Baylor: are they going to run the table this season? | The Boneyard

Baylor: are they going to run the table this season?

Does Baylor run the table this year?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 27.0%
  • No

    Votes: 27 73.0%

  • Total voters
    37
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alexrgct

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It's still very early in the season, but one thing seems crystal clear at this point: Baylor is MUCH further along in its development than anyone else. This shouldn't be especially surprising; UConn is dealing with significant transition, Tennessee is trying to integrate a freshman PG, A&M lost the two most important players from its championship team, Stanford is young and trying to figure things out, etc. In fact, the only other team that had as much continuity from last season is Notre Dame, and the makeup of ND's team is not especially favorable to beating Baylor, especially in Waco.

The reality is that, as of this moment, I see this as something of a down year for WBB. Can Baylor take advantage and be a juggernaut?

If you look at the undefeated teams of semi-recent memory (UConn '95, '02, '09-10, Tennessee '98), what stands out is the sheer amount of greatness at the top. UConn 1995 had the NPOY, two future NPOY, and a player in Nykesha Sales who was probably more gifted than any of those three. Tennessee 1998 was coming off an improbable championship run, had the NPOY, and a number of other very talented players around Holdsclaw including another all-time great in Catchings. In 2002, UConn had the NPOY, a future NPOY, and three other players who went in the top 6 of the WNBA draft. And in 2009 and 2010, UConn had an unbeatable pair of aces PLUS Renee Montgomery in 2009. So, the first question is does Baylor have players of that class? Griner certainly is, but is Sims as a sophomore at the level of the #2 players on the five recent undefeated teams? And what of the supporting cast beyond Griner and Sims?

The second question is whether Baylor needs players of that class just because undefeated teams have historically had them. My answer is...yes. There are days where you will not play close to the best of your ability, and there are days where your opponent will play above their heads. In order to win those games anyway, you must be so much better than everyone else that you can make up for the inevitable variability in performance. Baylor's A game is better than anyone's, but their B game is not better than everyone's A game. Over the course of 39 games, that might cost them.

What does this mean? If Baylor wants to win the championship, they are more than poised to do so. If they want to go down as an historically great champion, Odyssey Sims's emergence as a super-duper-star becomes one of the more compelling stories of the 2011-12 WCBB season.
 

speedoo

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You seem to have forgotten that Baylor lost a very good player: Melissa Jones. It's too early to tell how much they will miss her.
 

alexrgct

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You seem to have forgotten that Baylor lost a very good player: Melissa Jones. It's too early to tell how much they will miss her.
Have not forgotten that at all. Still, relative to losing Maya Moore, or the Adams/Colson combo, or the Poehlen/Peterson combo, it's not in the same ballpark.
 

speedoo

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Have not forgotten that at all. Still, relative to losing Maya Moore, or the Adams/Colson combo, or the Poehlen/Peterson combo, it's not in the same ballpark.
That is not at all clear to me. I seem to recall that Baylor struggled quite a bit when Jones was sidelined with an injury last year, and Mulkey made it very clear how much they missed her.
 

Wbbfan1

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Baylor has a great chance to run the table. Looking at their schedule the toughest games will be the away game at Texas A&M and the Big 12 tourney. If the UConn game was at Storrs, I would feel more comfortable about UConn beating them, but I don't see it happening in Waco. However, anything can happen as Bria and KML could have huge games like they did against Stanford.
 
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That is not at all clear to me. I seem to recall that Baylor struggled quite a bit when Jones was sidelined with an injury last year, and Mulkey made it very clear how much they missed her.

You sure you're not thinking of 2 years ago? That year Jones missed a lot of games and Baylor lost several during that stretch.

Last year, Baylor lost only 2 regular season games so not sure when they 'struggled'.
 
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This is a toughie. Their second-to-last game is a road test at Texas A&M. The pressure of going undefeated + a tough road game could be a challenge.
 
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Baylor has a great chance to run the table. Looking at their schedule the toughest games will be the away game at Texas A&M and the Big 12 tourney. If the UConn game was at Storrs, I would feel more comfortable about UConn beating them, but I don't see it happening in Waco. However, anything can happen as Bria and KML could have huge games like they did against Stanford.

