bracketology thoughts

[Vowelguy]

The #1 seeds are locked in - UConn, ND, Bay, SC. (After all the tumult and surprises of the season, isn't that the top 4 that many had at the start of the year?)

More flux at #2, where most teams have been losing. Ore St & Miss St are likely sure things, though MSU has slipped down the stretch a bit and will need a good SECT run to avoid falling further.

I still think the top 14 is pretty solid - 4 acc, 4 pac, 2 sec, 2 big 12, MD, UConn. Ohio St is likely in. Last spot up for grabs.

CT - UConn, Wash .., FlaSt, Ohio St
KY - NDame, MD ...., Stan , <Okla/Dep/?>
OK - Bayl , Miss St, Duke , UCLA
CA - SCar , Ore St , Texas, Lou

[The 16th team ends up in KY since Ohio St cant be placed there bc MD is there.]

 

[oldude]

The #1 seeds are locked in - UConn, ND, Bay, SC. (After all the tumult and surprises of the season, isn't that the top 4 that many had at the start of the year?)

More flux at #2, where most teams have been losing. Ore St & Miss St are likely sure things, though MSU has slipped down the stretch a bit and will need a good SECT run to avoid falling further.

I still think the top 14 is pretty solid - 4 acc, 4 pac, 2 sec, 2 big 12, MD, UConn. Ohio St is likely in. Last spot up for grabs.

CT - UConn, Wash .., FlaSt, Ohio St
KY - NDame, MD ...., Stan , <Okla/Dep/?>
OK - Bayl , Miss St, Duke , UCLA
CA - SCar , Ore St , Texas, Lou

[The 16th team ends up in KY since Ohio St cant be placed there bc MD is there.]

I admire your confidence to dive into this discussion, and generally, but timidly, agree with your assessment, but with a handful of regular season matchups left and conference tournaments just around the corner, the only thing I would put money on is that UConn will be the #1 overall seed. The other top seeds all have multiple losses, and while they appear to be on track to win their respective conference tournaments, there are a bunch of teams out their capable of knocking them off. It should be fun to watch.

 

[Kibitzer]

The #1 seeds are locked in - UConn, ND, Bay, SC. (After all the tumult and surprises of the season, isn't that the top 4 that many had at the start of the year?)

More flux at #2, where most teams have been losing. Ore St & Miss St are likely sure things, though MSU has slipped down the stretch a bit and will need a good SECT run to avoid falling further.

I still think the top 14 is pretty solid - 4 acc, 4 pac, 2 sec, 2 big 12, MD, UConn. Ohio St is likely in. Last spot up for grabs.

CT - UConn, Wash .., FlaSt, Ohio St
KY - NDame, MD ...., Stan , <Okla/Dep/?>
OK - Bayl , Miss St, Duke , UCLA
CA - SCar , Ore St , Texas, Lou

[The 16th team ends up in KY since Ohio St cant be placed there bc MD is there.]

Do I read this correctly? That Kelsey Plum may be introduced to Kia Nurse in Bridgeport?

 

[Vowelguy]

I admire your confidence to dive into this discussion, and generally, but timidly, agree with your assessment, but with a handful of regular season matchups left and conference tournaments just around the corner, the only thing I would put money on is that UConn will be the #1 overall seed. The other top seeds all have multiple losses, and while they appear to be on track to win their respective conference tournaments, there are a bunch of teams out their capable of knocking them off. It should be fun to watch.

The committee has always said that the regular season matters a lot. Those 4 teams have separated themselves. Nothing in their conference tournaments can knock them off #1s IMO.

 

[DefenseBB]

The committee has always said that the regular season matters a lot. Those 4 teams have separated themselves. Nothing in their conference tournaments can knock them off #1s IMO.

Let me ask this question on the 2/3/4 seedings within a region (non-#1's). Why would the committee assign teams to a region that have already Played a #1, either in or out of conference? Given the conference restriction which override OOC matchups, why not move FSU and tOSU out and Duke/Stanford and UCLA/Louisville in? Travel for those seeds is ambivalent due to their lower seeding.

 

[oldude]

The committee has always said that the regular season matters a lot. Those 4 teams have separated themselves. Nothing in their conference tournaments can knock them off #1s IMO.

You're probably right, but what I had in mind is if a team like TN or Mizzou takes down SC (Coates is injured again) early in the SEC tournament. That gives the Gamecocks 4 losses, and I'm not sure if they get the nod over a Pac12 team like OSU or Stanford if they sweep through their conference championship. Same scenario might be true with ND, although the Irish are playing really well right now.

