Analysis and Comments - Game 30 - UConn vs Villanova (game 2)

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

Game two will be played on Wednesday at Gampel Pavillion - at 7:00 pm. The first meeting between these two BE schools resulted in an 81 - 60, UConn victory. Villanova is a fairly young team starting 1 senior, 3 Juniors, and 1 Freshman. The starters play 73 percent of the total minutes with Lucy Olsen and Bellos Runyan each playing approximately 35 minutes. Villanova goes as Lucy Olsen goes. Lucy is Villanova's most

Villanova averages 65.8 points per game while holding their opponents to 59.5 points a game. Villanova is somewhat stingy with the basketball only giving up 10.4 turnovers while forcing 15.1 from the opposition. In another somewhat lopsided stat, Villanova scores 15.2 points off turnovers while giving up only 9.8 from their opposition. Villanova's on-ball defense and their effective zone will force UConn to take care of the basketball. In the first meeting, UConn had 13 turnovers with 5 of them coming from our bench. UConn was able to force 11 turnovers. Villanova was able to get 4 points off fast breaks while UConn got 11 points off fast breaks. Villanova averages 7 steals per game while UConn averages 10.2 steals per game

Villanova averages 6.2 three-pointers and shoots them at .300 while UConn averages 7.1 and shoots them at .364. Villanova gets 35.5 rebounds per game while UConn gets 38.7 per game.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards - 6'3" vs Christine Dalce - 6'2" - In the last match-up with UConn Dalce scored 7 points, 3 rebounds, and had 1 block. Edwards had 22 points, 7 rebounds, and added 1 block as well. In what may be Aaliyah's last home game I expect that she will dominate this match-up.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0" vs Bellos Runyan - 5'11" - In Villanova's first game with UConn Runyan played 33 minutes but was unable to score. Runyan was able to contribute 4 rebounds and 4 assists. Paige had 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. I am not sure if Paige will be matched up with Runyan or if will she match up with Lucy Olsen. Nika Muhl likes to defend the other team's best guard so I lean toward the Muhl vs Olsen matchup. Therefore, in this matchup, Paige vs Runyan I would expect Paige to dominate this matchup. If by chance Paige were to match up with Lucy Olsen, we would see a much more competitive match-up but the results would be essentially the same. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl - 5'11" vs Lucy Olsen - 5'9" - Lucy is Villanova's best weapon. She is a stat machine. Lucy is having a great season, she is averaging 23.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.9 steals, and hits 1.6 three-pointers per game. When UConn played Villanova at Villanova Lucy tallied 15 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, and 2 three-pointers. One concern regarding Nika's play is whether or not she will stay out of foul trouble. Last game Nika stayed out of foul trouble and only had 2 fouls. This enabled her to have a fantastic game where she tallied 12 points, 5 rebounds, 10 assists, 2 steals, and 2 three-pointers. Assuming that Nika is matched up with Lucy I believe that Nika will be able to contain Lucy. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" vs Maddie Weber 5'11" - Maddie is a solid player who averages 8.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 three-point. Ashlynn has been a pleasant surprise for UConn this season averaging 11.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers. However, in the last match-up with Villanova Ashlynn did not have a great game. In that matchup, she tallied 4 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal. This time around I expect Ashlynn to play closer to her averages.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold - 5'9" vs Kaitlin Orihel - 5'10" - Kaitlin averages 5.4 points, 2.2 rebounds, and .8 three-pointers per game. KK averages 8.9 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.3 steals, and .6 three-pointers per game. In the last match, Kaitlin tallied 9 points where she went 3-3 from three-point, Kaitlin also contributed 1 rebound and 1 assist. KK tallied 13 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 three-pointer. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

Villanova will bring 10.4 points and 6.7 rebounds off the bench while UConn will bring 11.2 points and 7.2 rebounds off the bench.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

This game will be played at Gampel, it could be Nika and Aaliyah's last home game so, emotions will be high. I think the talent and experience that UConn has will be too much for Villanova. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

UConn coaching staff will have UConn prepared for this one since UConn, has clinched the number one seed for the Big East Tournament and for the most part has the conference championship sewed up they are now playing for its seeding in the NCAAs. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORING

UConn - 86
Villanova - 58

MOV - 28 points


.

