Are my calculations right?

[HoopsFan21]

Hello fellow Boneyarders, I was thinking back to last season when KML was leaving and we were concerned about the drop off in offense and who would make up the difference. With that in mind, I went through the scores from this season and last for the first 18 games. I calculated that UConn is averaging 89.77778 points this season, and also averaged 89.77778 points through 18 games last season. Am I right or is this some screwy coincidence? Also, on the points allowed side, this season's average is 50.66667 while last year it was 51.22222. Maybe it's just me, but I am a bit flabbergasted that the offense is in exactly the same spot today as it was a year ago despite losing the best 3-point shooter in the history of the game.

 

[sarals24]

That's amazing if true. Adding KLS and Napheesa and Butler have made up for KML leaving.

 

[UcMiami]

I'll assume your calculations are correct, and they don't really surprise me at all. And I will also add that they have played a tougher schedule this year than last.
The reason that I am not surprised is that Uconn is 'only' replacing 19.4 points per game between KML (14.9) and Stokes (4.5) and that those points represented a total of 47 minutes of game time. This year we have 4 returning starters who are a year further along in their careers - more confident, more knowledgeable, and better - who could be expected to increase their offensive effectiveness. And as a group they have with only Kia scoring fewer points per game than last year (10.2 v 9.7) - Morgan by herself has taken care of exactly that fall off (14.4 v 14.9) while Stewart is scoring 1.7 more and Jefferson is right at 1.0 more and their minutes per game are almost identical to last years averages when taking into account missed games. So the question becomes who has replaced those 47 minutes and how does their scoring compare to the missing 16.7 points:

Gabby has added 4 minutes and 1.6 points to her last years totals
Lou has added 20.4 minutes and 9.2 points
Napheesa added 20.0 and 7.0 points

That works out to 44.4 minutes and 17.8 points per game answering the question of offense.
(Butler and Chong with their missed games pretty well match up to a healthy Chong from last year, and Courtney, Lawlor, and Pulido also cancel out.)

Defensively - we certainly miss Stokes blocked shots and rebounding and KMLs positional defense and knowledge of the defensive system as well as her rebounding, but in terms of blocked shots, they are a lot of fun, but a fairly high number of them lead to either offensive rebounds or the ball going out of bounds to the offense. Whereas steals are definitive changes of possession. And our defensive speed and height in replacing KMLs minutes with a combination of Lou, Napheesa and Gabby has increased, leading to more steals.

Stats wise beyond points allowed and scored we are:
Down 1.1 blocks per game
Up 2.1 steals per game
Down 0.4 in rebounding margin
Up 0.9 assists per game
Identical in turnovers per game
Our shooting percentages are a little down this year compared to last year, but we are actually taking about 3 more shots per game and making almost 1 more free throw per game.

It should also be noted that with the number of blow outs even against decent teams, both scoring average and defensive points allowed is as much a product of the coaching and bench strength as it is of the competitive strength of the primary rotation. I would definitely give the advantage to this years team in terms of the strength of the full bench being deployed in blow-outs.

NB all of my stat comparisons are based on last years full year numbers and not on the first 18 games of last year - definitely not into crunching all those numbers! And it would make a difference in things like Moriah's scoring and shooting percentages as she came on very strong in the second half of the year after a relatively slow start.

 

[TroyHouse66]

See, it's like Geno says...
It's the Defense that creates the difference & wins the games

 

[Suebird10fan]

Your numbers are correct HF21. What makes it especially impressive is that we have only started tapping our potential in the last few games. Of course, UCM is right, it's largely a function of bench strength. It's nice to have an incredibly deep and talented bench!

 

[Kibitzer]

I remain in awe of the several Boneyard practitioners of wcbb analytics. I am among the many 'Yarders who are uncertain if this is an art or a science, but we are grateful that you do it for us. Thanks.

Permit me to focus on how this season's ream is different from last year's NC champs.

The initial challenge was easy to define but but the solution was not readily identifiable: Replace the losses of Kaleena and Kiah -- how and with whom?

Even as Kia, Mo, Stewie and Mogan picked up where they had left off (2015 NC), Lou and Nat (projected on the BY as replacements) got off to slow starts for different reasons. Next, about when these two ramped up their production, Murphy's Law kicked in and Morgan went down. But best of all, Gabby got in the left lane to emerge explosively and Napheesa is developing reliably.

Let's go back to the original challenge: replacement of Kiah and Kaleena. The team defensive effort has compensated for Kiah's defensive skills. Although Kaleena has not yet been replaced, Lou projects to be The One. Meanwhile, Stewie and Mo must continue firing away from long-range with help from Saniya, Kia(?) and Courtney(!).

While Morgan is out of action, we lose her steadfast leadership and reliable production but gain Gabby's high octane energy and more minutes for Nat and Napheesa.

Is the current team different. Of course. Still evolving, but possibly even better.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Nice post Kib. I continue to think this team has a chance to enter the conversation for best ever. Just based on the first eighteen games it's not in that mix. But Mo seems to have made her January transition from really, really good to totally dominant. Lou is now playing up to lofty expectations (regardless of her 1 for 7 from 3 yesterday). And the bench is ridiculously good; six through nine are probably among the top ten non-starters in WCBB, and Gabby, Nat and Napheesa are probably among the top five.

I can't wait for the rest of the season!

 

[UcMiami]

Kim - at least you didn't include a third possibility 'smoke and mirrors'!

 

[TroyHouse66]

-bird10
<<...it's largely a function of bench strength. It's nice to have an incredibly deep and talented bench!>>

Amen to that!
There have been numerous times in the last several years with only 7 healthy bodies on the bench where trepidation(s), (if not palpitations), set in.
In the back of our collective UConn memory, the double whammy of Shea & Svet hitting the crutches is always a haunting presence.
Hartford may no longer be considered the Insurance Capitol of the World, but the UConn bench could be the insurance capitol of the WBB world.

 

[UcMiami]

-bird10
<<...it's largely a function of bench strength. It's nice to have an incredibly deep and talented bench!>>

Amen to that!
There have been numerous times in the last several years with only 7 healthy bodies on the bench where trepidation(s), (if not palpitations), set in.
In the back of our collective UConn memory, the double whammy of Shea & Svet hitting the crutches is always a haunting presence.
Hartford may no longer be considered the Insurance Capitol of the World, but the UConn bench could be the insurance capitol of the WBB world.

Repeated in the year Greene and Thomas ended up bystanders.