Big East Prediction - February 6 edition

[nelsonmuntz]

Conference Standings - 2022 Big East Men's Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

Big East Conference Standings for Men's College Basketball with division standings, games back, team NET, streaks, and conference NET

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1) Providence - I haven't liked this team all year and I think Cooley is winning with mirrors, but they are what their record says they are. They have 1 loss in conference with only 8 games to go, and there are some likely wins left. Providence is probably going to win the regular season championship.
2) Villanova - 3 losses although they have 2 games vs. Providence left. This is a very good, not great team who has some work to do if it wants to win the regular season title. They are in a lot of trouble if Gillespie is seriously hurt.
3) Marquette - 8-1 over last 9, and the schedule lightens up dramatically the rest of the way. I don't think anyone wants any part of Marquette in the post season. This team is tough.
4) Xavier - Might be the best starting 5 in the Big East, but I still don't like the coach. We will learn a lot more in the next few weeks with 2 vs. UConn and 2 vs. Seton Hall.
5) UConn - You are what your record says you are. UConn has 9 games left, against the spectrum of the conference. This could turn out to be a great season or a disappointment. It is up to Hurley and the players.
6) Seton Hall - They need Aiken back or I don't see them getting a bid. With him, they could go on a run.
7) Creighton - Other than the win over UConn, Creighton has not looked great the last few weeks, but they have 4 winnable games coming up so they could be right back in the mix for an at-large in two weeks. Creighton is more inconsistent than any team in the Big East. They can be very good (win over Villanova), and they can suck (17 point loss to Butler). Never know which team will show up.

gap

8) Depaul - Beat Xavier and almost beat UConn. This team is a tough matchup for anyone because they play great defense. The loss of Freeman-Liberty is not really hurting them, so it will be interesting to see how they play when he returns.
9) St. Johns - Team is improving every week. They will be dangerous the rest of the way.
10) Butler - This team has played better than I expected, but the remainder of their schedule is tough (no Georgetown, at SJU and at Depaul), so they may not win another game this season.

gap

11) Georgetown - Still not competitive. 0 for the Big East seems likely at this point.


I know there are still makeup games that may or may not be played. I don't know how to predict those.


I don't understand which games are being made up and which ones are not, so I will assume they are all going to be made up for this analysis.

 

[bendm]

I don't understand which games are being made up and which ones are not, so I will assume they are all going to be made up for this analysis.

the schedules you were looking at include all the makeups I believe

 

[nelsonmuntz]

the schedules you were looking at include all the makeups I believe

I didn't count every team's remaining games, but I don't think everyone gets to 20 games with what is currently on the schedule. Whatever. We can just go off the official schedule for now.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Updated:

1) Villanova - It would be great for UConn to pick this team off, but they are in the driver's seat for the league title now.
2) PC - I think PC is winning with mirrors, but they should go 3-1 the rest of the way.

3) UConn - I think we can afford 2 losses and still finish 3rd. UConn would really have to cake its pants to finish below 4th.
4) Marquette - Their remaining schedule is easier than ours, but UConn wins the head-to-head tiebreaker with Marquette so Marquette is really 1.5 games back, not .5 a game back. That is a lot of ground to make up for a team that only has 4 games left on its schedule.

5) Seton Hall - If they get Aiken back by 2/26, I think they are running the table. They may run the table anyway.
6) Xavier - A tournament team should be able to go 3-2 with Xavier's remaining schedule. We will find out if they are a tournament team.
7) St. Johns - Big win tonight, Posh Alexander will be returning, and their remaining schedule is manageable. Their NET rating is lousy (90 before tonight's win), but the teams are so tightly bunched from 100 to 40 in computer ratings that a 3 or 4 game winning streak would move them up the NET rankings quickly. That Xavier game on 3/2 could effectively be a play in game for both teams.
8) Creighton - it feels like 8-5 and in 4th place tonight is probably Creighton's high water mark for the season. This team plays smart and doesn't give up, and can shoot a little, but it is a year away and there is a tough remaining schedule. Creighton may win 2 and beat someone they aren't supposed to, but they could also lose out without even playing that badly.

9) Butler - I don't know how they beat anyone decent, but they picked up 2 wins in the last 2 weeks. Still, 0-5 the rest of the way seems like a safe bet.
10) Depaul - there is a leftover feature from the Leitao (and earlier) years where Depaul does just enough to lose winnable games. They will beat Georgetown and maybe someone else, but they still have work to do to un-Depaul the program.

11) Georgetown - looks like the players are quitting on Ewing. Sad to see.


I think the Big East is a 6 bid league this season because there will be too many teams knocking each other off. SHU, Xavier, St. Johns and Creighton are probably fighting it out for 2 bids.