Are we underestimating the Big East?

[UConnTrumbull]

Now that the calendar changes to conference play my attitude on the matter changes dramatically. One week ago I would’ve been saying “3 losses at the most.” Today, my opinion remains the same but with heavier reservations.

For instance, tonight has been penciled in as a win by the oddsmakers (UConn -14.5 or so) but Butler always plays us tough despite never beating us.

Seton Hall is a 2 point loss vs USC out at Maui away from being undefeated.

Providence has some pieces.

Omaha is still Omaha.

Johnnies will be competitive throughout.

We ALWAYS struggle on opening day. Even last year we had to sweat out an OT game in Hartford vs Xavier and Sean Miller.

Tell me I’m just overreacting…

Go Huskies!

 

[navery12]

I don't think you're overreacting. I think anyone expecting us to just cakewalk our way to an 18-2 season is in for a rude awakening. Not saying we won't win the conference but I think some people forget how tough any conference game is

 

[Lafayette]

Big East play always presents issues woth fouling, turnovers, bad shooting nights.

While we might lose only 2 there will be battles and we are thankful Coach Hurley and co are captaining this ship!

 

[FightOnCT]

That line is way too large, we struggle to pull away from opponents and Butler is solid, better than Texas honestly

Even in 2024, conference play wasn’t smooth sailing with close games against Nova on the road and St. John’s and Providence at home.

 

[MexicoHusky]

We are good but not 2024 good. I assume most agree. We dont have the most physically dominating center and guard like we did in 2024. I would expect some struggles on the road.

 

[king conn]

We need to continue to be battle tested, or you end up like Duke or Gonzaga falling short of the final goal

I would welcome as many challenges as possible. Seems weird to say I hope for a few losses, but just not Providence please. But I suppose they have as good a chance as any.

 

[Kitaman]

Every year every BE team looks on the schedule and circle UConn game. They play us as good as AZ, Texas or any other OOC school.

Out of conference games the opposing team preps (short timing) for us. BE conference games teams prepare for. We are well scouted, familiar and certainly hated by our conference foes. Also beating us means your chances of the post season improves dramatically.

We can long for a better conference, but until we leave ours, we have to credit the BE for at least 5 of our Championships. They prepare us so well for the post season, we become happy to get to April to get away from those pesty and irritating teams.

Lastly the BE has been known to humble UConn including some of our great teams. Its not like we've been constantly undefeated.

All I'm saying is that the BE is exciting basketball even with underperforming (i.e. bad teams). Until we roll over the conference consistently we will continue to be strengthened and set up for March playing in our conference.

We are Championship torch carriers for the league, and I'm okay with that.

 

[superjohn]

Now that the calendar changes to conference play my attitude on the matter changes dramatically. One week ago I would’ve been saying “3 losses at the most.” Today, my opinion remains the same but with heavier reservations.

For instance, tonight has been penciled in as a win by the oddsmakers (UConn -14.5 or so) but Butler always plays us tough despite never beating us.

Seton Hall is a 2 point loss vs USC out at Maui away from being undefeated.

Providence has some pieces.

Omaha is still Omaha.

Johnnies will be competitive throughout.

We ALWAYS struggle on opening day. Even last year we had to sweat out an OT game in Hartford vs Xavier and Sean Miller.

Tell me I’m just overreacting…

Go Huskies!

For some reason I thought our game against Butler tonight is at Hinkle and I was going to say we'll most likely be sweating it out. I feel very good about it at home as I will for all our home games. Honestly, we should go undefeated in the Big East at home but at least a handful of road games will be very tough and I fully expect to lose a few of them.

 

[Gurleyman]

In some ways it’s the worst case scenario - a lot of the teams are talented enough to push us, but not good enough to help our resume. There won’t be much potential for good wins, but there will be plausible threats of bad losses.

 

[REB1094]

The BE this year is #5 in the basketball P5. Even within the top 5 it’s tiered, I’d say the SEC/B12/B10 are in one tier and the ACC/BE are in the other. Maybe BE is #4 if you look top to bottom, but ACC’s top is really good with Duke/Louisville/UNC

The conference needed St John’s to be elite (they are really good), Creighton to be good (they are bad), and Marquette to be decent (they are horrible)

But it’s still a good conference with good teams. UConn obviously is dominant. St John’s should get better as their mercenary roster gels more. Seton Hall/Butler are better than expected and have real tournament aspirations. I’d bet Creighton figures it out eventually and is good in the back half of conference play

Based on what we know today I actually don’t think 17-3 is an unreasonable expectation. UConn shouldn’t lose more than 3-4 games, but as 2023 showed us it can be a wildddd ride

 

[CL82]

We can long for a better conference, but until we leave ours, we have to credit the BE for at least 5 of our Championships

 

[Icehawk]

Expect the first conference game and Seton Hall at home to be tough games based on history, also don’t freak out if we lose them because history is on our side.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

In some ways it’s the worst case scenario - a lot of the teams are talented enough to push us, but not good enough to help our resume. There won’t be much potential for good wins, but there will be plausible threats of bad losses.