 

[LO TRADER]

You're probably right, but what I had in mind is if a team like TN or Mizzou takes down SC (Coates is injured again) early in the SEC tournament. That gives the Gamecocks 4 losses, and I'm not sure if they get the nod over a Pac12 team like OSU or Stanford if they sweep through their conference championship. Same scenario might be true with ND, although the Irish are playing really well right now.

I agree with this assessment. If SC loses early in the SEC Tournament, and either Stanford/OSU/UW win the PAC12 tournament, one of these teams could possibly be bumped to a #1 seed. I think the NCAA Tournament relies heavily on the RPI and the PAC12 is well represented in the RPI at the moment. But for sure, only UCONN is 100% a #1 seed, and lots of reshuffling can still occur.

 

[LO TRADER]

How does Charlie Creme justify Texas as a #2 seed (in ND's bracket)? Texas has 7 losses. That's crazy talk.

 

[Vowelguy]

How does Charlie Creme justify Texas as a #2 seed (in ND's bracket)? Texas has 7 losses. That's crazy talk.

# of losses is the one of the least informative metrics out there

 

[oldude]

How does Charlie Creme justify Texas as a #2 seed (in ND's bracket)? Texas has 7 losses. That's crazy talk.

5/7 losses were to top 10 teams in relatively close games. 1/7 to ranked Oklahoma at Oklahoma. The only "bad" loss was last week to Iowa St on the road, a team which looks like it will make it into the NCAA tournament.

 

[Vowelguy]

Let me ask this question on the 2/3/4 seedings within a region (non-#1's). Why would the committee assign teams to a region that have already Played a #1, either in or out of conference? Given the conference restriction which override OOC matchups, why not move FSU and tOSU out and Duke/Stanford and UCLA/Louisville in? Travel for those seeds is ambivalent due to their lower seeding.

• If Wash is the #2, then Stanford & UCLA cannot be in that top 4.
• Louisville and UCLA are the stronger 4 seeds. The #1 overall seed should get the lowest #4 if possible.
• The committee already has a lot of procedures that make bracketing a challenge. To add another - avoid rematches - would make it even more difficult. And, to the point, there is no such rule currently.
• The committee's 1st goal is to create even, fair brackets. Thus the use of the S-curve to the extent possible.

 

[Vowelguy]

You're probably right, but what I had in mind is if a team like TN or Mizzou takes down SC (Coates is injured again) early in the SEC tournament.

SC could only face TN in the semis and MO in the finals. A semifinal SECT loss is not going to knock them out of a #1 seed.

 

[Intpseeker]

So is Washington considered the weakest 2 in this scenario?

 

[UcMiami]

The committee has always said that the regular season matters a lot. Those 4 teams have separated themselves. Nothing in their conference tournaments can knock them off #1s IMO.

I'll agree with oldude on this one - I think outside of UConn if any one of the other #1 seeds were to lose in their first conference tournament game it would certainly open the door. The committee definitely likes the regular season, but they also pay attention to 'the last month' trend for teams and a tournament loss is not a good look. Baylor is probably immune as even if they did lose they would still be the 4th #1, but ND and SC are only tentatively back into #1 seeds and adding a 'badish' loss would hurt them.

 

[chuck.r]

So is Washington considered the weakest 2 in this scenario?

Not sure which post you are responding to, but Wash. is currently a 3-seed in Creme's latest Bracketology. I believe Wash. is playing for a 2-seed should they win the PAC12 tourney. The same for Maryland in the B1G.

Of all the P-5 tournaments, the SEC and PAC12 are potentially the most eventful, as the 3rd and 4th place teams in those conferences have already shown the capacity to beat their 1st and 2nd place peers. A UCLA or, God help us, Tennessee upset champion, are distinct possibilities. Other wild-cards include Duke and Louisville in the ACC.

I think Baylor and to a lesser degree, Notre Dame, are safe 1-seeds regardless of the tournament results. ND is playing their tourney to secure the Lexington Bracket. The last 1-seed gets Stockton. Should someone other than MissSt or So Carolina win the SEC, and OreSt wins the PAC12, the Beavers just might grab the 1-seed in Stockton. Even as a 2-seed, I hope they remain in Stockton as Creme currently has them placed.

 

[Plebe]

The #1 seeds are locked in - UConn, ND, Bay, SC. (After all the tumult and surprises of the season, isn't that the top 4 that many had at the start of the year?)

