Another Route to Ft Wayne?

[oldude]

For some time now, UConn fans have been speculating that a loss by either MD or Louisville, along with UConn winning the AAC conference tournament, should result in a ticket to the Ft Wayne region for the Huskies, thereby avoiding the top 3 teams in the regionals. But there is another potential route to Ft Wayne for the Huskies.

In the latest bracketology, Creme has UConn as the #6 overall seed destined for the Portland Region where they could eventually meet the #3 overall seed Oregon. But what if Oregon stumbles in the Pac12 tournament? Clearly, the Pac12 is the strongest conference in WBB, and winning 3 games in 3 days against really strong competition is not a given, even for a team as talented as the Ducks.

Should Oregon stumble, the Ducks could drop to either to the 4th or 5th overall seed. They would still end up in Portland, but UConn, if they remain the 6th overall seed, would likely be redirected to the Ft Wayne region where they could eventually face either MD or Louisville.

Just saying......

 

[eebmg]

For some time now, UConn fans have been speculating that a loss by either MD or Louisville, along with UConn winning the AAC conference tournament, should result in a ticket to the Ft Wayne region for the Huskies, thereby avoiding the top 3 teams in the regionals. But there is another potential route to Ft Wayne for the Huskies.

In the latest bracketology, Creme has UConn as the #6 overall seed destined for the Portland Region where they could eventually meet the #3 overall seed Oregon. But what if Oregon stumbles in the Pac12 tournament? Clearly, the Pac12 is the strongest conference in WBB, and winning 3 games in 3 days against really strong competition is not a given, even for a team as talented as the Ducks.

Should Oregon stumble, the Ducks could drop to either to the 4th or 5th overall seed. They would still end up in Portland, but UConn, if they remain the 6th overall seed, would likely be redirected to the Ft Wayne region where they could eventually face either MD or Louisville.

Just saying......

Doubt an OR loss drops them to 4 or 5. Especially in a final

 

[oldude]

Doubt an OR loss drops them to 4 or 5. Especially in a final

Maybe not, but the selection committee then has to split hairs. Is an Oregon team that loses in their conference tournament better than a Louisville team that they lost to who wins their conference tournament, or a MD team that appears to be firing on all cylinders?

 

[ucbart]

I think the only ways we get to Fort Wayne are:

1. The committee puts Oregon as the #2 overall seed and we go to Dallas.
2. Maryland and Louisville both lose in their conference tournament. Andddddd, the ACC and B1G tourneys are not won by NC State or Northwestern as a result. So, if say Florida State and Indiana win those conference tourneys, we may slide into the #5 overall seed.

 

[HopJim]

Doubt an OR loss drops them to 4 or 5. Especially in a final

Loss by MD-maybe; Louisville-unlikely

 

[Ralph]

I see another option, almost guaranteed. The problem is both Stanford and UCLA being in the top 8. But they are set to play each other in the PAC 12 tourney semi's. One of them has to lose. Whichever one loses is likely to drop down to the 9 slot, and at that point the new number 8 can go out to Oregon. We are still traveling, but not 3,000 miles.

 

[Ralph]

Cal beats ASU today. That has to boost our RPI by at least .00001. That confirms we are now the 5.0688 seed. Rooting for Tenn to win tonight. No wait, I cannot bring myself to do that. Has anyone seen tickets for the Albany regional for sale?

 

[willtalk]

One of the problems is that I think committees put less emphasis on conference tournaments because team are playing back to backs. Sometimes even three games in a row. That is not the same sort of situation they face in the NCAA's., so those unusual circumstances factor are certainly considered. that is especially true this year when almost every top team has an upset on their record.

 

[Plebe]

Doubt an OR loss drops them to 4 or 5. Especially in a final

They’d have to lose to a team like Washington or Utah or Cal to drop to the 2 line. Just losing to AZ or in the final won’t do it IMO.

 

[oldude]

They’d have to lose to a team like Washington or Utah or Cal to drop to the 2 line. Just losing to AZ or in the final won’t do it IMO.

My theory is that any loss by Oregon in the conference tournament drops them from their current 3rd overall seed to at least the 4th overall seed, behind either Louisville or MD, which means UConn, as the 6th overall seed, would be back in the Ft Wayne region playing MD or Louisville.

Oregon would remain a #1 seed in Portland, but they would not be playing UConn.

 

[Plebe]

My theory is that any loss by Oregon in the conference tournament drops them from their current 3rd overall seed to at least the 4th overall seed, behind either Louisville or MD, which means UConn, as the 6th overall seed, would be back in the Ft Wayne region playing MD or Louisville.

Oregon would remain a #1 seed in Portland, but they would not be playing UConn.

I doubt it, not just any loss. There’s a sizable gap between Oregon and the teams right behind them in terms of body of work. Just one loss to a good team probably won’t negate that gap.

Oregon would have to drop to #5 overall to open up FW for UConn in your alternate route scenario. If they drop to only #4, they stay in Portland as the 1 seed and nothing has changed geographically.

 

[oldude]

I doubt it, not just any loss. There’s a sizable gap between Oregon and the teams right behind them in terms of body of work. Just one loss to a good team probably won’t negate that gap.

Oregon would have to drop to #5 overall to open up FW for UConn in your alternate route scenario. If they drop to only #4, they stay in Portland and nothing has changed geographically.

