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Seton Hall, West Virginia, UConn, Cincy and South Florida all have work to do if they want to get in. Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Marquette, and Georgetown are locks. Pitt, DePaul, Providence, St. Johns, Rutgers, and Villanova are all out barring an impropable run to the Big East title.
IMO, the Big East will get eight teams in, which means two of Seton Hall, WVU, UConn, UC, and USF.
Let's look at the resumes of these teams, and what they need to do to get in.
Cincy: The resume: They've got a very ugly OOC resume, with losses to Presbyterian and Marshall, coupled with no good wins. In the Big East their only bad loss is to St. Johns at home. What I think gets them in, as of right now, is the good wins they have in conference, especially on the road. They won @Pitt, @Georgetown, and @UConn. They beat Notre Dame and Louisville at home, giving them a 10-6 conference record with four quality wins.
What they need to do to get in: Beating Marquette at home would likely get them in, regardless of what they do in the remaining games. If they lose to Marquette, they have to beat Villanova on the road and win one BET game. If they lose both, they probably have to get to the BET semis at least.
South Florida: The resume: Zero good OOC wins, including bad losses to ODU, PSU, and Auburn. They lost to VCU by 23, KU by 30, and USM by two. This is a fairly horrendous OOC resume, so when you couple that with the fact that they have few quality BE wins, it makes it tough to give them a ticket to the dance. Their only decent wins were beating Seton Hall at home, Pitt on the road, and Cincy at home. When they have faced tough tests, they have mostly failed. While they did pass the eye test @ Syracuse this past week, they also lost at home to UConn, @ND by 11, @MU by 20, and at Gtown by 30. Not very pretty.
What they need to do to get in: Winning @Louisville would probably get them in, even if they lose their next two. However, if they lose to Louisville, they need to beat WVU, and make the quarters of the BET. Losing to both of these teams would mean they would have to make the semis of the BET, simply because of their lack of quality wins.
WVU: WVU is most certainly on the outside looking in as of right now, but they find themselves in a similar position to UConn, at 7-9 in conference, but a solid RPI and SOS to back them up. Their only bad OOC loss was to Kent State, and they managed to beat KSU in Kansas City, while playing Baylor down to the wire in Vegas. Other relevant games include a win vs. Miami and a loss at Miss State. Based on their OOC resume, I would say they are in. However, in conference they have few quality wins to back them up other than a nice win at home against Gtown, and they have lost games @SJU, vs. Pitt, and @SHU. While they played the top teams tough, they ultimately have nothing to show for it.
What they need to do: They absolutely have to win their next two games, and then after that, they have to at least make the BET quarterfinals, if not the semis. Anything less than 21-13 and 9-9 in conference and they are out IMO. Of the teams fighting for a ticket, they are probably last, especially because of losses to bubble mates UConn and SHU.
SHU: SHU has a solid OOC resume, with no bad losses and a 15 point win against VCU. They also won @Dayton. They did what they needed to do in the OOC schedule, but the BE schedule is where they'll earn their ticket. They split a pair of games with UConn, beat WVU, and recently beat Georgetown. The committee will take into account the fact that Herb Pope was out for much of their six game losing streak, but at 8-9 in a down conference, they still have work to do, considering they have questionable losses @USF, @Nova, and vs. Rutgers
What they need to do: SHU needs to win their final game @DePaul, otherwise they are most certainly out barring a run to the BET semis or title game. If they take care of buisness against DePaul, they likely have to make the quarters of the BET. The Rutgers loss has them out for now.
UConn: While UConn played a weak OOC schedule compared to most years, it will look good to the committee, as reflected by the high RPI and SOS. The strength of their "cupcakes" was stronger than most teams, which will help them greatly. Their marquee OOC wins include a defeat of a very good FSU team on a neutral floor, and a victory over a good Harvard team at home. They beat an underwhelming Arkansas team, and lost to fellow bubble team UCF on a neutral floor. They lost by three @Tennessee, but in retrospect, that loss wasn't nearly as bad as it seemed, considering they are 8-6 in the SEC and have been a tough out at home all year long. In conference, they are a mediocre 7-9, with the only questionable loss coming @Rutgers, who have been pesks at home all year. They defeated fellow bubble team WVU at home, handed ND and USF their lone home losses, and beat SHU handily at home.
What they have to do: Beating Pitt and Providence to close the season, coupled with a run to the BET quarters should be enough to get them in, assuming the committee doesn't *k us over. If UConn were to lose one of their remaining two, they would likely have to make the semis of the Big East tournament at the very least. If UConn wins their remaining two games and loses to a WVU/SHU type team in the second round, it's going to be a very close call.