That occurred to me as well last night. ND and Baylor started out the year as #1 and #2 ahead of UConn in the AP poll, and though ND was as low as #7 in the first reveal in late January, they now haven't lost since the mid-January game at Tennessee. Also, it's interesting that these would be the same top-4 seeds as last year.

I still think the top 14 is pretty solid - 4 acc, 4 pac, 2 sec, 2 big 12, MD, UConn. Ohio St is likely in. Last spot up for grabs.

CT - UConn, Wash .., FlaSt, Ohio St
KY - NDame, MD ...., Stan , <Okla/Dep/?>
OK - Bayl , Miss St, Duke , UCLA
CA - SCar , Ore St , Texas, Lou

Wouldn't Kentucky also be in? The committee had them at #15 last Monday, and that was before they beat Miss St, which is a better win than Ohio State's win over Maryland.

 

[chuck.r]

That occurred to me as well last night. ND and Baylor started out the year as #1 and #2 ahead of UConn in the AP poll, and though ND was as low as #7 in the first reveal in late January, they now haven't lost since the mid-January game at Tennessee. Also, it's interesting that these would be the same top-4 seeds as last year.



Wouldn't Kentucky also be in? The committee had them at #15 last Monday, and that was before they beat Miss St, which is a better win than Ohio State's win over Maryland.

Creme certainly thinks so. He has UCLA, Louisville, OhioSt, and Kentucky as his current 4-seeds.

 

[LO TRADER]

5/7 losses were to top 10 teams in relatively close games. 1/7 to ranked Oklahoma at Oklahoma. The only "bad" loss was last week to Iowa St on the road, a team which looks like it will make it into the NCAA tournament.

I just don't see it? Texas' conference is weak. Does the committee take into account the RPI at the time of the loss, and, the trend at end of season? UW & Stanford have had losses to TOP 15 teams (top 10 in some cases), and, UW is considered a 3 seed and Texas a 2 seed. I can't see how this makes sense.

 

[SCspur]

You're probably right, but what I had in mind is if a team like TN or Mizzou takes down SC (Coates is injured again) early in the SEC tournament. That gives the Gamecocks 4 losses, and I'm not sure if they get the nod over a Pac12 team like OSU or Stanford if they sweep through their conference championship. Same scenario might be true with ND, although the Irish are playing really well right now.

She's fine, she experienced some pain in the game but said she'll be fine. As to the tourney I think ND has a harder chance at winning due to tougher teams in the ACC. SC has a double bye and would likely face UK/Tenn, Tenn would have played 2 games by that point and probably be out of gas and we have UK's number, on the other side Mizz/AM will face off agaisnt Miss St. ND on the other hand will probably face off agaisnt NC St/Lou a State team that beat them and a Louisville team that fought strong in SB without Hines-Allen and then theirs also Duke, Fl St, and Cuse on the other side. I just think the ACC tourney is very tough this year and I'll be in attendance

 

[oldude]

I just don't see it? Texas' conference is weak. Does the committee take into account the RPI at the time of the loss, and, the trend at end of season? UW & Stanford have had losses to TOP 15 teams (top 10 in some cases), and, UW is considered a 3 seed and Texas a 2 seed. I can't see how this makes sense.

I don't disagree with you, I'm just trying to offer up my best guess of why 7 losses doesn't matter as much on the Longhorn's resume.

 

[hoophuskee]

The #1 seeds are locked in - UConn, ND, Bay, SC. (After all the tumult and surprises of the season, isn't that the top 4 that many had at the start of the year?)

More flux at #2, where most teams have been losing. Ore St & Miss St are likely sure things, though MSU has slipped down the stretch a bit and will need a good SECT run to avoid falling further.

I still think the top 14 is pretty solid - 4 acc, 4 pac, 2 sec, 2 big 12, MD, UConn. Ohio St is likely in. Last spot up for grabs.

CT - UConn, Wash .., FlaSt, Ohio St
KY - NDame, MD ...., Stan , <Okla/Dep/?>
OK - Bayl , Miss St, Duke , UCLA
CA - SCar , Ore St , Texas, Lou

[The 16th team ends up in KY since Ohio St cant be placed there bc MD is there.]

I don't know enough about Oreg State. But I would prefer to have Md or Miss State in our bracket. I know there is a lot of fear with Md. But they have two starting frosh I believe and one of them is the pg. I think over a run of possibly getting to the final four, the star pg from MD will crack. Though she could crack in S16 game and they pull it out.

