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Message: [QUOTE="auror, post: 5354515, member: 1329"] The whole exercise is futile because the base assumption is flawed. It is possible for [I]anyone[/I] to have a setback, everywhere, as a new transfer or even in the same system. Just look at Karaban last season. Players do [I]generally[/I] get better year over year, but the improvement is not always linear and anyone can hit a bump in the road. Your mid-major up-transfers can't become lottery players argument is asinine because it assumes that players in the same system always improve and that players can't find that "glove fit" in the portal in the first season. Lots of guys are awesome in year 1 at their new school, it's not an automatic "worse because learning new system" rule. Just for example, but Reed was MUCH better at UConn this past year than Michigan the year before. He had no setback or slowdown, he took a big jump in year 1. [/QUOTE]