Right now it look as if SHU, WVU, and UConn are fighting for the final bye. Considering SHU and UConn have similar resumes, it could very well come down to a second round BET game between those two teams.
IMO, the Big East will get eight teams in, which means two of Seton Hall, WVU, UConn, UC, and USF.
Let's look at the resumes of these teams, and what they need to do to get in.
Cincy: The resume: They've got a very ugly OOC resume, with losses to Presbyterian and Marshall, coupled with no good wins. In the Big East their only bad loss is to St. Johns at home. What I think gets them in, as of right now, is the good wins they have in conference, especially on the road. They won @Pitt, @Georgetown, and @UConn. They beat Notre Dame and Louisville at home, giving them a 10-6 conference record with four quality wins.
What they need to do to get in: Beating Marquette at home would likely get them in, regardless of what they do in the remaining games. If they lose to Marquette, they have to beat Villanova on the road and win one BET game. If they lose both, they probably have to get to the BET semis at least.
South Florida: The resume: Zero good OOC wins, including bad losses to ODU, PSU, and Auburn. They lost to VCU by 23, KU by 30, and USM by two. This is a fairly horrendous OOC resume, so when you couple that with the fact that they have few quality BE wins, it makes it tough to give them a ticket to the dance. Their only decent wins were beating Seton Hall at home, Pitt on the road, and Cincy at home. When they have faced tough tests, they have mostly failed. While they did pass the eye test @ Syracuse this past week, they also lost at home to UConn, @ND by 11, @MU by 20, and at Gtown by 30. Not very pretty.
What they need to do to get in: Winning @Louisville would probably get them in, even if they lose their next two. However, if they lose to Louisville, they need to beat WVU, and make the quarters of the BET. Losing to both of these teams would mean they would have to make the semis of the BET, simply because of their lack of quality wins.
WVU: WVU is most certainly on the outside looking in as of right now, but they find themselves in a similar position to UConn, at 7-9 in conference, but a solid RPI and SOS to back them up. Their only bad OOC loss was to Kent State, and they managed to beat KSU in Kansas City, while playing Baylor down to the wire in Vegas. Other relevant games include a win vs. Miami and a loss at Miss State. Based on their OOC resume, I would say they are in. However, in conference they have few quality wins to back them up other than a nice win at home against Gtown, and they have lost games @SJU, vs. Pitt, and @SHU. While they played the top teams tough, they ultimately have nothing to show for it.
What they need to do: They absolutely have to win their next two games, and then after that, they have to at least make the BET quarterfinals, if not the semis. Anything less than 21-13 and 9-9 in conference and they are out IMO. Of the teams fighting for a ticket, they are probably last, especially because of losses to bubble mates UConn and SHU.
SHU: SHU has a solid OOC resume, with no bad losses and a 15 point win against VCU. They also won @Dayton. They did what they needed to do in the OOC schedule, but the BE schedule is where they'll earn their ticket. They split a pair of games with UConn, beat WVU, and recently beat Georgetown. The committee will take into account the fact that Herb Pope was out for much of their six game losing streak, but at 8-9 in a down conference, they still have work to do, considering they have questionable losses @USF, @Nova, and vs. Rutgers
What they need to do: SHU needs to win their final game @DePaul, otherwise they are most certainly out barring a run to the BET semis or title game. If they take care of buisness against DePaul, they likely have to make the quarters of the BET. The Rutgers loss has them out for now.
UConn: While UConn played a weak OOC schedule compared to most years, it will look good to the committee, as reflected by the high RPI and SOS. The strength of their "cupcakes" was stronger than most teams, which will help them greatly. Their marquee OOC wins include a defeat of a very good FSU team on a neutral floor, and a victory over a good Harvard team at home. They beat an underwhelming Arkansas team, and lost to fellow bubble team UCF on a neutral floor. They lost by three @Tennessee, but in retrospect, that loss wasn't nearly as bad as it seemed, considering they are 8-6 in the SEC and have been a tough out at home all year long. In conference, they are a mediocre 7-9, with the only questionable loss coming @Rutgers, who have been pesks at home all year. They defeated fellow bubble team WVU at home, handed ND and USF their lone home losses, and beat SHU handily at home.
What they have to do: Beating Pitt and Providence to close the season, coupled with a run to the BET quarters should be enough to get them in, assuming the committee doesn't *k us over. If UConn were to lose one of their remaining two, they would likely have to make the semis of the Big East tournament at the very least. If UConn wins their remaining two games and loses to a WVU/SHU type team in the second round, it's going to be a very close call.
Right now it look as if SHU, WVU, and UConn are fighting for the final bye. Considering SHU and UConn have similar resumes, it could very well come down to a second round BET game between those two teams.
