I would put Baylor, UConn, ND in the top tier. I would Baylor and UConn tied at the top with ND just a shade behind. But its close enough that could all be my #1, #2 or #3 by March. Stanford and TN would be in the next tier. I know everyone will object to putting TN that high, but I think that if they are healthy, that's where they belong. Stanford has had a much, much easier schedule than TN and has struggled against the likes of Oregon State (!!!) and USC. If Stanford had TN's injuries and schedule they may well have had four losses tpp. Same goes for the Duke's of the world, only more so. I would put Duke at the top of the third tier, followed by KY and MD, with Delaware, Miami and Rutgers knocking at the door.
It's very hard for me to imagine anyone other than Baylor, UConn, ND, Stanford and TN winning it all. And TN only if they get healthy and Simmons finds her groove.