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[QUOTE="EASTFLA, post: 3880125, member: 10791"]
Currently, ESPN has us as a #9 seed, which looks about right, and here is why.

Here are the Q1/Q2 combined records of all 7-9 projected seeds:

7        BYU      7-5
7       SDST    6-4
7      CLEM    10-6
7     ORE       9-3
_______________________
8     LSU        7-8
8     MZ        9-8
8    V TECH  5-5
8    L-CHI     5-4
_________________________
9    CT          6-6
9    NC         9-8
9    FLA        8-6
9    MD        6-11
_______________________
10  RUT        9-10
10  ST.B        6-3
10  UCLA      5-8
10  LOUIS     7-5
__________________________

This shows that all 7-10 projected seeds are .500 or better vs Q1/Q2 games. The exceptions are those schools that played a high percentage of their schedule that involved Q1/Q2 opponents:

MD    68%
RUT   79.2%
LSU   58.3%
UCLA I don't understand. They do not have a tournament resume to me, and I think they are not in. They have a NET rating of 41. No other school in this group is higher than 45. I think this is a mistake by ESPN. They have worse overall numbers than others in the group.

How do we compare to 7 and 8 projected seeds?

4 have a higher net rating and 4 don't
2 have more Q1 wins 3 the same and 3 fewer
5 have more Q2 wins 2 the same and 1 fewer

To make this more apple to apples because we have played fewer games than most teams:

Percentage of schedule played vs Q3/Q4 opponents:

BYU          43
SDST        56.5
CLEM       27.3
ORE         38.9
LSU          41.7
MZ           23.7
VTCH       50
_________________
CT            40

Team winning percentage:   Just 2 of the 7-8 projected seeds has a winning percentage less than ours  14-6   .700

When you put it all together you can see the overall difference is not that much. Here is a capsule of the teams with us or chasing us (9-11):

Net Ratings:

9     39
9     28
9     32
CT  31
_________

10  37
10  41
10  51
10  27
___________
11  38
11  72  (Michigan St)  Don't see them in at all
11  35
11  40
11  12  (they list 5 at the 11 seed. Colorado is grossly under-seeded (7-0 vs Q2, 3-4 vs Q1). Only 1 other team has 10 or more combined Q1/Q2 wins.
___________

Beating Georgetown was significant. It meant we can only add 1 more loss, while a loss meant a certain 2 losses added, and bubble trouble. I believe even with a loss in the opening round of the BET we are in. We won't drop from a projected 9 seed (better in other projected brackets) to out altogether unless there is a mess of upsets in 1 bid leagues that make them a 2 bid league. I also believe if we win it, we are a 5 seed, or at worst 6. That means we will be 17-6 and 13-2 with Bouknight.

Go Huskies!
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