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Message: [QUOTE="Fightin Choke, post: 3018970, member: 2605"] @vowelguy I looked back over the past 10 years to see if the data support your claim and the data do. Here are the pre-NCAA tournament losses for 2-seeds over the past 10 years (40 seeds total from 2009-2018 with 4 teams in each of 10 years). 1-loss: 2018 2-loss: 2011, 2013 3-loss: 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 4-loss: 2009, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2016, 2017, 2017, 2018 5-loss: 2009, 2010, 2100, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2017 6-loss: 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2018 7-loss: 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013 8-loss: 2012 9-loss: 2015 (Sorry, I was having trouble generating a table.) Under the scenario I mentioned (9 losses for South Carolina), it seems unlikely but certainly possible for them to make the tournament (as you both suggested). It happened once in 40 seeds (10% of the years). The mean number of losses for a 2-seed is 4.7 with a standard deviation of 1.7. So I roughly considered anything below 3 losses or above 6 losses to be an outlier, giving us 9/40 instances, which seems fairly high (22.5% total). Low loss outliers Baylor 2018: Only had 1 loss but lost in the Sweet 16 (underperformed) Xavier 2011: Only 2 losses but lost in the 2nd round (vastly underperformed) Duke 2013: Only 2 losses but lost in the Elite 8 (performed at expectation) High loss outliers Kentucky 2015: Had 9 losses and lost in 2nd round (vastly underperformed) Tennessee 2012: Had 8 losses and lost in the Elite 8 (performed at expectation) Texas A&M 2009: Had 7 losses and lost in Sweet 16 (underperformed) Texas A&M 2010: Had 7 losses and lost in 2nd round (vastly underperformed) Notre Dame 2011: Had 7 losses and lost in NC game (greatly overperformed) Kentucky 2013: Had 7 losses and lost in the Elite 8 (performed at expectation) So of the 9 outliers: 1 overperformed 3 performed as expected 5 underperformed Caveat: I didn't check to see how the middle-of-the-pack 2-seeds performed (i.e., teams with 3-6 losses during the regular season) so I cannot yet say whether the outliers underperformed compared to 2-seeds in general. [/QUOTE]

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