Big East bubble scenarios (3/7)

[shizzle787]

Seton Hall: win against DePaul clinches bid

St. John's: win against Georgetown clinches bid

Villanova: win against Creighton and one win in BET clinches bid

Providence: two wins in BET clinches bid

Butler: three bids in BET clinches bid

Wins needed for bid:

19- St. John's (NET: 36), Villanova (NET: 29)
20- Seton Hall (NET: 63)
21- Providence (NET: 61), Butler (NET: 65)

 

[Tenspro2002]

Seems pretty wild that Seton Hall could get a bid with an NET of 60, but Nova would miss with an NET of 30.

 

[shizzle787]

Seems pretty wild that Seton Hall could get a bid with an NET of 60, but Nova would miss with an NET of 30.

Seton Hall would have 20 wins. Nova can't afford to lose in the first round of the BET. Their NET would take a massive hit. If Seton Hall loses in the QF of the BET to St. John's it would be a Quad 1 loss (NCAA considers St. John's at home in BET).

The NET is not the only tool they use, but it is important. Winning %, wins, SOS, good wins, etc... all go into the pile.

 

[BlueMAB]

Seton Hall: win against DePaul clinches bid

St. John's: win against Georgetown clinches bid

Villanova: win against Creighton and one win in BET clinches bid

Providence: two wins in BET clinches bid

Butler: three bids in BET clinches bid

Wins needed for bid:

19- St. John's (NET: 36), Villanova (NET: 29)
20- Seton Hall (NET: 63)
21- Providence (NET: 61), Butler (NET: 65)

I'm curious to hear why SH and SJU beating the two worst teams in the conference would clinch a bid.

What's that opinion based on? Just total wins? Wins + NET?

 

[Fan1978]

Seems pretty wild that Seton Hall could get a bid with an NET of 60, but Nova would miss with an NET of 30.

The net is a ridiculous metric. Fuzzy math for sure

 

[shizzle787]

The net is a ridiculous metric. Fuzzy math for sure

I agree. At the end of the day, a simple way to determine who has a better resume (if two teams have an almost identical record) is SOS.

Wake Forest SOS: 75 (NON-CON SOS: 218) NET: 42
Providence SOS: 103 (NON-CON SOS: 185) NET: 61

If you look at SOS, it makes sense that Wake has a better NET because they had a more difficult schedule. But look deeper, Wake played a non-con SOS of 218 while Providence played a non-con SOS of 185. So the NET thinks an ACC schedule is more difficult than a Big East schedule by a somewhat significant margin. To that I say, LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.

You have to be on drugs to think the ACC is a better league top to bottom than the Big East.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Seton Hall did not crush teams when they won, and they got spanked a few times. I suspect that if you dug in on the games they lost, you would find Holloway clearing the bench early once a game was out of reach to avoid injuries to his top players, since he doesn't really have any depth.

If Seton Hall took a Big 12 approach, they would run up the scores on bad teams and keep their starters in and attacking now matter how unwinnable a game was, and they would have a 40 NET today.

 

[Fan1978]

I agree. At the end of the day, a simple way to determine who has a better resume (if two teams have an almost identical record) is SOS.

Wake Forest SOS: 75 (NON-CON SOS: 218) NET: 42
Providence SOS: 103 (NON-CON SOS: 185) NET: 61

If you look at SOS, it makes sense that Wake has a better NET because they had a more difficult schedule. But look deeper, Wake played a non-con SOS of 218 while Providence played a non-con SOS of 185. So the NET thinks an ACC schedule is more difficult than a Big East schedule by a somewhat significant margin. To that I say, LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.

You have to be on drugs to think the ACC is a better league top to bottom than the Big East.

Exactly, wake deserves zero consideration. Lost to gt at home. They play zero defense and sallis disappears when its go time. All of our bubble teams would smoke wake. Sadly non of the massively overrated acc teams will be in our bracket because unc will. Gt is similar to Georgetown and unc, duke and wake all lost to tech. Clemson played well early ooc and creighton had a few duds. Conference rankings are mostly based on those 2 outliers

 

[businesslawyer]

Seems pretty wild that Seton Hall could get a bid with an NET of 60, but Nova would miss with an NET of 30.

