As NCAA announces a framework for season, big nonconference play question remains for UConn women’s basketball

[Carnac]

By ALEXA PHILIPPOU Sept 18, 2020

There’s over nine weeks until Nov. 25 is upon us. A lot can change between now and then, and so many important features of this season remain to be determined. Here’s what we know, and don’t know, for how that’ll all shape up.

The Huskies were scheduled to travel to Notre Dame, Virginia, Tennessee and Baylor. With exhibitions not allowed prior to the Nov. 25 start date, their preseason matchup against Fort Hays State is not looking likely.

As NCAA announces a framework for season, big nonconference play question remains for UConn women’s basketball

The NCAA took a meaningful step Wednesday in announcing a framework for the 2020-21 college basketball season, including a Nov. 25 start date and stipulating how many games each school must play. B…

www.courant.com

 

[eebmg]

If we cant get at least a few non-conference games against top 10 schools. we will be at a big disadvantage against top programs in the strongest conferences. Hoping we can find some bubble solutions.

 

[Dwilliams02]

I think Tennessee and Baylor will most likely be locks. South Carolina too. I say in a season like this. Those would be decent enough to get by. I really would not punish teams this year for their schedules

 

[Plebe]

The first games to be dropped should be Virginia, Little Rock and Dayton.

 

[Alydar]

If we cant get at least a few non-conference games against top 10 schools. we will be at a big disadvantage against top programs in the strongest conferences. Hoping we can find some bubble solutions.

We won't be alone. The "strongest" conferences may be stronger than the BE but not as much as some seem to think. Where is Baylor's in-conference elite opponents? Or S Carolina's. They got Miss St maybe but where are the top 10 programs? The B1G? They looked better last year but their strength was in teams ranked 15-25. The PAC12 is the only conference that had elite depth last season and may not be as strong this season.

Here are the top 10 from the last AP poll. And here is the conference breakdown:

1 South Carolina
2 Oregon
3 Baylor
4 Maryland
5 UConn
6 Louisville
7 Stanford
8 NCSt
9 Mississippi State
10 UCLA

PAC12 - 3
ACC - 2
SEC - 2
B1G - 1
B12 - 1
BE - 1

It may be that either or both Oregon & UCLA drop from the top 10 then no conference will have more than 2 top 10 teams.

A few non-conference bubble tournaments would greatly aid the committee.

 

[Lorcan]

I’d say Stanford, UCLA, and Arizona are all Top 10 from the PAC this year. So, drop Oregon but add a feisty Arizona.

 

[jonson]

I’d say Stanford, UCLA, and Arizona are all Top 10 from the PAC this year. So, drop Oregon but add a feisty Arizona.

This seems right to me, although I'm not completely convinced about UCLA. Both Arizona and Stanford, on the other hand, seem to me the real deal. I'd add that I think Oregon is a wildcard in all of this. The team (on paper) may have more talent than ever before, and, if the younger Sabally and Prince are as good as the staff has said and there's some help from the five highly rated incoming freshmen, then it will be a really tough out by season's end, if not before.

 

[Figurehead]

This seems right to me, although I'm not completely convinced about UCLA. Both Arizona and Stanford, on the other hand, seem to me the real deal. I'd add that I think Oregon is a wildcard in all of this. The team (on paper) may have more talent than ever before, and, if the younger Sabally and Prince are as good as the staff has said and there's some help from the five highly rated incoming freshmen, then it will be a really tough out by season's end, if not before.

Young but very talented is the theme this year.

 

[Steelerone]

I think that the Big East is recognized as one of the best conferences outside of the Power Five. While there is a larger drop-off in football, there are several conferences like the Big East, Mid-Atlantic, Mid American and Sun Belt that are more than capable of competing with most of the teams in the Power 5 in basketball.

 

[stamfordhusky]

I think that the Big East is recognized as one of the best conferences outside of the Power Five. While there is a larger drop-off in football, there are several conferences like the Big East, Mid-Atlantic, Mid American and Sun Belt that are more than capable of competing with most of the teams in the Power 5 in basketball.

Mid American is pretty good, but the Sun Belt is not good at all. There is no “Mid-Atlantic”, so I can’t comment. The Metro-Atlantic (MAAC) is terrible however.

 

[Alydar]

I think that the Big East is recognized as one of the best conferences outside of the Power Five. While there is a larger drop-off in football, there are several conferences like the Big East, Mid-Atlantic, Mid American and Sun Belt that are more than capable of competing with most of the teams in the Power 5 in basketball.

Right. Take Baylor out of the B12 last season and you have a mid-major conference. Baylor was their only top 25 (AP) team. Where the P-5 have it over, say, the BE, is that they dominate the 30-60 rankings while the BE mid-pack is at 60-100. Now the ACC and the PAC12 have several elite teams each but many of them only play the other elites in their conference once. This year there is an opportunity for a couple of non-conference tournaments in bubble conditions. With the economics of college athletics being what it is maybe the media can dangle some $$$ and get the top fifteen facing each other in a couple of bubbles.

