Currently, ESPN has us as a #9 seed, which looks about right, and here is why.
Here are the Q1/Q2 combined records of all 7-9 projected seeds:
7 BYU 7-5
7 SDST 6-4
7 CLEM 10-6
7 ORE 9-3
_______________________
8 LSU 7-8
8 MZ 9-8
8 V TECH 5-5
8 L-CHI 5-4
_________________________
9 CT 6-6
9 NC 9-8
9 FLA 8-6
9 MD 6-11
_______________________
10 RUT 9-10
10 ST.B 6-3
10 UCLA 5-8
10 LOUIS 7-5
__________________________
This shows that all 7-10 projected seeds are .500 or better vs Q1/Q2 games. The exceptions are those schools that played a high percentage of their schedule that involved Q1/Q2 opponents:
MD 68%
RUT 79.2%
LSU 58.3%
UCLA I don't understand. They do not have a tournament resume to me, and I think they are not in. They have a NET rating of 41. No other school in this group is higher than 45. I think this is a mistake by ESPN. They have worse overall numbers than others in the group.
How do we compare to 7 and 8 projected seeds?
4 have a higher net rating and 4 don't
2 have more Q1 wins 3 the same and 3 fewer
5 have more Q2 wins 2 the same and 1 fewer
To make this more apple to apples because we have played fewer games than most teams:
Percentage of schedule played vs Q3/Q4 opponents:
BYU 43
SDST 56.5
CLEM 27.3
ORE 38.9
LSU 41.7
MZ 23.7
VTCH 50
_________________
CT 40
Team winning percentage: Just 2 of the 7-8 projected seeds has a winning percentage less than ours 14-6 .700
When you put it all together you can see the overall difference is not that much. Here is a capsule of the teams with us or chasing us (9-11):
Net Ratings:
9 39
9 28
9 32
CT 31
_________
10 37
10 41
10 51
10 27
___________
11 38
11 72 (Michigan St) Don't see them in at all
11 35
11 40
11 12 (they list 5 at the 11 seed. Colorado is grossly under-seeded (7-0 vs Q2, 3-4 vs Q1). Only 1 other team has 10 or more combined Q1/Q2 wins.
___________
Beating Georgetown was significant. It meant we can only add 1 more loss, while a loss meant a certain 2 losses added, and bubble trouble. I believe even with a loss in the opening round of the BET we are in. We won't drop from a projected 9 seed (better in other projected brackets) to out altogether unless there is a mess of upsets in 1 bid leagues that make them a 2 bid league. I also believe if we win it, we are a 5 seed, or at worst 6. That means we will be 17-6 and 13-2 with Bouknight.
Go Huskies!
Here are the Q1/Q2 combined records of all 7-9 projected seeds:
7 BYU 7-5
7 SDST 6-4
7 CLEM 10-6
7 ORE 9-3
_______________________
8 LSU 7-8
8 MZ 9-8
8 V TECH 5-5
8 L-CHI 5-4
_________________________
9 CT 6-6
9 NC 9-8
9 FLA 8-6
9 MD 6-11
_______________________
10 RUT 9-10
10 ST.B 6-3
10 UCLA 5-8
10 LOUIS 7-5
__________________________
This shows that all 7-10 projected seeds are .500 or better vs Q1/Q2 games. The exceptions are those schools that played a high percentage of their schedule that involved Q1/Q2 opponents:
MD 68%
RUT 79.2%
LSU 58.3%
UCLA I don't understand. They do not have a tournament resume to me, and I think they are not in. They have a NET rating of 41. No other school in this group is higher than 45. I think this is a mistake by ESPN. They have worse overall numbers than others in the group.
How do we compare to 7 and 8 projected seeds?
4 have a higher net rating and 4 don't
2 have more Q1 wins 3 the same and 3 fewer
5 have more Q2 wins 2 the same and 1 fewer
To make this more apple to apples because we have played fewer games than most teams:
Percentage of schedule played vs Q3/Q4 opponents:
BYU 43
SDST 56.5
CLEM 27.3
ORE 38.9
LSU 41.7
MZ 23.7
VTCH 50
_________________
CT 40
Team winning percentage: Just 2 of the 7-8 projected seeds has a winning percentage less than ours 14-6 .700
When you put it all together you can see the overall difference is not that much. Here is a capsule of the teams with us or chasing us (9-11):
Net Ratings:
9 39
9 28
9 32
CT 31
_________
10 37
10 41
10 51
10 27
___________
11 38
11 72 (Michigan St) Don't see them in at all
11 35
11 40
11 12 (they list 5 at the 11 seed. Colorado is grossly under-seeded (7-0 vs Q2, 3-4 vs Q1). Only 1 other team has 10 or more combined Q1/Q2 wins.
___________
Beating Georgetown was significant. It meant we can only add 1 more loss, while a loss meant a certain 2 losses added, and bubble trouble. I believe even with a loss in the opening round of the BET we are in. We won't drop from a projected 9 seed (better in other projected brackets) to out altogether unless there is a mess of upsets in 1 bid leagues that make them a 2 bid league. I also believe if we win it, we are a 5 seed, or at worst 6. That means we will be 17-6 and 13-2 with Bouknight.
Go Huskies!
