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Message: [QUOTE="bmayuc, post: 4006627, member: 493"] I mean, I don't think anyone knows for sure... but the 30th pick in the draft actually signs a 3 year deal. 4th year is an option. so its like 3 years, 5m guaranteed. And unless there is some weird circumstance he'll be riding the pine, and immediately become a small fish in a big marketing pond rather than the other way at State U. And of course notoriously 2nd round deals are often non-guaranteed so that is a consideration. So really the calculation is...(if you are a fringy 1st rounder... say 20-40) Do I go now and get somewhere in the draft and take a risk, or do I keep getting paid ($XXX) and enjoy the college life and develop my game and win awards and be on TV alot playing meaningful games on national TV with coeds and boosters thinking you are god. It kinda inverts the risk analysis since you already have an income and reliability. I'm not pretending to know how its going to play out, but my gut tells me that there will be many, manyyyy fewer fringe players in future drafts, and NIL will tilt the "declare for NBA" from "Yea college is fun but what do I have to lose, I just want to start getting a paycheck somewhere my family needs money" to "ooh, I'm already getting like $100-300k/yr in endorsements, a university paid financial advisor to help me with my money, a free lease from Dan Autoshop to play 35 games a year in front of 15000 for OK State and do some social posts and Bobs Discount Furniture ads... or... maybe getting drafted by the Celtics 33rd, next thing you know you are traded to the Heat for a future 2nd round pick, a donut and 2 bottles of chipotle and playing 75 games for the Sioux Falls Skyforce in front of 350 people on ESPN 8 'The Ocho'. I'm being somewhat facetious but I really do think it will be a sea change in economic security for some of these players, which ultimately will be good for both leagues - The NCAA will have to adapt to the new world, but should see more good players staying in college over time, increased competition for player services as programs adopt different strategies to recruit players and support their earning potential to recruit and (most importantly) keep their players. And for the NBA, they get more mature players - both in age and in life experience who are more practiced in the business side of the game strait out of college, and less fringy guys to wade thru and gamble on. [/QUOTE]

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