AP Top 25 Week 16: same Top 5, Lady Vols drop out, Princeton back in | The Boneyard

AP Top 25 Week 16: same Top 5, Lady Vols drop out, Princeton back in

I've noticed many examples of movements by the AP that don't make a lot of sense. The decision to rank Tennessee below Princeton is near the top of the list.
 
Phil said:
I've noticed many examples of movements by the AP that don't make a lot of sense. The decision to rank Tennessee below Princeton is near the top of the list.
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Maybe because Tennessee is on a four game losing streak? Should that be rewarded by the human voters? They started conference play with a 6-0 record and since then they are 2-6.
They can finish the season with winning again (beating LSU and/or Vandy?) and then making some noise in the conference tourney and probably get back into the Top 25.
 
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There really aren't any rules for voting for the AP top 25, so it doesn't have to make sense. I'm sure some of the voters look at others' votes and say those votes don't make sense. It can be literally entirely the eye test, and I'll bet some of the voters haven't watched an entire game of some of the teams they vote for.

Recency bias lives in the polls. Tennessee is 2-7 in their last nine games.

(cross-posted with Centerstream)
 
Phil said:
I've noticed many examples of movements by the AP that don't make a lot of sense. The decision to rank Tennessee below Princeton is near the top of the list.
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Largest ORV group this week - Colorado 23, Fairfield 18, Tennessee 12, Columbia 10, Rhode Island 7, N Dakota St 7, Virginia 6, Villanova 6, Southern Cal 5, Rice 4, Iowa St. 3, Syracuse 2, Illinois 2, Notre Dame 1, Washington 1, NC State 1.

Not sure I agree with TN getting this many votes, based on my eye test. They've lost 7 of last 9 games, 6 to SEC foes, got beat badly by UConn, outscored 787 to 619.
 
BRS24 said:
Largest ORV group this week - Colorado 23, Fairfield 18, Tennessee 12, Columbia 10, Rhode Island 7, N Dakota St 7, Virginia 6, Villanova 6, Southern Cal 5, Rice 4, Iowa St. 3, Syracuse 2, Illinois 2, Notre Dame 1, Washington 1, NC State 1.

Not sure I agree with TN getting this many votes, based on my eye test. They've lost 7 of last 9 games, 6 to SEC foes, got beat badly by UConn, outscored 787 to 619.
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They already have fewer votes than Fairfield and you think they should have fewer. That either means you think that Fairfield would be favored in a game against Tennessee or you think there's something horribly wrong with the Fairfield voting.
 
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Tennessee just got beat (at home) by Texas A&M, lead by a couple of former All-MAAC players. Fairfield has a whole roster of them. I would assume Fairfield would be significant favorites vs. the Aggies.

Tennessee should be better than both, but basketball is about winning games in the season that actually happens. Underachieving isn't going to be viewed the same way by AP voters as it might by some statistical equation. Tennessee still has a NET of #22.
 
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typhaon said:
Tennessee just got beat (at home) by Texas A&M, lead by a couple of former All-MAAC players. Fairfield has a whole roster of them. I would assume Fairfield would be significant favorites vs. the Aggies.

Tennessee should be better than both, but basketball is about winning games in the season that actually happens. Underachieving isn't going to be viewed the same way by AP voters as it might by some statistical equation. Tennessee still has a #NET of 22.
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That wouldn't surprise me but I was asking who would be favored between Tennessee and Fairfield. My guess is Tennessee would be favored by about 15.
 
Phil said:
They already have fewer votes than Fairfield and you think they should have fewer. That either means you think that Fairfield would be favored in a game against Tennessee or you think there's something horribly wrong with the Fairfield voting.
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Not exactly. I tend to take ORV votes with a grain of salt. However ...

The mid-major teams (gosh I hate that moniker) like Fairfield get punished for not winning by a lot or losing by a little, and yet, TN and other teams get propped up, and when they start racking up losses, they aren't penalized as quickly.

In 2023-24, UConn lost to some ranked teams early in the season, and got pushed from 2 to 8, then 6 to 11, 11-17, -5 and -6. TN over the last few weeks has gone 15, 19, 22, 21, UR, which is a max net of -4.
 
The last time anyone other than UConn received a 1st place vote was on January 5, the first poll of the new year, when TX had 4 of the 32 1st place votes. The Longhorns lost later that week and UConn has earned all 32 1st place votes ever since.
 
"Vols drop out"


happy-dance-gif.gif
 
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BRS24 said:
Not exactly. I tend to take ORV votes with a grain of salt. However ...

The mid-major teams (gosh I hate that moniker) like Fairfield get punished for not winning by a lot or losing by a little, and yet, TN and other teams get propped up, and when they start racking up losses, they aren't penalized as quickly.