 

[Bone Dog]

I expect a win in this game. But there's a couple of intangibles here in Olsen and Dalce.

Dalce has had good games against UConn in the past, and she can be an effective rim protector and rebounder. She wasn't very effective against this year's version of Aaliyah, who has taken it up a couple of notches since last season. Can Dalce gain some ground in this matchup? I wouldn't rule it out, but I hope not.

Lucy Olsen is an excellent PG and slashing scorer. She is very hard to stop. Nika contained her pretty well last time, with the help of KK and Ash. Can they do it again? I hope so.

After those two, Villanova shuffles 5 big guards onto the floor -- Webber Burke Jones Runyan and Orihel -- any one of whom can score effectively. Jones is little at 5'6", but the rest are 5'10"-6'0", and they can cause problems if they start hitting. They're like utility infielders who can do a lot of little things, and who all hustle when they're on the floor.

That's the challenge they pose. Paige and Aaliyah are pretty much unanswerable and will get their 50 points and control the boards. What will matter this time is what the rest of the team can do. Nika KK and Ash have an opportunity to shine against a scrappy team who can test them. I hope to see Ash find her shooting touch, and for KK to slash to the lane and make them defend her everywhere, and above all for Nika to hit from 3 and score of the dribble.

I also really hope to see ice and Q get some major minutes and build their confidence even more. I love watching Q hit the 3, but I like even more to see her drive the lane. This kid can do it all and I want to see more of it. I'd also like to see her block a few shots. She has the length to do it, and she's quick on her feet. And Ice needs to figure out how to outmuscle someone like Dalce without getting into foul trouble.

 

[Centerstream]

Yesterday I looked at the BE Player Stats and noticed that 1 rebound separated Dalce and Aaliyah from the conference leadership. Dalce is leading, with her O rebounds being much higher than her D rebounds (that surprised me). This game could help either player establish themselves as the season ending leader.
Also as most BYers are probably aware, the two leading scorers will be going head to head but I am guessing that the averages are too far apart for Paige to surpass Olsen and possibly cement the POY. BTW Aaliyah is in 3rd place in the scoring battle.
Something else caught my eye, the Huskies have played 29 games vs. Nova's 27 but our Huskies have played less minutes than Olsen.

 

[Next 12]

This is Uconn and Uconn has shown that they are the best team in the the BE,period .Uconn has become a fine tuned machine that because of it's defense and prolific scoring players will bring another title to Uconn. I stated before, we have 2 super stars in Paige and Aaliyah and 3 future super stars in Ashlynn and KK and Qaadence. .In the last 4 games the team has come together as a dominant unit with the skies the limit. Actuall the NC. GO HUSKIES!!!!! GO FRESHMEN!!!!

 

[Rowdy831]

UConn will win this game easily while putting on a show for the last home game of the season. There is no doubt that Paige is the best player in the league and I would expect her to show that Wednesday going against the distant number 2. I personally would put AE in second place on the league list and she is another player poised to have a huge last game at home.

After the Big Three UConn needs players that can play some defense, hit open shots and limit the turnovers. This team will be challenged but it won't be in the Big East or the Big East Tournament unless AE and Paige get into foul trouble.

 

[cferraro04]

Bone Dog: I hope to see Ash find her shooting touch...

From your lips to God's ears...

 

[The deacon]

COMMENTS

Game two will be played on Wednesday at Gampel Pavillion - at 7:00 pm. The first meeting between these two BE schools resulted in an 81 - 60, UConn victory. Villanova is a fairly young team starting 1 senior, 3 Juniors, and 1 Freshman. The starters play 73 percent of the total minutes with Lucy Olsen and Bellos Runyan each playing approximately 35 minutes. Villanova goes as Lucy Olsen goes. Lucy is Villanova's most

Villanova averages 65.8 points per game while holding their opponents to 59.5 points a game. Villanova is somewhat stingy with the basketball only giving up 10.4 turnovers while forcing 15.1 from the opposition. In another somewhat lopsided stat, Villanova scores 15.2 points off turnovers while giving up only 9.8 from their opposition. Villanova's on-ball defense and their effective zone will force UConn to take care of the basketball. In the first meeting, UConn had 13 turnovers with 5 of them coming from our bench. UConn was able to force 11 turnovers. Villanova was able to get 4 points off fast breaks while UConn got 11 points off fast breaks. Villanova averages 7 steals per game while UConn averages 10.2 steals per game