I think that’s the biggest issue. Not going to be celebrating the wins but will be dreading the losses.

 

[Travelman6]

Hurley seems to have a block @Shall. I think he losses that. Probably 1-1 vs St John's and a loss at either nova or butler. Plus one other wtf loss and/or home loss. 16-4 seems likely, maybe even 15-5.

 

[Stasher599]

I think we split with St. John’s and lose one other league game on a bad shooting night. I think 18-2 is definitely doable as Mullins and Reed continue to get better and are more integrated into the offense.
This current group of players are still trying to define their roles on the team and will continue to get more comfortable with the offense. Our defensive efforts have been pretty impressive especially with how bad we defended last year.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

In some ways it’s the worst case scenario - a lot of the teams are talented enough to push us, but not good enough to help our resume. There won’t be much potential for good wins, but there will be plausible threats of bad losses.

I expect this dynamic to play out most dramatically within this forum. The Game Chat I simply avoid.

As with every year, one game at a time.

 

[CTBasketball]

We won’t win in Newark I’ll tell you that.

 

[Palatine]

This is where the BE every year. No one has the right to expect more.

 

[Gurleyman]

This is where the BE every year. No one has the right to expect more.

Creighton, Marquette, Nova, PC and Xavier have all taken turns sliding backwards and haven’t bounced back.

St. John’s has gotten better. But that’s not enough to fill that void.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I don't think you're overreacting. I think anyone expecting us to just cakewalk our way to an 18-2 season is in for a rude awakening. Not saying we won't win the conference but I think some people forget how tough any conference game is

Great point. I think there is a difference between hard games and games that earn quad 1 value because of the tourney assessment system.

Florida, Kansas and BYU will most likely be quad 1 games at the end of the season but I will argue that for the growth of the team, St. John's 'away' may be a tougher game for us. A lot of these games will challenge us just as much as the non cons.

The big east has clearly toughened us up for March the past few years. Just that Crieghton in Omaha doesnt have the same ring as Kansas in Lawrence doesn't mean it doesn't sharpen the blade just as much if not more. If BE play weakened us how did we steamroll P4s in our two runs?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The BE this year is #5 in the basketball P5. Even within the top 5 it’s tiered, I’d say the SEC/B12/B10 are in one tier and the ACC/BE are in the other. Maybe BE is #4 if you look top to bottom, but ACC’s top is really good with Duke/Louisville/UNC

The conference needed St John’s to be elite (they are really good), Creighton to be good (they are bad), and Marquette to be decent (they are horrible)

But it’s still a good conference with good teams. UConn obviously is dominant. St John’s should get better as their mercenary roster gels more. Seton Hall/Butler are better than expected and have real tournament aspirations. I’d bet Creighton figures it out eventually and is good in the back half of conference play

Based on what we know today I actually don’t think 17-3 is an unreasonable expectation. UConn shouldn’t lose more than 3-4 games, but as 2023 showed us it can be a wildddd ride

The Big East is #5, but it is not that far back from #4, and close counts in computer rankings.

The Big 12 buries bad teams in blowouts, which helps its computer rankings early in the season, but as those teams get into their own conference schedule, their SOS falls off a cliff, pulling the Big 12 down a bit. The SEC is not at good as last year, and the Big 10 is above average, and nothing more, as usual.

Creighton and Marquette being terrible hurts, and Seton Hall is good, but did not replace the two teams that declined. Georgetown and Providence spent bigger in the offseason, and both have disappointed.

The Big East is a handful of baskets from a much better conference perception, so I am not expecting a walk, but UConn is quite a bit better than almost all the Big East teams, and the gap is big enough that an upset is going to be difficult for the lower team.

 

[freshler40]

I don't think you're overreacting. I think anyone expecting us to just cakewalk our way to an 18-2 season is in for a rude awakening. Not saying we won't win the conference but I think some people forget how tough any conference game is

When you play a team twice in conference play, they can know and adjust well and have the home court advantage as well. These teams also have inside info on players they have seen in past years.

 

[HooperScooper]

That line is way too large, we struggle to pull away from opponents and Butler is solid, better than Texas honestly

And I still have PTSD over that Butler home game last year in Hartford. This year's UConn team is better. But so is Butler. I could do without that stress tonight but I'm preparing for it.

 

[Hoophound]

With our OCC schedule and only one loss with two starters out, I'm not too worried about an extra couple losses in the Big East. The committee will be able to see our body of work. Being a 2 or even 3/4 seed doesn't scare me anyway. Obviously, we want to avoid bad losses, but league play is a different animal and everyone around the country knows that. Honestly, if we can't put together a great Big East record, we don't deserve a 1 seed anyway.

 

[Scottzer]

We may be underestimating how bad the league is. Not saying we go undefeated or anything. Given I expect about 3 losses, I think a 1 seed over Duke might be hard to attain. 2 or 3 seed seems reasonably likely. We can be the team that scares the begeesus out of the 1 in our bracket.

I guess here’s a way to look at it - if this team plays as bad in conference as 2022-23 did for a stretch, how many losses would that mean this year? 4?