Why would it be wild? We don’t give out at large bids solely on NET rankings. It is one of many things considered.

 

[shizzle787]

I'm curious to hear why SH and SJU beating the two worst teams in the conference would clinch a bid.

What's that opinion based on? Just total wins? Wins + NET?

Wins and NET/SOS. Number to clinch for Seton Hall is 20 and St. John’s is 19.

 

[BlueMAB]

Wins and NET/SOS. Number to clinch for Seton Hall is 20 and St. John’s is 19.

Okay, based on what? Why are those the magic numbers, because you say so?

Help me understand why they're in. Because when opinions like these are posted as facts, it seems it's often done so that if/when they don't make the tournament after winning those games people can claim an anti-Big East bias; instead of accepting the possibility that the committee just didn't think they were good enough.

 

[shizzle787]

Okay, based on what? Why are those the magic numbers, because you say so?

Help me understand why they're in. Because when opinions like these are posted as facts, it seems it's often done so that if/when they don't make the tournament after winning those games people can claim an anti-Big East bias; instead of accepting the possibility that the committee just didn't think they were good enough.

Only twice has a Big East team missed the tournament with 20+ wins on Selection Sunday since the NBE was formed. 2 out of 4 teams with exactly 19 wins have gotten in. The BE is no worse than usual this year. Historical precedent is the answer you are looking for.

 

[willie99]

I agree. At the end of the day, a simple way to determine who has a better resume (if two teams have an almost identical record) is SOS.

Wake Forest SOS: 75 (NON-CON SOS: 218) NET: 42
Providence SOS: 103 (NON-CON SOS: 185) NET: 61

If you look at SOS, it makes sense that Wake has a better NET because they had a more difficult schedule. But look deeper, Wake played a non-con SOS of 218 while Providence played a non-con SOS of 185. So the NET thinks an ACC schedule is more difficult than a Big East schedule by a somewhat significant margin. To that I say, LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.

You have to be on drugs to think the ACC is a better league top to bottom than the Big East.

The problem bubble teams in the Big East have is that they have to play three great teams two times each. And then to get 2 wins in the BET, they have to beat one of those three teams

Other conferences don't have a balanced schedule, you can play the best teams just one time and then win two games before the best teams take the court in their conference tournaments

 

[BlueMAB]

Only twice has a Big East team missed the tournament with 20+ wins on Selection Sunday since the NBE was formed. 2 out of 4 teams with exactly 19 wins have gotten in. The BE is no worse than usual this year. Historical precedent is the answer you are looking for.

Appreciate the explanation. 20 seems like the right number, but 19 wins being 50/50 odds (2 out of 4 teams) hardly seems like a "clinch". You may be right, but I'd bet that if SJU loses to Seton Hall in the 4/5 game, they're probably first four out.

 

[shizzle787]

Appreciate the explanation. 20 seems like the right number, but 19 wins being 50/50 odds (2 out of 4 teams) hardly seems like a "clinch". You may be right, but I'd bet that if SJU loses to Seton Hall in the 4/5 game, they're probably first four out.

I believe 19 will be good for them due to a really strong SOS and NET in the mid-30s should they go 1-1 in the next two.

 

[HitDog]

Exactly, wake deserves zero consideration. Lost to gt at home. They play zero defense and sallis disappears when its go time. All of our bubble teams would smoke wake. Sadly non of the massively overrated acc teams will be in our bracket because unc will. Gt is similar to Georgetown and unc, duke and wake all lost to tech. Clemson played well early ooc and creighton had a few duds. Conference rankings are mostly based on those 2 outliers

 

[HooperScooper]

Sadly non of the massively overrated acc teams will be in our bracket because unc will.

Hope so. Although I hate the revenge factor.

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS — NO. 2 SEED​

Potential pitfall: UConn
Avoiding UConn's region would be a big win for UNC's Final Four hopes. Carolina just does not match up well with the Huskies at all. UConn's versatile playbook had UNC's switch-everything defense looking all out of sorts in the early-December matchup. Donovan Clingan wasn't even playing at the peak of his powers, Stephon Castle was on a minutes restriction, and UConn still had Hubert Davis' crew down 17 with three minutes left.

Any No. 1 seed but UConn is a win for Carolina.

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