alexrgct
RIP, Alex
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
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It's still very early in the season, but one thing seems crystal clear at this point: Baylor is MUCH further along in its development than anyone else. This shouldn't be especially surprising; UConn is dealing with significant transition, Tennessee is trying to integrate a freshman PG, A&M lost the two most important players from its championship team, Stanford is young and trying to figure things out, etc. In fact, the only other team that had as much continuity from last season is Notre Dame, and the makeup of ND's team is not especially favorable to beating Baylor, especially in Waco.
The reality is that, as of this moment, I see this as something of a down year for WBB. Can Baylor take advantage and be a juggernaut?
If you look at the undefeated teams of semi-recent memory (UConn '95, '02, '09-10, Tennessee '98), what stands out is the sheer amount of greatness at the top. UConn 1995 had the NPOY, two future NPOY, and a player in Nykesha Sales who was probably more gifted than any of those three. Tennessee 1998 was coming off an improbable championship run, had the NPOY, and a number of other very talented players around Holdsclaw including another all-time great in Catchings. In 2002, UConn had the NPOY, a future NPOY, and three other players who went in the top 6 of the WNBA draft. And in 2009 and 2010, UConn had an unbeatable pair of aces PLUS Renee Montgomery in 2009. So, the first question is does Baylor have players of that class? Griner certainly is, but is Sims as a sophomore at the level of the #2 players on the five recent undefeated teams? And what of the supporting cast beyond Griner and Sims?
The second question is whether Baylor needs players of that class just because undefeated teams have historically had them. My answer is...yes. There are days where you will not play close to the best of your ability, and there are days where your opponent will play above their heads. In order to win those games anyway, you must be so much better than everyone else that you can make up for the inevitable variability in performance. Baylor's A game is better than anyone's, but their B game is not better than everyone's A game. Over the course of 39 games, that might cost them.
What does this mean? If Baylor wants to win the championship, they are more than poised to do so. If they want to go down as an historically great champion, Odyssey Sims's emergence as a super-duper-star becomes one of the more compelling stories of the 2011-12 WCBB season.
The reality is that, as of this moment, I see this as something of a down year for WBB. Can Baylor take advantage and be a juggernaut?
If you look at the undefeated teams of semi-recent memory (UConn '95, '02, '09-10, Tennessee '98), what stands out is the sheer amount of greatness at the top. UConn 1995 had the NPOY, two future NPOY, and a player in Nykesha Sales who was probably more gifted than any of those three. Tennessee 1998 was coming off an improbable championship run, had the NPOY, and a number of other very talented players around Holdsclaw including another all-time great in Catchings. In 2002, UConn had the NPOY, a future NPOY, and three other players who went in the top 6 of the WNBA draft. And in 2009 and 2010, UConn had an unbeatable pair of aces PLUS Renee Montgomery in 2009. So, the first question is does Baylor have players of that class? Griner certainly is, but is Sims as a sophomore at the level of the #2 players on the five recent undefeated teams? And what of the supporting cast beyond Griner and Sims?
The second question is whether Baylor needs players of that class just because undefeated teams have historically had them. My answer is...yes. There are days where you will not play close to the best of your ability, and there are days where your opponent will play above their heads. In order to win those games anyway, you must be so much better than everyone else that you can make up for the inevitable variability in performance. Baylor's A game is better than anyone's, but their B game is not better than everyone's A game. Over the course of 39 games, that might cost them.
What does this mean? If Baylor wants to win the championship, they are more than poised to do so. If they want to go down as an historically great champion, Odyssey Sims's emergence as a super-duper-star becomes one of the more compelling stories of the 2011-12 WCBB season.