I would also like to see of Plum and Osahor can knock off a big sized low-post team just for the fun of it. Like when a boxer fights against thumper. Alternate styles.

 

[Plebe]

I just don't see it? Texas' conference is weak. Does the committee take into account the RPI at the time of the loss, and, the trend at end of season? UW & Stanford have had losses to TOP 15 teams (top 10 in some cases), and, UW is considered a 3 seed and Texas a 2 seed. I can't see how this makes sense.

RPI at time of loss is not considered. Early-season RPI is an unreliable measure. Oregon State's RPI in week 4 was #188, and the following week was #85.

 

[Orangutan]

I'll agree with oldude on this one - I think outside of UConn if any one of the other #1 seeds were to lose in their first conference tournament game it would certainly open the door. The committee definitely likes the regular season, but they also pay attention to 'the last month' trend for teams and a tournament loss is not a good look. Baylor is probably immune as even if they did lose they would still be the 4th #1, but ND and SC are only tentatively back into #1 seeds and adding a 'badish' loss would hurt them.

For what it's worth, Creme says ND is "pretty close to a lock" as a #1 but specifically mentions that Baylor could drop if they stumble. So he has it opposite of your perception with ND probably safe and Baylor potentially dropping with a bad loss. Not that Creme is necessarily right...just food for thought.

I think Baylor is better than ND but I'm guessing Creme's perception of ND being a near-lock is based on RPI and SOS, which would both work in ND's favor.

To me, it's a question of who can jump onto the 1 line. Oregon St. if they win the PAC-12. Maybe Mississippi State if they win the SEC ? Maybe Washington if they win the PAC-12? I really think those are the only 3. Maybe Maryland if they absolutely cream Ohio State in the Big Ten tourney, but I think that Ohio State game sealed the deal. RPI and SOS really work against them.

So if I'm right you've got only two that can jump up. Miss. State and OSU/Wash. And Miss. State would probably take SC's spot rather than affecting ND/Baylor. Even if ND loses in the ACC tourney, they probably win a comparison with Washington due to a better schedule and head-to-win over Washington by 11 points (at home, but home court isn't worth 11 points). So I think for ND to drop off, they would have to lose in the ACC tourney and Oregon State would have to win the PAC-12. Then it might be a head-to-head for the last spot. And ND could conceivably still win that comp depending of the circumstances of the hypothetical loss.

That's my ham-fisted analysis anyhow.

 

[UcMiami]

I just don't see it? Texas' conference is weak. Does the committee take into account the RPI at the time of the loss, and, the trend at end of season? UW & Stanford have had losses to TOP 15 teams (top 10 in some cases), and, UW is considered a 3 seed and Texas a 2 seed. I can't see how this makes sense.

Texas opened the season with a murders row of road games - at one point they were 2-4 with the losses to MissSt, UConn, SC (home) and Stanford. They then didn't lose again including wins over FlSt and Baylor, until this last week when the lost to Baylor, OK, and Iowa St. When you look at the Pac12 teams, very few of them had decent OOC schedules so all those wins they racked up aren't very meaningful and while the Pac12 is a strong conference, none of the conference wins are against top 5 teams and very few are against top 10 teams. The three game skid for TX also corresponds to Lang being injured in the first half of the Baylor game, she is back now, and the committee does take those kinds of issues into consideration.

 

[hussybulldog]

Not sure which post you are responding to, but Wash. is currently a 3-seed in Creme's latest Bracketology. I believe Wash. is playing for a 2-seed should they win the PAC12 tourney. The same for Maryland in the B1G.

Of all the P-5 tournaments, the SEC and PAC12 are potentially the most eventful, as the 3rd and 4th place teams in those conferences have already shown the capacity to beat their 1st and 2nd place peers. A UCLA or, God help us, Tennessee upset champion, are distinct possibilities. Other wild-cards include Duke and Louisville in the ACC.

I think Baylor and to a lesser degree, Notre Dame, are safe 1-seeds regardless of the tournament results. ND is playing their tourney to secure the Lexington Bracket. The last 1-seed gets Stockton. Should someone other than MissSt or So Carolina win the SEC, and OreSt wins the PAC12, the Beavers just might grab the 1-seed in Stockton. Even as a 2-seed, I hope they remain in Stockton as Creme currently has them placed.

there is really not too much differences when seeded No. 2 or 3. Big differences btwn no3 & 4