Best and Realistic Expectations for Tournament Credits

[tzznandrew]

Now that brackets are out, how will the AAC perform?

Best case?

3. Houston

This isn't a terrible draw for them to make the second weekend. Georgia St. should be an easy win. Iowa St. is underseeded, but they should be able to beat them, and as always there's a chance that Iowa State won't make it. Kentucky is a tough one, and UNC is really good, so I'd say Houston's best chance is an upset.

Best Case: 3 wins, E8 loss (10%)
Likely Case: 2 wins, S16 loss (70%)

20%: 1 win, second round flameout.

7. Cincinnati

Again, not a terrible draw. They're in Ohio, somehow. But Iowa is the sort of team that gives them hell: a strong shooting team that's fundamentally sound. Tennessee, on the other hand...I think they could gum them up and win that game if they got there. Once they're into a matchup against Purdue or Villanova, that's it.

Best case: 2 wins, S16 loss (10%)
Likely case: 1 win, second round loss (35%)
Worst case: 0 wins, first round loss (45%)

9. UCF

UCF can beat VCU. But not Duke.

Best case: 1 win, second round loss (30%)
Worst case: 0 wins (70%)

11. Temple

Temple can beat Belmont, and, they can beat Maryland. And given the chaos around LSU, they can beat LSU. They won't, but it is possible.

Best case: 3 wins, S15 loss (5%)
Slightly better case: 2 wins (10%)
Potential: 1 win (30%)
Likely/Worst Case: 0 wins (55%)

So, the conference has a chance to get somewhere around 5-6 tournament credits on the upper end. Likely, they get 4?

 

[zls44]

First Four=extra tourney credit if Temple wins

 

[ucp990411]

Now that brackets are out, how will the AAC perform?

Best case?

3. Houston

This isn't a terrible draw for them to make the second weekend. Georgia St. should be an easy win. Iowa St. is underseeded, but they should be able to beat them, and as always there's a chance that Iowa State won't make it. Kentucky is a tough one, and UNC is really good, so I'd say Houston's best chance is an upset.

Best Case: 3 wins, E8 loss (10%)
Likely Case: 2 wins, S16 loss (70%)

20%: 1 win, second round flameout.

7. Cincinnati

Again, not a terrible draw. They're in Ohio, somehow. But Iowa is the sort of team that gives them hell: a strong shooting team that's fundamentally sound. Tennessee, on the other hand...I think they could gum them up and win that game if they got there. Once they're into a matchup against Purdue or Villanova, that's it.

Best case: 2 wins, S16 loss (10%)
Likely case: 1 win, second round loss (35%)
Worst case: 0 wins, first round loss (45%)

9. UCF

UCF can beat VCU. But not Duke.

Best case: 1 win, second round loss (30%)
Worst case: 0 wins (70%)

11. Temple

Temple can beat Belmont, and, they can beat Maryland. And given the chaos around LSU, they can beat LSU. They won't, but it is possible.

Best case: 3 wins, S15 loss (5%)
Slightly better case: 2 wins (10%)
Potential: 1 win (30%)
Likely/Worst Case: 0 wins (55%)

So, the conference has a chance to get somewhere around 5-6 tournament credits on the upper end. Likely, they get 4?

LSU is going down in the first round

 

[navery12]

I'm sure I'll tweak my bracket. But right now I have Houston taking out Kentucky

 

[CTBasketball]

I'm sure I'll tweak my bracket. But right now I have Houston taking out Kentucky

I would tweak that.

 

[Travelman6]

Tough draw for cincy imo. Iowa is not great by any means, but under seeded as a 10.