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Message: [QUOTE="XOVERX, post: 4700538, member: 3118"] I am supremely confident the ACC exodus will be larger than Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA. If they expand at all, the B1G and SEC will expand to 20 schools, I think, and mostly out of the ACC. I argue upthread that the B1G will be pressured by USCLA to take Washington and Oregon (Oregon has massive expansion advantages over Arizona, from gameday draw to TV viewership). With WA and OR, the B1G is at 18. Let’s just concede UNC and UVA to the B1G. The B1G is at 20. Done for the near term? IMO, the SEC is not going void in the States of Virginia and North Carolina. When the ACC opens up, and the opportunity arises for the SEC to go north of South Carolina, the SEC will not hesitate to strike. What are the SEC targets north of SC? First, can we agree that the SEC may be more flexible than the B1G? The SEC philosophy is that a sports league is about money, not courses on the rise and fall of the slide rule or AAU membership. Academics are great and all, but the SEC’s bottom line is financial. It’s about the money. The SEC aspires to great academic schools, like the B1G does, sure, but the SEC will more quickly settle for a less prestigious school than will the B1G if that less prestigious school will make the SEC money. Truth be told, UVA is a below average sports expansion candidate for either the B1G or the SEC (due to poor stadium draw, a dearth of big games, and low TV viewers). Three strikes and you’re out, to indulge a baseball metaphor? Or is UVA merely fouling balls off, due to their academic standing? You pick. From the pov of the SEC, VPI may be the better addition over UVA, period. UVA’s 5-year average gameday draw is around 41-42k / game and it’s TV viewer numbers have been #79 (237k) and #52 (611k) over the past two years. OTOH, VPI’s 5-year average attendance is 60k per game (!), and, although, like UVA, VPI’s TV is poor (#76-265k and #62-447k), the SEC may believe it can more easily create “big games” with VPI because VPI has a significant fan base, compared with that of UVA. The B1G no doubt prefers that UVA academic prestige - which is considerable - but the SEC will have no problem turning to VPI, if necessary. Conceding UNC to the B1G arguendo, NCSU draws about 56k / game compared to UNC’s 48k / game. With UNC, it’s about okay football and blue blood basketball, right? You take UNC if you can. As for the State of North Carolina, I have no doubt UNC is an SEC target. But the SEC will immediately take NCSU if UNC goes B1G. In fact, there’s a way of thinking the SEC would take both UNC and NCSU if it can. Now add in the defection of the ACC big dogs - Clemson and FSU. Suddenly, the ACC is looking spartan. Finally, I think there might be an outside chance that either the SEC or the B1G goes to 21, and adds Miami or maybe Pitt. A 21-school league is fully coherent and functional with 2 protected, 8 conference, and a 3-cycle. IOW, when the ACC collapses - and it seems an ACC collapse is inevitable - is UConn comfortable in an ACC sans, possibly, all of Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Polytechnic, North Carolina, North Carolina State, and possibly Miami and/or Pitt? Keep in mind this is only a B1G/SEC move to 20 or 21. If the number is 24, then Miami and Piitt are definitely gone, and Louisville and Duke may be gone too. Is the ACC stable? No. Not past 2030 to 2031 almost for sure. But there’s a lot of smoke rising from the ACC today in 2023. Back in the day, when folks saw smoke signals coming from the mountain over yonder, they didn’t have to see the Indians to know the Indians were around. Indirect evidence is a thing. Is the B12 stable? Yes. Having said that, maybe KU is a target, due to their basketball? Maybe Iowa State is a target, due to good gameday draw (#28-57k) and impressive numbers of TV viewers (#42-882k & #27-1.219m)? [My SEC friends laugh uncontrollably when I point out ISU’s nice expansion metrics (compared with other schools not named Clemson, ND, FSU, and Washington).] Anyhow, UConn. I think the B12 is much more stable than the ACC. If an offer to UConn from the ACC were extended today, yeah, the ACC, nice league, join up. You’re good for 10 years (no guarantee thereafter). But I don’t need to tell you there’s no UConn offer today. However, there might be a B12 offer soon (if Yormack has any say in the matter - and he does). To me, no-brainer, UConn should take a B12 offer, join a stable league, work up football attendance (#88-22k), cultivate TV viewers (#82-212k), work toward AAU, wait for the breakaway, join the B1G or SEC. Simple formula. Even for an dumb SEC guy like me! [/QUOTE]

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