 

[TerpWomenFan]

I think when the NCAA look to seed teams, they look at the Top 50, not the top 10. Maryland really benefitted from this because there were plenty of top 50 teams in the Big 10 even though they were the only team in the top 10. In this scenario, the Big East do not help UConn.

 

[Alydar]

I think when the NCAA look to seed teams, they look at the Top 50, not the top 10. Maryland really benefitted from this because there were plenty of top 50 teams in the Big 10 even though they were the only team in the top 10. In this scenario, the Big East do not help UConn.

My problem with top 50 is that it counts wins against #45-50 as equal to wins against 1-5. That works a lot better in the mens game but the drop off from No 10 to No 50 in wcbb is huge.

Team A plays and beats Nos 45-50 so they have 6 tier 1 wins
Team B plays nos 1 & 2 and loses by 1 in OT in both games. They also beat nos 3, 4, 5 & lose to 6. So they have a 3-3 record against tier 1 teams. I'll wager right now that the fans of team A will keep harping on the better record vs tier 1 teams and that the committee will have no problem using the same irrational argument when Team A gets a better seed. Who this benefits are the elite teams in the P-5 conferences who get wins against a bunch of mediocrities in their conferences ranked 30-50 but who nonetheless get listed as being equal to true elite teams.

Actual Tier 1 teams in wcbb number around 7 or 8 in almost any year IMO.

Edit: There is a tier 1A of about 25-30 other teams. And among that group their record against tier 1 teams is a great comparative stat. But when someone tries to use "our team's better tier 1 record" as an argument for a 1 seed I want to scream.

 

[Plebe]

My problem with top 50 is that it counts wins against #45-50 as equal to wins against 1-5. That works a lot better in the mens game but the drop off from No 10 to No 50 in wcbb is huge.

Team A plays and beats Nos 45-50 so they have 6 tier 1 wins
Team B plays nos 1 & 2 and loses by 1 in OT in both games. They also beat nos 3, 4, 5 & lose to 6. So they have a 3-3 record against tier 1 teams. I'll wager right now that the fans of team A will keep harping on the better record vs tier 1 teams and that the committee will have no problem using the same irrational argument when Team A gets a better seed. Who this benefits are the elite teams in the P-5 conferences who get wins against a bunch of mediocrities in their conferences ranked 30-50 but who nonetheless get listed as being equal to true elite teams.

Actual Tier 1 teams in wcbb number around 7 or 8 in almost any year IMO.

Edit: There is a tier 1A of about 25-30 other teams. And among that group their record against tier 1 teams is a great comparative stat. But when someone tries to use "our team's better tier 1 record" as an argument for a 1 seed I want to scream.

It doesn't have to be all or nothing. Just because T50 wins are used as a metric (one among others) doesn't mean that a win over #1 of no more overall value than a win over #50. It's possible to hold multiple thoughts in the head at one time. Hence, Indiana's win over South Carolina was more valuable to its resume than its win over, say, Purdue.

 

[Alydar]

It doesn't have to be all or nothing. Just because T50 wins are used as a metric (one among others) doesn't mean that a win over #1 of no more overall value than a win over #50. It's possible to hold multiple thoughts in the head at one time. Hence, Indiana's win over South Carolina was more valuable to its resume than its win over, say, Purdue.

I agree but the new seeding system is a copy from the mens side and a big part is tier 1 wins. There is no consideration of the relative quality of those wins, simply that they are tier 1.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

I think when the NCAA look to seed teams, they look at the Top 50, not the top 10. Maryland really benefitted from this because there were plenty of top 50 teams in the Big 10 even though they were the only team in the top 10. In this scenario, the Big East do not help UConn.

There should be different weightings applied to top ten match-ups, 11-30, and 31-50. That would put pressure on scheduling the best teams early in the season for out of conference match-ups.

I would also like to see a Christmas to New Years "bubble" tournament with the top sixteen teams in a double elimination - like the super-regionals and college world series combined in NCAA baseball. This might be the only time it would happen (a possible blessing for CoViD-19?!?) and if it is successful, might be a mainstay in sorting out the top tier teams in the field before conference action occurs.....

The next year, a "play in" tournament could be held on the Thanksgiving weekend for the 13 - 20th ranked teams to play for the last 4 spots in the Christmas to New Years top sixteen tournament. Should any team decline to attend, the next best available team could replace them. This series of tournaments would provide early season evidence for Jeff Sagarin's statistical analysis program [more data leads to better analysis] to aid the NCAA in proper placement of teams into the brackets.

It might be a good time for "the one who is not to be mentioned" to announce her joining the UCONN program when the match-ups are announced for the "bubble" tournament as well.....

 

[TerpWomenFan]

That will not work because the sponsors in Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Las Vegas, Orlando, Daytona and the other holiday tournaments will start a mutiny. A big recruiting tool are the places they get to go to Thanksgiving holiday. In December, the student athletes are studying hard for exams so I don't think many schools want to schedule hard teams during this period. At the end of December conference scheduling starts. I would like to see an eight team tournament with top teams from the top 8 conferences if the logistics can work.