Big East Tournament Bracketology

[auror]

Figured we'd get a thread for this. Here is a useful tournament scenario generator for the tournament (mred's Big East MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker).

I also updated my spreadsheet from last year that adds the KenPom win probabilities for each scenario.

As of today (2/26 after Marquette game), UConn's odds for each seed:
3 - 62.37%
4 - 37.38%
6 - 0.25%

Providence has an 86% chance of winning the conference. Nova with the remaining 14% chance to win and 86% chance of 2 seed.
The 6 seed can be any combination of Xavier, Seton Hall, St. John's, or possibly Marquette or Creighton.

 

[auror]

After the weekend update:
2 - 1.96%
3 - 74.30%
4 - 23.74%
5 - 0.00%

Clinched a top 4 seed. Providence won the conference and the #1 seed. There's a slight chance we can get 2 seed I didn't account for previously. A win against Creighton clinches the #3 seed no matter what. Since we're a game up, we can lose to them and still get the 3 if we beat Depaul and they lose to Seton Hall. The most likely 6-seeds at this point we'd play as the 3 seed are Seton Hall or Creighton. As the 4, we'd be very likely to play Marquette.

 

[DFW HOYA]

A sixth seed isn't great, but it gets you Georgetown in the first round.

Sooner or later, the Hoyas will bite someone when they least expect it.

 

[BigFanCT]

Just beat Creighton