I agree. But I would also add that Stef, Heather and Kiah will have to be at their collective best to hold BG in check.

(IMHO, Stef starts and works BG as hard as she can for the first 7 minutes. Heather comes off the bench and continues to work BG as hard as she can, for 7 minutes. Kiah replaces Heather and works BG as hard as she can, for the remainder of the first half. In the second half that pattern could be repeated or changed to suit the circumstances on the court. BTW, I would put in my most effective players when BG is on the bench.)

Also, if Tiff is on her game and we get some scoring support from CD and KF, then we have an excellent chance of beating them in their house.

But, none of the above works if we get off to a slow start.

Peace,

John Fryer
 

alexrgct

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That is not at all clear to me. I seem to recall that Baylor struggled quite a bit when Jones was sidelined with an injury last year, and Mulkey made it very clear how much they missed her.
I'm not saying she won't be missed, but I can't compare her moving on with losing one of the greatest players in WCBB history (Maya Moore), or your best player (Adams) AND the emotional leader of your team (Colson), or two top 10 draft picks (Pohlen/Peterson). MJ was a leader and a tough player who had a ton of heart, but I can't put her loss up there with those kinds of departures.
 

EricLA

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I'm not saying she won't be missed, but I can't compare her moving on with losing one of the greatest players in WCBB history (Maya Moore), or your best player (Adams) AND the emotional leader of your team (Colson), or two top 10 draft picks (Pohlen/Peterson). MJ was a leader and a tough player who had a ton of heart, but I can't put her loss up there with those kinds of departures.
i agree with you on that account. Jones was a glue player. and a starter. but not a star, nor "the" star. that belongs to Griner and Simms. IMHO it would be a bit like UCONN losing "only" Kelly Faris. certainly she does a lot of great things, but individually she's easier to replace than Moore/Dixon, Adams/Colson, Pohlen/Pedersen. this is not, of course, meant to take anything away from Jones who was terrific for them.
 
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Nice thread. The OP is spot on correct to indicate how well poised Baylor is to run the table this year. Winning big games with their B game is essential. Baylor still has not addressed the issue of having great shooters around Ms Griner. Their defense, though is good enough to keep them in games when they do not have it all together.
 
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This is a toughie. Their second-to-last game is a road test at Texas A&M. The pressure of going undefeated + a tough road game could be a challenge.

I think Kelsey Bone has as good a chance as anyone to give Griner a one-on-one physical challenge. Also, there is a good chance they will meet in the Big 12 tournament, so Baylor would have to beat A&M twice to run the table. I think Baylor will lose one of those two games.
 
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It is very hard for a team to run the table. Baylor's chances will increase if they win today at Tennessee, but they still have to beat some pretty good teams in the regular season as well as the NCAA Tournament.
 
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Geno has somewhat of an advantage in knowings BG's strengths and weakness from coaching her this summer. I would not doubt though that like most games he will concede that BG will get her points and focus on the rest of the Baylor team. If she can't get the ball she can't score, our guards will be key in this game.
 

Icebear

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Geno has somewhat of an advantage in knowings BG's strengths and weakness from coaching her this summer. I would not doubt though that like most games he will concede that BG will get her points and focus on the rest of the Baylor team. If she can't get the ball she can't score, our guards will be key in this game.
Plus there are the two fatal flaws he installed in her game. Bwah-a-a-a-a-a-a.
 
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It's still very early in the season, but one thing seems crystal clear at this point: Baylor is MUCH further along in its development than anyone else. This shouldn't be especially surprising; UConn is dealing with significant transition, Tennessee is trying to integrate a freshman PG, A&M lost the two most important players from its championship team, Stanford is young and trying to figure things out, etc. In fact, the only other team that had as much continuity from last season is Notre Dame, and the makeup of ND's team is not especially favorable to beating Baylor, especially in Waco.

The reality is that, as of this moment, I see this as something of a down year for WBB. Can Baylor take advantage and be a juggernaut?

