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Message: [QUOTE="Plebe, post: 3474346, member: 6927"] Updating the "bubble math" report: The following 31 teams are [U]absolute locks[/U] (regardless of any potential loss in conference tournament, for those still in action, marked by *): [LIST] [*][B]Pac-12:[/B] Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon St, Arizona St [*][B]Big Ten:[/B] Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio St, Michigan [*][B]SEC:[/B] South Carolina, Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas [*][B]ACC:[/B] Louisville, NC State, Florida St, Duke [*][B]Big 12:[/B] Baylor*, TCU*, Iowa State* [*][B]Others:[/B] UConn, Gonzaga, DePaul, Missouri St*, Princeton, South Dakota, Drake* [/LIST] The following 7 teams are [U]highly probable[/U] NCAA tournament teams. Call them "bubble adjacent." [LIST] [*][B]Big Ten:[/B] Purdue, Rutgers [*][B]Big 12:[/B] Texas [*][B]SEC:[/B] LSU [*][B]ACC:[/B] Virginia Tech [*][B]Others:[/B] Marquette, FGCU* [/LIST] Barring any "bid steals" in the remaining conference tournaments, these 38 teams will include [S]12[/S] automatic qualifiers and [S]26[/S] at-large teams. That would leave [S]6 remaining at-large bids available[/S]. [B]Edit (3/9):[/B] Gonzaga lost in the WCC semifinals, and so now they drop to the at-large pool. That means the above 38 teams include [U]11 auto bids[/U] and [U]27 at-large[/U] teams, with [U]5 remaining at-large bids[/U] for bubble teams. And now ... [B]THE BUBBLE. [/B]And it's a gnarly mess this year. The following is a "long list" of all teams with a remote possibility of consideration as an at-large team. The following 11 bubble teams have already lost in their conference tournament: [LIST] [*][B]SEC:[/B] Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama [*][B]ACC:[/B] Boston College, Georgia Tech [*][B]Big East:[/B] Creighton, St. John's, Seton Hall [*][B]AAC:[/B] UCF, Cincinnati [*][B]MAC:[/B] Central Michigan [/LIST] The following 13 bubble teams are still in contention for a conference tournament title and automatic bid: [LIST] [*][B]Big 12:[/B] West Virginia, Oklahoma St, Kansas St [*][B]Missouri Valley:[/B] Bradley, Northern Iowa, Illinois St [*][B]Conference USA:[/B] Old Dominion, Western Kentucky, MTSU, Rice, Charlotte [*][B]Colonial:[/B] James Madison, Drexel [/LIST] Of these 24 teams, I believe the 12 most likely to receive an at-large bid are: Tennessee Creighton James Madison* Boston College Old Dominion* Western Kentucky* Bradley* Northern Iowa* MTSU* Rice* West Virginia* Georgia [B]Notes:[/B] [LIST] [*]The eight teams marked with * still have to play their conference tournaments. Their position on the bubble may improve or diminish accordingly. As many as four of them may earn an automatic bid. [*]Barring any further "bid steals," 5 at-large teams will emerge from this list. Each bid steal will reduce this number by one. [*]Edit (3/11): Central Michigan appeared to be relatively safe as recently as two week ago, buoyed by an extremely high RPI (in the 16-18 range). But the ended the season losing 3 out their last 4 games, including two losses to sub-.500 Toledo. [/LIST] [/QUOTE]

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