Bracketology - Dec 30

[BRS24]

Happy New Years Eve Eve y'all! My dad is back in MA, the house is quiet, and now I gotta lose a few lbs after all the festivities last week.

Charlie's latest update here. I'm still not buying the B10 and SEC counts though. No new T16 teams, however seven have changed regions (stayed the same seed #). And lordy, he's starting the 2x a week blast on Jan 6.

There was plenty of shake-up over the first two months of the season. Teams like Texas Tech and Alabama have been much better than anticipated and remain unbeaten. Duke and Tennessee haven't played to expectations. But the top five teams in Bracketology have stayed the same since the preseason -- and it doesn't look like that's changing soon. No. 1 overall seed UConn and No. 2 Texas don't look vulnerable. The Huskies are a heavy favorite to go undefeated in the regular season and only No. 3 overall South Carolina has pushed the Longhorns. Losses to either South Carolina or LSU in mid-January won't be enough to knock Texas off the top line. The Gamecocks and Tigers also have firm grasps on their current positions. And with six Quad 1 wins, UCLA has built up a cushion and can afford a loss or maybe two in the Big Ten and still remain, at worst, the top No. 2 seed in the bracket.​

Big Ten - 13
SEC - 11
Big 12 - 8
ACC - 6
Big East - 2
Summit - 2

 

[FanFromMaine]

Thanks, very helpful.

But, did i misread Charlie: Duke is not in his tournament projection?

 

[Huskee11]

Correct, no Duke. He has them as the number 4 team out. Still, he has the ACC with six bids. Two for the Big East, UConn and Villanova.

That would be a tough bracket for a number two seed, Texas. Louisville has been playing very well recently, with a two point loss to South Carolina, a win at UNC, and a thrashing of Tennessee on a neutral court. And, we all know about Michigan.

 

[YKCornelius]

BRS24, thanks for providing/updating your chart. It's helpful to see Charlie's projections laid out in this fashion.

 

[YKCornelius]

One of the things I noticed (and disagree) with Charlie's current projections is the assignment of location. Specifically, the assignment of #2 TCU - who Charlie projects as the Big 12 Automatic Qualifier - in the Sacramento Region.

I believe that TCU will be placed in the Ft Worth Region if they end up as one of the top 16 teams. Just like UCLA will end up in the Sacramento Region (where Charlie currently has them) regardless of their seed.

The implications of TCU winning the BIG 12 tournament and garnering a #2 seed (or a #1 seed if they finish undefeated) would be further shaped by the NCAA's intent/policy of separating top seeds from the same conference.

Hence, in placing the top eight seeds that Charlie currently projects, #2 TCU would end up facing #1 Texas in Ft Worth, and #2 Michigan would travel to Sacramento to face #1 South Carolina.

Of course, all of this assumes that UConn will be placed in Ft Worth. That assumption could be turned on its head if both Texas and TCU end up as #1 seeds, In that event, the Tournament Committee could very well place the Huskies in Sacramento.

 

[BRS24]

BRS24, thanks for providing/updating your chart. It's helpful to see Charlie's projections laid out in this fashion.

Thanks. Technically, in this week's grid, MD, ND, MI and others should be considered up-seeds based on region changes, however my brain would break doing that, so I keep it to the number changes.

 

[triaddukefan]

Thanks, very helpful.

But, did i misread Charlie: Duke is not in his tournament projection?

They are in my tournament protection as a #5 seed.

 

[Bone Dog]

They are in my tournament protection as a #5 seed.

Like Zeus you have nodded your brow and the heavens trembled. I am arranging small garden gnomes in my backyard in support.

 

[BRS24]

Hey BYers - I missed Megan's first B-ology on Nov 2, and she had UConn as overall #1 seed, It will be interesting to see how her bracket differs from Charlie's.

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball 2026 | Her Hoop Stats

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

 

[Phil]

Thanks, very helpful.

But, did i misread Charlie: Duke is not in his tournament projection?

I wrote to Charlie on the chance that it was simply an oversight and he explained that it wasn't an oversight. He pointed out something I already knew, but this isn't a projection of what will happen over the rest of the season but how the selection committee would apply their principles if the season was stopped on the day of the analysis. On that day Duke was 6 – 6 and he noted how rare it is for a 500 team to get selected. I disagree with his interpretation, but it is calm and he gets to make the rules. I predict that Duke will, they keep plan about the level of playing now, be selected as an eight or nine seed.

 

[Phil]

They are in my tournament protection as a #5 seed.

That wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Skeets]

I wrote to Charlie on the chance that it was simply an oversight and he explained that it wasn't an oversight. He pointed out something I already knew, but this isn't a projection of what will happen over the rest of the season but how the selection committee would apply their principles if the season was stopped on the day of the analysis. On that day Duke was 6 – 6 and he noted how rare it is for a 500 team to get selected. I disagree with his interpretation, but it is calm and he gets to make the rules. I predict that Duke will, they keep plan about the level of playing now, be selected as an eight or nine seed.

I don't understand it, 6-6 is good enough to get into a football bowl game, and that could be the problem with so many mediocre football bowl games. Isn't that the very definition of "mediocre"?

 

[Phil]

Charlie's argument appears to be that teams of 500 don't get selected as at-large teams. That's factually accurate but also factually accurate that we don't stop the season after 12 games. If we accept that the at-large teams are roughly the 45 best teams, it may be never the case that after playing 30 or so games, you can have a 500 and be in the top 45, but as your football example shows, after 12 games you can be at 500 been considered good enough for a bowl game so I think he's misunderstanding how one ought to treat the truncated season.

He gets to make the rules, but I would make them differently. I think Duke is one of the 25 best teams in the country and therefore ought to be about a six seed. I think the argument that teams of the 500 record really get invited misses the fact that teams of the 500 record at the end of the season rarely get invited. This artificial question is who should be invited at this point in the season and I think Duke should be so I think Charlie's argument is flawed.

 

[BRS24]

 

[MSGRET]

Duke is currently 3-0 in the ACC and is leading #18 Notre Dame 66-55 with 6 minutes left in the 4th Qtr. Duke has no one in foul trouble while ND has de Jesus with 4 and Hidalgo with 3. If they win today they will be at least tied for 1st in the ACC. Their only bad loss this season is a road game at South Florida. I'm just praying that ND stays in the Top 25 until they play UConn.

 

[triaddukefan]

Like Zeus you have nodded your brow and the heavens trembled. I am arranging small garden gnomes in my backyard in support.

Can you arrange a dinner plate (that can be shipped) in support?? 😉

Charlie's argument appears to be that teams of 500 don't get selected as at-large teams. That's factually accurate but also factually accurate that we don't stop the season after 12 games. If we accept that the at-large teams are roughly the 45 best teams, it may be never the case that after playing 30 or so games, you can have a 500 and be in the top 45, but as your football example shows, after 12 games you can be at 500 been considered good enough for a bowl game so I think he's misunderstanding how one ought to treat the truncated season.

He gets to make the rules, but I would make them differently. I think Duke is one of the 25 best teams in the country and therefore ought to be about a six seed. I think the argument that teams of the 500 record really get invited misses the fact that teams of the 500 record at the end of the season rarely get invited. This artificial question is who should be invited at this point in the season and I think Duke should be so I think Charlie's argument is flawed.

If Duke ends up on the 6 or 7 line... some #2 or #3 seed is gonna be upset with the placement. (probably) Definitely would be beneficial not to be on the 8 line.