If you look at the undefeated teams of semi-recent memory (UConn '95, '02, '09-10, Tennessee '98), what stands out is the sheer amount of greatness at the top. UConn 1995 had the NPOY, two future NPOY, and a player in Nykesha Sales who was probably more gifted than any of those three. Tennessee 1998 was coming off an improbable championship run, had the NPOY, and a number of other very talented players around Holdsclaw including another all-time great in Catchings. In 2002, UConn had the NPOY, a future NPOY, and three other players who went in the top 6 of the WNBA draft. And in 2009 and 2010, UConn had an unbeatable pair of aces PLUS Renee Montgomery in 2009. So, the first question is does Baylor have players of that class? Griner certainly is, but is Sims as a sophomore at the level of the #2 players on the five recent undefeated teams? And what of the supporting cast beyond Griner and Sims?

The second question is whether Baylor needs players of that class just because undefeated teams have historically had them. My answer is...yes. There are days where you will not play close to the best of your ability, and there are days where your opponent will play above their heads. In order to win those games anyway, you must be so much better than everyone else that you can make up for the inevitable variability in performance. Baylor's A game is better than anyone's, but their B game is not better than everyone's A game. Over the course of 39 games, that might cost them.

What does this mean? If Baylor wants to win the championship, they are more than poised to do so. If they want to go down as an historically great champion, Odyssey Sims's emergence as a super-duper-star becomes one of the more compelling stories of the 2011-12 WCBB season.
I have to ist tell you this is an excellently written post!! 39 games is and has been a long season! I go back earlier to when seasons were less than 39. So many things can happen during a season. Baylor is good and definitely deserves to be #1 and considered the favorite. Having said that,it is long way to go for a Championship let alone going undefeated. Look at the teams you mentioned who went undefeated. These were much more talented/deeper teams. Griner is a new,to the womens game, a freak of nature,but even with Sims,they not only can be beaten on a given night,but come tournament time they are not a shoow in for a Championship.
Excellent post
 

speedoo

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I'm not saying she won't be missed, but I can't compare her moving on with losing one of the greatest players in WCBB history (Maya Moore), or your best player (Adams) AND the emotional leader of your team (Colson), or two top 10 draft picks (Pohlen/Peterson). MJ was a leader and a tough player who had a ton of heart, but I can't put her loss up there with those kinds of departures.
What we saw in the 1st half today vs. the LV's was an example of how Baylor misses Melissa Jones. Stricklen had I think 19 points and was singlehandedly keeping TN in the game. I think Melissa Jones was enough of a leader to take it upon herself to guard Stricklen and shut her down without even getting any direction from the coaches, and the game would have been over much sooner. Baylor probably has 3 or 4 players capable of guarding Stricklen well, but none of them have Jones' leadership characteristics, so they needed a halftime talk from the coaches.
 

Icebear

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Jones was the force of will and the enforcer on the team. I do not mean the negatively at all but she was the player willing to get into the face of her team and opponents.
 

UConnCat

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Melissa Jones was a darn good rebounder for her size. Baylor could have used her effort on the defensive boards in the 1st half.
 

Icebear

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Melissa Jones was a darn good rebounder for her size. Baylor could have used her effort on the defensive boards in the 1st half.
Yep, it was all part of her attitude and persona.
 

MilfordHusky

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No team other than UConn has done it in the past dozen years. I don't think Baylor will. It's just too tough. I look for a couple of hiccups along the way for them. Plus, I don't think they can beat us twice.
 

ladybears4eva

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That is not at all clear to me. I seem to recall that Baylor struggled quite a bit when Jones was sidelined with an injury last year, and Mulkey made it very clear how much they missed her.
we struggled because we had freshman starting that year and lost jones to injury for most of the year, but managed to make the final four with jones and a young team.
 

ladybears4eva

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I'm not saying she won't be missed, but I can't compare her moving on with losing one of the greatest players in WCBB history (Maya Moore), or your best player (Adams) AND the emotional leader of your team (Colson), or two top 10 draft picks (Pohlen/Peterson). MJ was a leader and a tough player who had a ton of heart, but I can't put her loss up there with those kinds of departures.

generally speaking she was an emotional leader, and all-around player (MJONEs), but she isn't playing in the WNBA like all the other players your mentioned.
 
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