Bubble Watch (2/1/24)

[shizzle787]

Criteria:
Locks: mathematically qualified for the NCAA tournament (can lose every game the rest of the way and still get in)
Should be in: teams that are looking good but not yet locks
Work left to do: bubble teams

ACC
Locks: None
Should be in: UNC, Duke
Work left to do: Virginia, NC State, Wake, Syracuse, Miami, VaTech, Clemson

Big 12
Lock: Houston
Should be in: Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma
Work left to do: BYU, Kansas State, Texas, Cincy

Big East
Lock: UConn
Should be in: Creighton, Marquette
Work left to do: Seton Hall, St. John's, Providence, Butler, Villanova

Big Ten
Lock: Purdue
Should be in: Wisconsin, Illinois
Work left to do: Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State

Mountain West
Locks: None
Should be in: Utah State
Work left to do: New Mexico, SDSU, Colorado State, Boise State, Nevada

Pac-12
Locks: None
Should be in: Arizona
Work left to do: Utah, Colorado, Washington State, Oregon

SEC
Locks: None
Should be in: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky
Work left to do: Florida, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, South Carolina

Others
Locks: None
Should be in: Dayton, FAU
Work left to do: St. Mary's, Gonzaga, San Francisco, Richmond, Indiana State, Grand Canyon, Princeton, James Madison, McNeese State, Memphis

At-large available (w/Houston + UConn in 1st in respective leagues): 35 (Purdue has clinched)
Should be in (non including teams in 1st in respective leagues): 15
Spots up for grabs: 20
Teams fighting for spots (non including teams in 1st in respective leagues): 39

 

[87Xfer]

you think only 3 teams are "locks" to get in at this point?

 

[shizzle787]

Number of wins needed to clinch for Big East teams:
18- Villanova
19- St. John's, Butler, Seton Hall
20- Providence

 

[shizzle787]

you think only 3 teams are "locks" to get in at this point?

Mathematically-yes. That is my definition of a lock. If Kansas lost out, they would miss the tournament at 17-15.

 

[Palatine]

Mathematically-yes. That is my definition of a lock. If Kansas lost out, they would miss the tournament at 17-15.

With that definition, every team in the NCAA is on bubble watch including the locks.

 

[shizzle787]

With that definition, every team in the NCAA is on bubble watch including the locks.

UConn, Houston, and Purdue can all lose out and get in.

 

[uconn_jack]

Granted, there is no real definition of a "lock", but at this point in the season, you can't say anyone is a lock using that criteria. If UConn fell to utter pieces and didn't win another game the reast of the season, I'm not so sure they would get in. Depends on circumstances I guess, level of competition, injuries, etc.

Right now, I think of it more like if a team were to finish out medicore around .500 on their remaining games, would they be in?

 

[shizzle787]

Granted, there is no real definition of a "lock", but at this point in the season, you can't say anyone is a lock using that criteria. If UConn fell to utter pieces and didn't win another game the reast of the season, I'm not so sure they would get in. Depends on circumstances I guess, level of competition, injuries, etc.

Right now, I think of it more like if a team were to finish out medicore around .500 on their remaining games, would they be in?

19 wins gets us in. 18-20 is the number for a BE team, and our OOC schedule was okay. Therefore, 19 wins gets the job done.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Ehh, using "lock" as "can lose every game and still get there," there are like 3 locks in the country.

I would use it as, like >99% chance to get in (i.e. missing would require going like 3-9, virtually impossible).

 

[UCLJ0211]

We had this exact same discussion last year

 

[Jbirdp5]

Guys we had this same argument last year…whether you agree with his term of lock or not this is the way he does it on his post.Lose out and still get in is his criteria.
If you’d like you can just figure the should be in teams as near “locks”
This is a carbon copy of the complaints from last year

 

[auror]

My suggestion is to change the word "Lock" to "Shoe-In" or "Safe barring meltdown" or something and then make the definition "could lose every tossup game remaining and get in". This allows for easy wins to be assumed to be wins and make the top category term more useful. Because yeah, if a team would lose every game remaining, most won't get in. But that extreme outlier scenario isn't going to happen, so why make it a whole category?

