- Joined
- Jan 6, 2015
- Messages
- 7,490
- Reaction Score
- 62,043
Fans of both Baylor and UConn can project that Wednesday is a major opportunity for redemption as expectations for both team’s non-conference play has not reached the lofty aspirations of two teams that started the year within the top-eight of the AP preseason poll and have won three of the last four national titles. In short, both teams have impressed on the offense, but are struggling to find defensive synergy, especially on the perimeter.
Now in his 22nd season at Waco, Scott Drew has steadily built up his resume to be considered one of the best active head coaches and this team’s style reflects the classic Baylor Bears formula: a slow-paced halfcourt offense with a high A/FGM ratio, a strong perimeter game and dominance on the offensive boards. Drew’s defenses are very aggressive and prioritize creating discomfort on the perimeter by generating turnovers, however, like this year, over-aggression can sometimes lead to wide open shot opportunities, a la what we can see sometimes in a Rick Pitino defense.
Like UConn, Baylor returns only one starter from last year, so the defense has yet to be settled and it is fair to expect that Baylor, like UConn, will be a program that will trend up as the team gets more reps.
For UConn, the biggest matchup will be handling their two-big starting lineup with former Miami big Norchad Omier (6’7 240) starting as the team’s power forward. Omier was Miami’s starting center when UConn defeated the Hurricanes in the Final Four semifinals and the fifth-year senior is arguably the strongest player in college basketball and a double-double threat as he currently ranks nationally in the top-35 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. About 2/3rds of Omier’s minutes feature him at the 5 with sharpshooter Jalen Celestine (42 3P%) at the stretch-4, but the puzzle for Hurley is matching up Omier at the 4 when playing alongside starting center Josh Ojianwuna, who keeps it simple on offense, but on defense, Ojianwuna is an aggressive, versatile defender who generates steals, blocks and is also exceptional on the offensive boards. The “Double O” big lineup is limited offensively, but make up Drew’s best defensive lineups based on their size, aggression and also Celestine’s limitations on defense at the 4. That being said, Karaban, or whichever player is at the 4, should feast when Celestine comes off the bench. Four-star freshman Jason Asemota has yet to earn regular minutes and while he is not expected to impact Wednesday’s game, his seven-foot wingspan and all-around potential makes him a tantalizing long-term prospect.
Baylor’s five-man backcourt boasts a ton of potential and have already impressed on the offensive end, but are still working out their kinks on the perimeter defense. The backcourt is led by fifth-year senior Jeremy Roach, a Duke transfer that is a steady, veteran point guard who can score in a variety of ways, especially after improving his three-point efficiency in each season at Duke to the point where it is now one of his strengths. When Roach is paired with freshman point guard Robert O Wright, the impact is mercurial – the offense flows at its highest rate and both are excellent shooters, but both players are the team’s weakest backcourt defenders, especially Wright, who now, is considered a weak defender while Roach is a hair above average.
One can argue that senior guard Jayden Nunn is the team’s best all-around player. As one of the best defensive guards in the nation, Nunn is also a career 41.5% shooter from three, is a good secondary ball-handler/distributor and can create offense off the bounce. Playing his way to a future NBA contract, Nunn starts at the 2, but also plays the defensive specialist 3 in the smaller lineups alongside Roach and Wright.
The highest ranked recruit in Baylor history, VJ Edgecombe entered the season with a ton of hype after his impressive play for the Bahamian National Team in the Olympic Qualifying Rounds (16.5p, 5.5r, 3.8a, 2.0s, 38.5 3P%). At the NCAA level, he’s still working on his shooting efficiency, but he’s a lot like Andre Jackson as his exceptional athleticism and motor drive his defensive play and he also possesses excellent vision and creativity as a wing-point, and is as well a very dangerous above-the-rim dunker. Few players in NCAA history at his 6’5 180 frame average 3.7 “stocks” per game (steals plus blocks), but Edgecomb is the team’s X-factor. Along with Nunn at the 2 and the two bigs, Baylor’s starting lineup with Edgecomb at the 3 is easily the team’s most dangerous defensive unit, but sorely lacks spacing with only Roach and Nunn as reliable floor spacers.
Rounding out the backcourt is redshirt junior Langston Love, a muscular 6’5 210 wing that backs up at the 3 and the 4. Injuries have plagued his career at Baylor, but he can stuff the stat sheet in short spells thanks to his all-around play, shooting efficiency in the halfcourt, physicality to get to the rim and ability to generate turnovers. The toll of injuries has forced his athleticism to take a step back, which affects his defensive versatility, but Love’s motor and defensive awareness is strong. Working his way back from an ankle rehab from the offseason, Love has now played three consecutive games and while his minutes increase, Edgecomb’s and Celestine’s might decrease a bit.
The biggest bugaboo for Baylor has been their defensive efficiency on the perimeter: opponents are shooting 41% from three (9th worst in the nation) and the team’s 3PA/FGA prevention is currently under the 25th percentile. That being said, Baylor’s perimeter woes can work to UConn’s advantage, especially as Aidan Mahaney and Jayden Ross are working to reach their potential on the perimeter. Both teams play at a slower pace, but based on both team’s offensive efficiency and defensive instability, my guess is the team that scores 70 points first wins.
Now in his 22nd season at Waco, Scott Drew has steadily built up his resume to be considered one of the best active head coaches and this team’s style reflects the classic Baylor Bears formula: a slow-paced halfcourt offense with a high A/FGM ratio, a strong perimeter game and dominance on the offensive boards. Drew’s defenses are very aggressive and prioritize creating discomfort on the perimeter by generating turnovers, however, like this year, over-aggression can sometimes lead to wide open shot opportunities, a la what we can see sometimes in a Rick Pitino defense.
Like UConn, Baylor returns only one starter from last year, so the defense has yet to be settled and it is fair to expect that Baylor, like UConn, will be a program that will trend up as the team gets more reps.
For UConn, the biggest matchup will be handling their two-big starting lineup with former Miami big Norchad Omier (6’7 240) starting as the team’s power forward. Omier was Miami’s starting center when UConn defeated the Hurricanes in the Final Four semifinals and the fifth-year senior is arguably the strongest player in college basketball and a double-double threat as he currently ranks nationally in the top-35 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. About 2/3rds of Omier’s minutes feature him at the 5 with sharpshooter Jalen Celestine (42 3P%) at the stretch-4, but the puzzle for Hurley is matching up Omier at the 4 when playing alongside starting center Josh Ojianwuna, who keeps it simple on offense, but on defense, Ojianwuna is an aggressive, versatile defender who generates steals, blocks and is also exceptional on the offensive boards. The “Double O” big lineup is limited offensively, but make up Drew’s best defensive lineups based on their size, aggression and also Celestine’s limitations on defense at the 4. That being said, Karaban, or whichever player is at the 4, should feast when Celestine comes off the bench. Four-star freshman Jason Asemota has yet to earn regular minutes and while he is not expected to impact Wednesday’s game, his seven-foot wingspan and all-around potential makes him a tantalizing long-term prospect.
Baylor’s five-man backcourt boasts a ton of potential and have already impressed on the offensive end, but are still working out their kinks on the perimeter defense. The backcourt is led by fifth-year senior Jeremy Roach, a Duke transfer that is a steady, veteran point guard who can score in a variety of ways, especially after improving his three-point efficiency in each season at Duke to the point where it is now one of his strengths. When Roach is paired with freshman point guard Robert O Wright, the impact is mercurial – the offense flows at its highest rate and both are excellent shooters, but both players are the team’s weakest backcourt defenders, especially Wright, who now, is considered a weak defender while Roach is a hair above average.
One can argue that senior guard Jayden Nunn is the team’s best all-around player. As one of the best defensive guards in the nation, Nunn is also a career 41.5% shooter from three, is a good secondary ball-handler/distributor and can create offense off the bounce. Playing his way to a future NBA contract, Nunn starts at the 2, but also plays the defensive specialist 3 in the smaller lineups alongside Roach and Wright.
The highest ranked recruit in Baylor history, VJ Edgecombe entered the season with a ton of hype after his impressive play for the Bahamian National Team in the Olympic Qualifying Rounds (16.5p, 5.5r, 3.8a, 2.0s, 38.5 3P%). At the NCAA level, he’s still working on his shooting efficiency, but he’s a lot like Andre Jackson as his exceptional athleticism and motor drive his defensive play and he also possesses excellent vision and creativity as a wing-point, and is as well a very dangerous above-the-rim dunker. Few players in NCAA history at his 6’5 180 frame average 3.7 “stocks” per game (steals plus blocks), but Edgecomb is the team’s X-factor. Along with Nunn at the 2 and the two bigs, Baylor’s starting lineup with Edgecomb at the 3 is easily the team’s most dangerous defensive unit, but sorely lacks spacing with only Roach and Nunn as reliable floor spacers.
Rounding out the backcourt is redshirt junior Langston Love, a muscular 6’5 210 wing that backs up at the 3 and the 4. Injuries have plagued his career at Baylor, but he can stuff the stat sheet in short spells thanks to his all-around play, shooting efficiency in the halfcourt, physicality to get to the rim and ability to generate turnovers. The toll of injuries has forced his athleticism to take a step back, which affects his defensive versatility, but Love’s motor and defensive awareness is strong. Working his way back from an ankle rehab from the offseason, Love has now played three consecutive games and while his minutes increase, Edgecomb’s and Celestine’s might decrease a bit.
The biggest bugaboo for Baylor has been their defensive efficiency on the perimeter: opponents are shooting 41% from three (9th worst in the nation) and the team’s 3PA/FGA prevention is currently under the 25th percentile. That being said, Baylor’s perimeter woes can work to UConn’s advantage, especially as Aidan Mahaney and Jayden Ross are working to reach their potential on the perimeter. Both teams play at a slower pace, but based on both team’s offensive efficiency and defensive instability, my guess is the team that scores 70 points first wins.