In 2023-24, UConn lost to some ranked teams early in the season, and got pushed from 2 to 8, then 6 to 11, 11-17, -5 and -6. TN over the last few weeks has gone 15, 19, 22, 21, UR, which is a max net of -4.
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The comparison to 2023-24 UCONN is apples and oranges:

-Early season rankings are typically more volatile as losses drop you further in the rankings early on. When UCONN was #17, they were 4-3 and their best win at that point was over an unranked Maryland team.

-If you're ranked higher and go on a losing skid, you have further to fall. UCONN was preseason #2 and lost 3 games in the first month of the season. Most teams ranked in the top 10-15 aren't losing more than 1 game early in the season.

-Comparatively, Tennessee was ranked 15th and dropped over a 4 week period late in the season when most teams in the 15-25 range are dropping numerous games like Tennessee did. Looking at teams ranked in the 15-25 range, you have:
-#15 Michigan State has lost 4 of their last 7
-#16 Kentucky has lost 6 of their last 9
-#18 Baylor has last 3 of their last 7
-#19 Ole Miss has lost 4 of their last 6
-#20 Texas Tech has lost 5 of their last 10
-#23 Georgia has lost 6 of their last 11
-#24 Alabama has lost 4 of their last 6
-#25 Princeton has lost 2 of their last 6 (both to unranked teams)

It's not like there are a slew of teams in that rankings range winning a lot of games and proving they should be ranked highly.

-Prior to A&M this week, Tennessee wasn't losing to bad teams. 3 of their 4 losses were to #1 UCONN, #3 South Carolina, and #4 Texas. The 4th loss was to Mississippi State who is a projected tournament team. Tennessee was expected to lose most of those games and teams aren't usually punished for losing to teams ranked above them. During that stretch they also beat a solid Georgia team (currently ranked #23) which helped prevent further free fall.

-Tennessee lost 3 games last week, including a bad loss to A&M. That more than anything else is likely the reason they dropped significantly, going from 21st last week to 28th this week. That's a drop of 7 spots rather than 4.
 
Right now, the Tennessee WBB team is spiraling out of control. Their best player, Janiha Barker was left home for yesterday 's showdown with Oklahoma, due to, what has been reported as "Violation of Team Rules". Tennessee started the season with dismissing a key returning player, due to conduct unbecoming of a University of Tennessee Student Athlete. Add to this, you have your promising Star Freshman Point Guard sustain a Concussion during the South Carolina game, to subsequently miss the following 3 games, and has not been herself during the last 2. You have the Head Coach (who was the SEC Coach of the Year last season) having her coaching style be questioned (despite having it be successful last season). Tennessee has been a tremendously difficult place to coach, since the Pat Summit era. It is a mess right now. But beating LSU and Vandy would certainly put them back on track.
 
BRS24 said:
Largest ORV group this week - Colorado 23, Fairfield 18, Tennessee 12, Columbia 10, Rhode Island 7, N Dakota St 7, Virginia 6, Villanova 6, Southern Cal 5, Rice 4, Iowa St. 3, Syracuse 2, Illinois 2, Notre Dame 1, Washington 1, NC State 1.

Not sure I agree with TN getting this many votes, based on my eye test. They've lost 7 of last 9 games, 6 to SEC foes, got beat badly by UConn, outscored 787 to 619.
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Tenn suffered their worst and third worst losses in their history. When they are bad, they are very bad.
 
Right now Tennessee is 16-10.. Their final two games are against #5 Vanderbilt and #6 LSU...

I wanna see if the Committee puts in a 16-13 Tennessee team (assuming they lose their first SEC tourney game too)

Even though Tennessee hasn't been good since Pat Summit was there, I still/always pay attention to them because they are Tennessee. Force of habit I guess.
 
1974yankees said:
Right now Tennessee is 16-10.. Their final two games are against #5 Vanderbilt and #6 LSU...

I wanna see if the Committee puts in a 16-13 Tennessee team (assuming they lose their first SEC tourney game too)

Even though Tennessee hasn't been good since Pat Summit was there, I still/always pay attention to them because they are Tennessee. Force of habit I guess.
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16-13 is slightly mitigated by playing the #1 sos schedule
 
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Vowelguy said:
16-13 is slightly mitigated by playing the #1 sos schedule
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On the surface the "#1 sos" sounds impressive.. Except I just glanced over their entire schedule. Specifically their 10 losses. Almost all of them were really blowout losses. Except for the Texas and N.C. state game.

To be honest, I almost like it when Tennessee is/was good. It was the best rivalry in the history of the sport.
 
1974yankees said:
On the surface the "#1 sos" sounds impressive.. Except I just glanced over their entire schedule. Specifically their 10 losses. Almost all of them were really blowout losses. Except for the Texas and N.C. state game.

To be honest, I almost like it when Tennessee is/was good. It was the best rivalry in the history of the sport.
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In addition to their 10 losses, many of their wins were against cupcakes during their OOC schedule. While they did play UCLA, UConn, Louisville, Stanford & NC State, there’s a bunch of teams like TN Martin, Winthrop, Southern IN, etc.
 
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