Let me try this another way. Oregon loses in the conference tournament. They remain in Portland as a #1, but fall from the 3rd overall seed to the 4th overall seed. Louisville, who beat Oregon straight up earlier in the season, goes on to win the ACC tournament. They earn a #1 seed in the Ft Wayne region as the 3rd overall seed.

MD wins the BIG conference tournament, earning them a #2 seed. As the 5th overall seed, MD heads to Portland. UConn wins the AAC tournament, which keeps them exactly where they are today, as a #2 seed, the 6th overall seed. The result, UConn still faces the 3rd overall seed, but that ends up being Louisville in Ft Wayne rather than Oregon in Portland.

 

[JoePgh]

MD wins the BIG conference tournament, earning them a #2 seed. As the 5th overall seed, MD heads to Portland. UConn wins the AAC tournament, which keeps them exactly where they are today, as a #2 seed, the 6th overall seed. The result, UConn still faces the 3rd overall seed, but that ends up being Louisville in Ft Wayne rather than Oregon in Portland.

I believe your bolded statement above is a fallacious deduction, based on the rules that have been enunciated on the women's side. If (as you hypothesize) Maryland is #5 overall and thus the top #2 seed, it gets the first "choice" of the closest regional based on geography. Since Fort Wayne is closer to College Park, MD than Portland is, that is where Maryland would go. The S-curve plays a role by determining who gets the first "choice" (not a real choice) among the #2 seeds to pick the closest regional, but it does NOT necessarily play the weakest #1 seed as a strict S-curve would dictate.

 

[Plebe]

Let me try this another way. Oregon loses in the conference tournament. They remain in Portland as a #1, but fall from the 3rd overall seed to the 4th overall seed. Louisville, who beat Oregon straight up earlier in the season, goes on to win the ACC tournament. They earn a #1 seed in the Ft Wayne region as the 3rd overall seed.

MD wins the BIG conference tournament, earning them a #2 seed. As the 5th overall seed, MD heads to Portland. UConn wins the AAC tournament, which keeps them exactly where they are today, as a #2 seed, the 6th overall seed. The result, UConn still faces the 3rd overall seed, but that ends up being Louisville in Ft Wayne rather than Oregon in Portland.

I see where you’re going with that. But here’s the problem with your scenario. Maryland is currently ahead of Louisville. There’s no way Louisville jumps Maryland if the Terps win the B1G. The ACC is down.

Even if MD is #5 overall, the committee could still choose to send them to FW on geographical considerations. No guarantee they’d be sent to Portland in that scenario.

 

[oldude]

I believe your bolded statement above is a fallacious deduction, based on the rules that have been enunciated on the women's side. If (as you hypothesize) Maryland is #5 overall and thus the top #2 seed, it gets the first "choice" of the closest regional based on geography. Since Fort Wayne is closer to College Park, MD than Portland is, that is where Maryland would go. The S-curve plays a role by determining who gets the first "choice" (not a real choice) among the #2 seeds to pick the closest regional, but it does NOT necessarily play the weakest #1 seed as a strict S-curve would dictate.

Greenville, SC is about 100 miles closer to College Park, MD than Ft Wayne, IN.

 

[oldude]

I see where you’re going with that. But here’s the problem with your scenario. Maryland is currently ahead of Louisville. There’s no way Louisville jumps Maryland it the Terps win the B1G. The ACC is down.

Even if MD is #5 overall, the committee could still choose to send them to FW on geographical considerations. No guarantee they’d be sent to Portland in that scenario.

You may be correct relative to Louisville jumping MD, but geographical considerations would put the Terps in Greenville, SC.

 

[Plebe]

You may be correct relative to Louisville jumping MD, but geographical considerations would put the Terps in Greenville, SC.

Yes technically but the committee has to find a balance between geography and competitive equity. Putting a #5 Maryland with #1 SC would be highly distorting to the S curve. You never know with the committee, but I see that as highly doubtful.

 

[oldude]

Yes technically but the committee has to find a balance between geography and competitive equity. Putting a #5 Maryland with #1 SC would be highly distorting to the S curve. You never know with the committee, but I see that as highly doubtful.

But the committee would be OK putting a #6 UConn with a #4 Oregon, when they could have #6 UConn play whichever team (MD/Louisville) is #3, sending whichever team (Louisville/MD) is #5 to Portland to play #4 Oregon? I’m confused.

 

[Plebe]

But the committee would be OK putting a #6 UConn with a #4 Oregon, when they could have #6 UConn play whichever team (MD/Louisville) is #3, sending whichever team (Louisville/MD) is #5 to Portland to play #4 Oregon? I’m confused.

In short, yes they would be OK with that. It’s exactly what they did last year by pairing #5 UConn with #3 Louisville and #6 Oregon with #4 Miss St. Departing from the S curve by only one spot isn’t that upsetting to competitive balance. Putting the top 2 seed with the top 1 seed would be.

If Maryland is ahead of UConn on the 2 line then the committee may deem them as having first dibs at a spot just one time zone away as opposed to 3. Pretty much as @JoePgh explained it

 

[dvegas]

There will be some UConn JuJu on the Purdue bench vs Maryland tomorrow. Terry Kix our All American goaltender from the 81 & 84 field hockey national champions is their director of basketball operations. Boiler Up!

 

[LOhunter]

Maybe not, but the selection committee then has to split hairs. Is an Oregon team that loses in their conference tournament better than a Louisville team that they lost to who wins their conference tournament, or a MD team that appears to be firing on all cylinders?

Yes.

 

[Glenn]

it would help UConn's chances if Northwestern does well and replaces UCLA as the number 8 team.