teams in alleged lesser conferences is just that a myth.
The assumption that they’re one bid conference s is just an assumption these teams have to be considered whether they get the autobid or not or the Tournament loses credibility.
 
shizzle787 said:
Big East
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Should be in: None
Work left to do: Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, Villanova
Expand ...
I'm trying to understand your criteria for the different categories. On Friday you had:
Big East
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Should be in: Providence (2 wins to go), Seton Hall (2 wins to go)
Work left to do: St. John's, Villanova, Butler

Today you switched Seton Hall into "Work left to do" when they haven't played between Friday and today (yet) and I'm assuming you had their game today as a loss anyway.

Switching PC over to "Work left to do" makes sense since PC lost to Villanova yesterday. Was PC favored?
 
HooperScooper said:
I'm trying to understand your criteria for the different categories. On Friday you had:
Big East
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Should be in: Providence (2 wins to go), Seton Hall (2 wins to go)
Work left to do: St. John's, Villanova, Butler

Today you switched Seton Hall into "Work left to do" when they haven't played between Friday and today (yet) and I'm assuming you had their game today as a loss anyway.

Switching PC over to "Work left to do" makes sense since PC lost to Villanova yesterday. Was PC favored?
Expand ...
PC was at home (I didn't look to see if they were favored but my bet would be they were).

With only 2 regular season games left, teams need to be one win from a lock to be in the should be in category.
 
shizzle787 said:
PC was at home (I didn't look to see if they were favored but my bet would be they were).

With only 2 regular season games left, teams need to be one win from a lock to be in the should be in category.
Expand ...
Thanks. You didn't answer my question about switching Seton Hall.
 
Clemson laying an egg against Notre Dame has to hurt their chances of an at-large
 
navery12 said:
Doesn't the second sentence answer it? Seton Hall needs 2 wins so fall in the work to do category
Expand ...
I wasn't asking you since you didn't post this bubble watch. But you didn't read my first post. I'll post it for you here.

Today you switched Seton Hall into "Work left to do" when they haven't played between Friday and today (yet) and I'm assuming you had their game today as a loss anyway.
 
phillionaire said:
Clemson laying an egg against Notre Dame has to hurt their chances of an at-large
Expand ...
ND has been playing well last 3 weeks. 5-1 with only loss by 3 at Cuse. They keep playing like this they could screw a better seed in their tourney.
 
HooperScooper said:
I wasn't asking you since you didn't post this bubble watch. But you didn't read my first post. I'll post it for you here.

Today you switched Seton Hall into "Work left to do" when they haven't played between Friday and today (yet) and I'm assuming you had their game today as a loss anyway.
Expand ...
Not sure why you're being an ass for trying to help, but guess it'll be the last time I do that for you. Because his post answers your question
 
navery12 said:
Not sure why you're being an ass for trying to help, but guess it'll be the last time I do that for you. Because his post answers your question
Expand ...
I wasn't being an ass. But again, you didn't answer my question. He had Seton Hall in "Should be in" on Friday but switched them to "Work left to do" this morning. I was wondering why the switch. Maybe he made a mistake on Friday? I was trying to understand the criteria. The PC example was a good one to point out his criteria.
 
HooperScooper said:
I wasn't being an ass. But again, you didn't answer my question.

Today you switched Seton Hall into "Work left to do" when they haven't played between Friday and today (yet) and I'm assuming you had their game today as a loss anyway.
Expand ...
I adjusted should be in to only teams that need one win to get in. I actually think Seton Hall will get in with two wins but I'm not sold they are going to beat Nova after their performance yesterday.
 

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