 

[HitDog]

Guys we had this same argument last year…whether you agree with his term of lock or not this is the way he does it on his post.Lose out and still get in is his criteria.
If you’d like you can just figure the should be in teams as near “locks”
This is a carbon copy of the complaints from last year

and next year

 

[PNolanFan]

there should be a little work left to do and then alot of work left to do. Look at the ACC, I think Clemson is probably gonna be in but those other teams need fairly extreme turnarounds to get in.... The UVA thing is gonna be interesting, they should get to like 22 wins, but at this point there best win is either nc state or florida which arent exactly what you think of when talking about tournament teams

 

[Tyler2Rings]

The latest bracket projection by The Athletic (paywall) has 8 Big East teams in the field. Butler and Villanova are projected as "last four in." I know it means nothing but its cool to see so many Big East teams in the conversation

 

[OkaForPrez]

Thank you @shizzle787 for creating boneyard content

 

[Kolumbo]

My suggestion is to change the word "Lock" to "Shoe-In" or "Safe barring meltdown" or something and then make the definition "could lose every tossup game remaining and get in". This allows for easy wins to be assumed to be wins and make the top category term more useful. Because yeah, if a team would lose every game remaining, most won't get in. But that extreme outlier scenario isn't going to happen, so why make it a whole category?

That's the 2nd category, "Should be in." A lock is a lock, 100%

 

[auror]

That's the 2nd category, "Should be in." A lock is a lock, 100%

There's a difference in my head. Should be in is "should be in if they continue to perform as they have". Shoe-in is "even if they play worse they're still in unless they just completely come apart."

 

[Hi-Low]

Just avoid the term "lock" until mid-Feb and stick with "likely in".....by then many of "likely in" will be "locks"

 

[Palatine]

Criteria:
Locks: mathematically qualified for the NCAA tournament (can lose every game the rest of the way and still get in)
Should be in: teams that are looking good but not yet locks
Work left to do: bubble teams

ACC
Locks: None
Should be in: UNC, Duke
Work left to do: Virginia, NC State, Wake, Syracuse, Miami, VaTech, Clemson

Big 12
Lock: Houston
Should be in: Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma
Work left to do: BYU, Kansas State, Texas, Cincy

Big East
Lock: UConn
Should be in: Creighton, Marquette
Work left to do: Seton Hall, St. John's, Providence, Butler, Villanova

Big Ten
Lock: Purdue
Should be in: Wisconsin, Illinois
Work left to do: Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State

Mountain West
Locks: None
Should be in: Utah State
Work left to do: New Mexico, SDSU, Colorado State, Boise State, Nevada

Pac-12
Locks: None
Should be in: Arizona
Work left to do: Utah, Colorado, Washington State, Oregon

SEC
Locks: None
Should be in: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky
Work left to do: Florida, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, South Carolina

Others
Locks: None
Should be in: Dayton, FAU
Work left to do: St. Mary's, Gonzaga, San Francisco, Richmond, Indiana State, Grand Canyon, Princeton, James Madison, McNeese State, Memphis

At-large available (w/Houston + UConn in 1st in respective leagues): 35 (Purdue has clinched)
Should be in (non including teams in 1st in respective leagues): 15
Spots up for grabs: 20
Teams fighting for spots (non including teams in 1st in respective leagues): 39

So if we lose our last ten games (mathematically possible) and are 9-11 in the BE conference, we're a lock?

 

[navery12]

So if we lose our last ten games (mathematically possible) and are 9-11 in the BE conference, we're a lock?

Yes

 

[storrsroars]

How has Purdue clinched? They still have 2 games vs Wisconsin with only a half game lead.

 

[navery12]

How has Purdue clinched? They still have 2 games vs Wisconsin with only a half game lead.

It has nothing to do with autobids, Purdue has 19 wins so would get in even if they lose out

 

[storrsroars]

It has nothing to do with autobids, Purdue has 19 wins so would get in even if they lose out

The way shiz wrote it, looked to me like he was including Hou & UConn as autobids then implied Purdue clinched an autobid, thus my confusion.

 

[Hurleyman216]

This methodology is dumb at best. We had this argument last year when this idiot had Houston on the bubble until the beginning of March. If you're going to project teams in the tournament then do it based on performance to date. No cares about who is in if a team loses all the rest of their games which for any decent team is a probability of like 0.00000000000000000001%. Using the Shiz methodology, you might as well just wait for the brackets to come out.