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[QUOTE="JustbrewitMan, post: 3397248, member: 7806"]
Unfortunately, that article that you linked to--while interesting--is not relevant to the situation that's being discussed.  It addressed TOs when down 2 pts (not 3pts).  He teases at posting a final article being about TOs when down 3pts, but I couldnt find where he actually published the post addressing that (and since the article you cited was from 2010, I assume he forgot to ever publish it, LOL teaser)

Interestingly, scanning that article and googling led me to a KenPom blog post where he did a larger sample-size analysis of results when up by three and you foul (or don't foul). Which was the decision Marshall & WSU had to make at the end there.  Essentially no significant (and no numerically meaningful) difference:

[URL unfurl="true"]https://kenpom.com/blog/yet-another-study-about-fouling-when-up-3/[/URL]

W    L   OT   Win%   Cases
Foul       122   5   11   92.0    138
Defend  598   2   76   93.5    676

A big factor in the "defend" strategy working better than potentially expected is that 3pt % goes down significantly for most shooters in this situation vs. overall 3pt %. KP states:

"In the 814 cases studied, teams made 98 out of 608 three-point shots (16.1%) during the possession in question. Basically, assume a player is about half as effective as normal in hitting threes when his team is down three facing a limited clock. He might even be worse since it’s possible these shots were skewed towards more effective shooters. "
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