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Message: [QUOTE="auror, post: 4731106, member: 1329"] Self's tournament resume is pretty interesting. He's got the same thing as Coach K where he ranks extremely poorly as far as Win Expectation against his Seed (390th/415), but quite strongly when when considering Win Expectation against KenPom Rank (even better than K at 15th/415) over last 20 years. Some of this effect is that it is [I]very[/I] difficult for 1 seeds to outperform their expectation. They have to make the F4 to technically exceed their seed expectations, and #1 seeds on average only make the F4 40% of the time, so 60% of the time the seed as a whole fails to meet their expectation (2 seeds make Elite 8 45% of the time, 3 seeds make Sweet 16 52% of the time, 4 seeds Sweet 16 47%, etc. etc. #1 seeds are by far the lowest). Also, at most two 1 seeds per tournament can exceed expectations, and then they can only exceed by 2 wins max, whereas a 7 seed can exceed by 5 wins or whatever in the same run. Basketball is closer to a coin flip for top seeds than it is to a guarantee that a better team should win every time. So by needing to win 4 games just to equal your expectation, your odds are that you are going to lose a 60/40 coinflip at some point. Self usually overperforms his metrics during the regular season in earning consistently high seeds even when his teams aren't the absolute best, usually by winning a lot of close games due to his stellar coaching (he's been top 100 in KenPom luck every year with the exception of the super young Embiid/Wiggins team and often top 25). Of the 10 1-seeds his teams have gotten, they've been average KenPom rank of 4.9 (median 4), so more often than not undeserving of 1 by efficiency performance. Only twice of the 10 times they got 1 seeds were they KenPom overall #1 or #2. (these are all post-tournament numbers for convenience sake). The specifics are interesting too. A few times he made the Elite 8 or even Sweet 16 and then just ran into a super strong team. 2016 Nova was a 2 seed in their region, so Kansas in retrospect were underdogs in the Elite 8 despite being KenPom #3 overall. 2013 they had runner up Michigan in their bracket as a 4 seed. This past year they would have been underdogs against us in the Sweet 16 if they made it (they didn't but Self wasn't coaching so not on him). They had to play the #6 KenPom team in the 2nd round against Evan Mobley USC a few years ago as a 3 seed. They were in a 4/5 game against Auburn the tournament before that and were KenPom underdogs as the 4 and Auburn won and went on to upset the 1 and make the F4. 2018 they ran into juggernaut Nova despite making the F4 after entering the tournament KenPom #10 overall. There's a lot of that in their tournament history. [/QUOTE]

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