Big changes in Massey Ratings

[FanFromMaine]

Today, the top three teams in the Massey Ratings (UConn, Baylor and MsSt) each lost six points from their base values. I have seen this happen often to individual schools but I have never before seen the top three sink in unison like this.

Could the bottom falling out of tOSU reduce everyone elses’s values as well?

 

[UcMiami]

Today, the top three teams in the Massey Ratings (UConn, Baylor and MsSt) each lost six points from their base values. I have seen this happen often to individual schools but I have never before seen the top three sink in unison like this.

Could the bottom falling out of tOSU reduce everyone elses’s values as well?

With Massey and Sagrin which are computer generated based on a wide variety of criteria specific to opponents and scoring margin, the values they generate early in a new year are very suspect because the data is either a year old or it is based on too few results and too few connections between results (common opponents for every team and every opponent.) As the conference season gets into its second month, the data begins to fill in and those issues become better defined. I think we are finally getting to that point where the results should be pretty solid.

That said, no idea what results have caused a sudden move, but if you look at surprise results from the previous day (or week) you will probably find a few victories or losses on teams resumes that have become less or more significant. There are a few teams that looked really strong a few days ago that are struggling now including TN, SC and Rutgers. And because the programs use MOV as well it doesn't actually have to be losses, it can be 2 point wins by a good program over a really poor program.

 

[CocoHusky]

Today, the top three teams in the Massey Ratings (UConn, Baylor and MsSt) each lost six points from their base values. I have seen this happen often to individual schools but I have never before seen the top three sink in unison like this.

Could the bottom falling out of tOSU reduce everyone elses’s values as well?

Is there an translation of this post available?
What is a base value?
Don't care about Baylor or Mississippi State, but is someone trying to diss UCONN?

 

[FanFromMaine]

Is there an translation of this post available?
What is a base value?
Don't care about Baylor or Mississippi State, but is someone trying to diss UCONN?

Both the Massey and Sagarin computer systems create a single numerical value for each team. This value is then used to rank order each team. In Massey, all 1000 NCAA schools in all 3 divisions are ranked which is amazing to me.

As UcMiami pointed out, the further into the season you go, the more refined this value becomes just by dint of having more data. This year UConn has been ranked number 1 all season but the value rating has varied from a high of 3.22 to a low of 3.00, which is today’s number.

My question referred to a sudden, significant dip in the value of each of the top three teams: UConn, Baylor and MsSt. As UcMiami rightfully points out, a team’s value varies not only because of its wins and losses but also because of the quality of the Game (did you beat an opponent as your value “line” indicated you should or not). And the computers constantly check the same thing for polenta you’ve played; the win by UConn over tOSU early in the season not carry as much significance now as the Buckeyes are struggling.

So, my original request was to help me speculate as to which team(s) floundering would lead to all three top teams losing significant value over yesterday in unison, something I have never seen before. Often top teams take small losses in unison but this was much larger.

UcMiami suggests SC, TN and Rutgers as teams who started strong but have cooled off recently. I suggested tOSU. Who’s your choice for the team(s) that caused the Great Recession???

 

[CocoHusky]

Both the Massey and Sagarin computer systems create a single numerical value for each team. This value is then used to rank order each team. In Massey, all 1000 NCAA schools in all 3 divisions are ranked which is amazing to me.

As UcMiami pointed out, the further into the season you go, the more refined this value becomes just by dint of having more data. This year UConn has been ranked number 1 all season but the value rating has varied from a high of 3.22 to a low of 3.00, which is today’s number.

My question referred to a sudden, significant dip in the value of each of the top three teams: UConn, Baylor and MsSt. As UcMiami rightfully points out, a team’s value varies not only because of its wins and losses but also because of the quality of the Game (did you beat an opponent as your value “line” indicated you should or not). And the computers constantly check the same thing for polenta you’ve played; the win by UConn over tOSU early in the season not carry as much significance now as the Buckeyes are struggling.

So, my original request was to help me speculate as to which team(s) floundering would lead to all three top teams losing significant value over yesterday in unison, something I have never seen before. Often top teams take small losses in unison but this was much larger.

UcMiami suggests SC, TN and Rutgers as teams who started strong but have cooled off recently. I suggested tOSU. Who’s your choice for the team(s) that caused the Great Recession???

Thanks for the explanation. Not sure if there is a correlation or not but the three biggest movers in the coaches poll are TCU +11 spots, tOSU -6, and Iowa -5.

 

[Orangutan]

One of the three methods Sagarin uses weights recent performance more heavily. Tennessee is ranked 68 by this method and Ohio State is ranked 53. They are still #12 and #13, respectively, in Sagarin because they are much stronger in his other two methods.

I have no idea what is causing the fluctuations in the Massey numbers but Sagarin has surely taken notice of Ohio State's recent struggles.

Sagarin top 10, by the way: