Baylor Closing in On UConn According to Massey Predictions

[Charliebball]

Here are the current AP Top Ten and the Massey predictions were they to play UConn now

AP Top 25
RK TEAM RECORD PTS Massey Score Massey W%
1 Connecticut (33) 13-0 825 ------ ---------
2 Baylor 13-1 (781) 73-68 65%-35%
3 Maryland 13-1 (739) 81-68 87%-13%
4 Mississippi State 15-0 (714) 77-60 92%-8%
5 South Carolina 11-1 (691) 74-63 84%-16%
6 Florida State 13-1 (654) 77-63 90%-10%
7 Notre Dame 12-2 (651) 75-63 85%-15%
8 Louisville 13-2 (610) 77-58 95%-5%
9 UCLA 11-2 (551) 78-59 95%-5%
10 Stanford 12-2 (497) 74-57 93%-7%

 

[Wbbfan1]

Don't know if its the level of competition or if Baylor has actually improved, but they are playing good/great Basketball. They are dominating teams and their inside post play is playing like I thought they would against UConn. Baylor is a team I wouldn't mind seeing lose before the F4 if UConn gets there this year.

 

[alexrgct]

ND, Baylor, FSU, and Maryland: all still top 10 Massey-rated squads, all vanquished by UConn. Of course South Carolina awaits too.
Meanwhile, Texas is a quality program to schedule, while LSU is in the usually-solid SEC. Dayton and Chattanooga have been giant killers at various times in their existence, and Ohio State had spent time in the top 10-15 this season as well.

This has been truly a great first 1/3 of the season. The AAC doesn't do UConn favors in terms of SOS, but UConn, to its credit, has scheduled excellent OOC opponents thus far.

 

[Ozimoto]

I don't think anyone should be surprised by this.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Current Massey match up with Baylor UConn 73-68 with a 65% win probability. Massey Ratings

We have to keep getting better - everyone.

 

[bags27]

Do they seriously think there's an 84% chance of UConn beating South Carolina? I don't! (but I'm a worrier).

Of course, the South Carolina game will be at UConn, so maybe that's factored in. But the other games are hypothetical, so there's no factoring in home or away, I guess, but rather neutral court.

 

[oldude]

Hopefully, Geno will be able to employ the same strategy that he did in the Baylor game, as seen last night on All Access....Yell out to Danger, "Win the game Crystal!"

 

[trb123]

Here are the current AP Top Ten and the Massey predictions were they to play UConn now

AP Top 25
RK TEAM RECORD PTS Massey Score Massey W%
1 Connecticut (33) 13-0 825 ------ ---------
2 Baylor 13-1 (781) 73-68 65%-35%
3 Maryland 13-1 (739) 81-68 87%-13%
4 Mississippi State 15-0 (714) 77-60 92%-8%
5 South Carolina 11-1 (691) 74-63 84%-16%
6 Florida State 13-1 (654) 77-63 90%-10%
7 Notre Dame 12-2 (651) 75-63 85%-15%
8 Louisville 13-2 (610) 77-58 95%-5%
9 UCLA 11-2 (551) 78-59 95%-5%
10 Stanford 12-2 (497) 74-57 93%-7%

Stanford at #10 is too low for academics and too high for basketball.
Ask the Samuelsons for confirmation.

 

[HopJim]

Don't know if its the level of competition or if Baylor has actually improved, but they are playing good/great Basketball. They are dominating teams and their inside post play is playing like I thought they would against UConn. Baylor is a team I wouldn't mind seeing lose before the F4 if UConn gets there this year.

Second your thoughts on Baylor. Living in Dallas area (yes, I will be at SMU game), I get many of their games and their style is much more aggressive and confident than when they played Huskies. Not the same degree of difficulty as UConn's, but tougher schedule than most other Top 10 teams.

 

[Charliebball]

Second your thoughts on Baylor. Living in Dallas area (yes, I will be at SMU game), I get many of their games and their style is much more aggressive and confident than when they played Huskies. Not the same degree of difficulty as UConn's, but tougher schedule than most other Top 10 teams.

Everybody plays more aggressively and with more confidence when they're NOT playing UConn!!!

 

[BroadwayVa]

Current Massey match up with Baylor UConn 73-68 with a 65% win probability. Massey Ratings

We have to keep getting better - everyone.

If Uconn meets Baylor---Baylor shall be much better . If Mulkey isn't just a pretty face with interesting clothing--she will fix any failure of the Nov UConn/Baylor game.
Geno--who (as reported) looks toward how his team may be beaten-shall fix his teams failing--he just can't invent size--
I'm sure any new wrinkles shall have to come from his bench.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Hopefully, Geno will be able to employ the same strategy that he did in the Baylor game, as seen last night on All Access....Yell out to Danger, "Win the game Crystal!"

Some will think you are kidding----I believe if you point the way---Crystal Dangerfield will deliver the score. I'd be thrilled if Chong started averaging 12 points a game--and Molly with 8--they both need to step up the scoring.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Do they seriously think there's an 84% chance of UConn beating South Carolina? I don't! (but I'm a worrier).

Of course, the South Carolina game will be at UConn, so maybe that's factored in. But the other games are hypothetical, so there's no factoring in home or away, I guess, but rather neutral court.

Bags---not to worry . My prediction UConn 78 and USC 73 ---to me that's 100 percent. Remember
Everyone had UConn losing to: Baylor, Notre Dame, Ohio St (some ), MD--many had them as SURE losses.
I know UC and Geno are not like the Pope--and Geno's program actually has warts--and for all the hype Geno is only human
so I ask you how often have you been wrong this season when Uconn played a top 10 team??? Hmmm???

 

[oldude]

Some will think you are kidding----I believe if you point the way---Crystal Dangerfield will deliver the score. I'd be thrilled if Chong started averaging 12 points a game--and Molly with 8--they both need to step up the scoring.

There was another point on the All Access show that came during a time-out in the LSU game where Geno looked at Saniya and told her, "You are going to score on this play," and of course Saniya took over the game in the 2nd half. I think if Geno told anyone on his team to run through a wall they would probably lower their head and take off for the nearest wall in sight.

 

[chuck.r]

If I remember Mulkey's comments before and after the November game; she sounded like she was still sorting through all the new toys she had on her bench to play with. She was in the middle of testing and evaluating effective player combinations, particularly at post. I imagine the dust has settled for her on proper roles and rotation depth. Baylor should be scary good come March.

 

[oldude]

There is a common platitude from talking sports heads that you don't want to face UConn for the 1st time in the NCAA tournament, having not played them before, but for the life of me, I can't think of a single time when UConn beat a team in the regular season only to lose to them in the NCAA tourney. Perhaps it occurred in the old Big East tourney.

While you may learn something about UConn when you play them during the season, I guarantee you that Geno and his staff are learning a lot more about your team and how to go about beating you even worse. Best example is ND during the 2012-13 season. ND beat UConn 3 straight times in Big East regular and post season play, only to get buried by the Huskies in the national semi-final. If Kim Mulkey learned anything by playing UConn this season, it was probably that she was mistaken to schedule UConn this season, even after the departure of the Big 3.

 

[BroadwayVa]

There was another point on the All Access show that came during a time-out in the LSU game where Geno looked at Saniya and told her, "You are going to score on this play," and of course Saniya took over the game in the 2nd half. I think if Geno told anyone on his team to run through a wall they would probably lower their head and take off for the nearest wall in sight.

h
You are sooooo right! They wouldn't ask where or how high.
That fire he lit---only burned for that game. It's frustrating to think that kids like Saniya have shown fantastic scoring and ability at the point--and defer to the (mainly) other 3 to score. Dangerfield is a scoring/speed machine--we saw her last night end to end and weave thur the setup defense and score/easily. Geno light that fire until it burn steadily!!!

 

[HoopsFan21]

I keep reading this from various posters. What evidence do people who keep writing this have to justify these claims?

 

[BroadwayVa]

There is a common platitude from talking sports heads that you don't want to face UConn for the 1st time in the NCAA tournament, having not played them before, but for the life of me, I can't think of a single time when UConn beat a team in the regular season only to lose to them in the NCAA tourney. Perhaps it occurred in the old Big East tourney.

While you may learn something about UConn when you play them during the season, I guarantee you that Geno and his staff are learning a lot more about your team and how to go about beating you even worse. Best example is ND during the 2012-13 season. ND beat UConn 3 straight times in Big East regular and post season play, only to get buried by the Huskies in the national semi-final. If Kim Mulkey learned anything by playing UConn this season, it was probably that she was mistaken to schedule UConn this season, even after the departure of the Big 3.

2001 ND BE tourney---loss in Final 4 (but that was because the kids were mad at Geno for the half time chewing--BS)
I believe you learn nothing much by losing---that you can't learn by watching game tapes.
If you play Geno once in the season--win or lose--he'll have something new for you in the Tourney.

 

[bags27]

2001 ND BE tourney---loss in Final 4 (but that was because the kids were mad at Geno for the half time chewing--BS)
I believe you learn nothing much by losing---that you can't learn by watching game tapes.
If you play Geno once in the season--win or lose--he'll have something new for you in the Tourney.

Wasn't that the game when D went something like 0-12 in the 2nd half, coming off sobbing?

 

[JoePgh]

There is a common platitude from talking sports heads that you don't want to face UConn for the 1st time in the NCAA tournament, having not played them before, but for the life of me, I can't think of a single time when UConn beat a team in the regular season only to lose to them in the NCAA tourney. Perhaps it occurred in the old Big East tourney.

While you may learn something about UConn when you play them during the season, I guarantee you that Geno and his staff are learning a lot more about your team and how to go about beating you even worse. Best example is ND during the 2012-13 season. ND beat UConn 3 straight times in Big East regular and post season play, only to get buried by the Huskies in the national semi-final. If Kim Mulkey learned anything by playing UConn this season, it was probably that she was mistaken to schedule UConn this season, even after the departure of the Big 3.

I don't think it is a "platitude". There are actually very few examples of teams beating UConn in the NCAA tournament if they did NOT play them during the season. There are far more examples of teams beating UConn in the tournament after losing to them during the season:

• 2001 (as pointed out): ND won in the National Semifinals after losing in the Big East.
• 2007: LSU lost to UConn by one point in Baton Rouge (last second shot with foot on line meant that UConn won), and then beat UConn by about 20 in the tournament.
• 2008: Stanford lost by 12 to UConn at a Thanksgiving tournament, then won by 9 in the National Semifinals;
• 2011 and 2012: ND won in the National Semifinals despite losing 1 of 3 games in the season to UConn.

I think that Stanford in 2005 and Duke in 2006 were the only 21st-century instances where a team that did not play UConn in the season beat them in the tournament, and those were not very good UConn teams by normal UConn standards. (And the Duke loss was in OT after Charde missed a buzzer shot.)

I also disagree with the statement that an opponent doesn't learn anything from playing UConn that it couldn't learn by viewing tapes. Viewing tapes will never tell you how UConn would deal with your players, your offense, and your defense. It won't give your players a tangible sense of how quickly UConn moves the ball or how many of your passes they are able to tip. Do you think that Mississippi State would have jogged back on defense in the tournament if they had lost to UConn by 60 in the regular season by doing that?

Remember the 50-point loss by Texas in the Sweet 16 in Albany recently? The next year, Texas played a competitive game in the Elite 8 and lost by less than 20, with largely the same teams on both sides. I think that if Texas had played UConn in the season and endured the 50-point loss, they would have experienced the competitive loss in the Albany tournament game. Karen Aston seemed to think before playing UConn that the winning edge could be obtained by taking the ball into the paint against Stewart and Stokes. She learned the bankruptcy of that strategy in the blowout game, and even though Stokes had graduated, she still did not rely as much on paint points in the following year's Elite 8 game.

It's true that Geno learns something as well from an in-season game with the same opponent, but on balance, I think an in-season game helps the opponent more. Geno has said that he prefers to play teams in the tournament that he has NOT faced in the season.

 

[bags27]

I don't think it is a "platitude". There are actually very few examples of teams beating UConn in the NCAA tournament if they did NOT play them during the season. .

What makes you think that a platitude isn't something that's true? I've, at least, always understood it to mean something that's said so often (usually precisely because it is true) that it loses its urgency or impact.

 

[eebmg]

Do they seriously think there's an 84% chance of UConn beating South Carolina? I don't! (but I'm a worrier).

Of course, the South Carolina game will be at UConn, so maybe that's factored in. But the other games are hypothetical, so there's no factoring in home or away, I guess, but rather neutral court.

I think the % values are based on a neutral site game location. 84% seems reasonable to me.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Do they seriously think there's an 84% chance of UConn beating South Carolina? I don't! (but I'm a worrier).

Of course, the South Carolina game will be at UConn, so maybe that's factored in. But the other games are hypothetical, so there's no factoring in home or away, I guess, but rather neutral court.

I think Massey has UConn rated too highly. Believe it or not I think there is still a residual impact from last year's Massey rating.

I'd go with Sagarin (predictor column) which has UConn and Baylor essentially tied, but significantly ahead of all others.