Villanova averages 6.2 three-pointers and shoots them at .300 while UConn averages 7.1 and shoots them at .364. Villanova gets 35.5 rebounds per game while UConn gets 38.7 per game.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards - 6'3" vs Christine Dalce - 6'2" - In the last match-up with UConn Dalce scored 7 points, 3 rebounds, and had 1 block. Edwards had 22 points, 7 rebounds, and added 1 block as well. In what may be Aaliyah's last home game I expect that she will dominate this match-up.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0" vs Bellos Runyan - 5'11" - In Villanova's first game with UConn Runyan played 33 minutes but was unable to score. Runyan was able to contribute 4 rebounds and 4 assists. Paige had 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. I am not sure if Paige will be matched up with Runyan or if will she match up with Lucy Olsen. Nika Muhl likes to defend the other team's best guard so I lean toward the Muhl vs Olsen matchup. Therefore, in this matchup, Paige vs Runyan I would expect Paige to dominate this matchup. If by chance Paige were to match up with Lucy Olsen, we would see a much more competitive match-up but the results would be essentially the same. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl - 5'11" vs Lucy Olsen - 5'9" - Lucy is Villanova's best weapon. She is a stat machine. Lucy is having a great season, she is averaging 23.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.9 steals, and hits 1.6 three-pointers per game. When UConn played Villanova at Villanova Lucy tallied 15 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, and 2 three-pointers. One concern regarding Nika's play is whether or not she will stay out of foul trouble. Last game Nika stayed out of foul trouble and only had 2 fouls. This enabled her to have a fantastic game where she tallied 12 points, 5 rebounds, 10 assists, 2 steals, and 2 three-pointers. Assuming that Nika is matched up with Lucy I believe that Nika will be able to contain Lucy. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" vs Maddie Weber 5'11" - Maddie is a solid player who averages 8.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 three-point. Ashlynn has been a pleasant surprise for UConn this season averaging 11.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers. However, in the last match-up with Villanova Ashlynn did not have a great game. In that matchup, she tallied 4 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal. This time around I expect Ashlynn to play closer to her averages.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold - 5'9" vs Kaitlin Orihel - 5'10" - Kaitlin averages 5.4 points, 2.2 rebounds, and .8 three-pointers per game. KK averages 8.9 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.3 steals, and .6 three-pointers per game. In the last match, Kaitlin tallied 9 points where she went 3-3 from three-point, Kaitlin also contributed 1 rebound and 1 assist. KK tallied 13 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 three-pointer. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

Villanova will bring 10.4 points and 6.7 rebounds off the bench while UConn will bring 11.2 points and 7.2 rebounds off the bench.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

This game will be played at Gampel, it could be Nika and Aaliyah's last home game so, emotions will be high. I think the talent and experience that UConn has will be too much for Villanova. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

UConn coaching staff will have UConn prepared for this one since UConn, has clinched the number one seed for the Big East Tournament and for the most part has the conference championship sewed up they are now playing for its seeding in the NCAAs. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORING

UConn - 86
Villanova - 58

MOV - 28 points


.

Charlie, as you noted, there be a bit of wishin' and hopin' on your part in giving UConn the edge between Nika and Lucy.

I recall Lucy committed a couple of quick fouls in their January game and it seemed to diminish her usual instinct to take it inside from that point on.

I expect the Huskies to roll, but for Olsen to have a better game. In a Big East short on top talent, Lucy's probably the only alternative Big East voters might have for conference POY in addition to Aaliyah and Paige.

Thanks, as always, for your preview efforts!

 

[cferraro04]

Charlie, as you noted, there be a bit of wishin' and hopin' on your part in giving UConn the edge between Nika and Lucy.

I recall Lucy committed a couple of quick fouls in their January game and it seemed to diminish her usual instinct to take it inside from that point on.

I expect the Huskies to roll, but for Olsen to have a better game. In a Big East short on top talent, Lucy's probably the only alternative Big East voters might have for conference POY in addition to Aaliyah and Paige.

Thanks, as always, for your preview efforts!

deacon...I agree with you that Olsen is a major candidate for Player of the Year in the Big East. I also agree that there is a certain amount of wishin' and hopin'. In game one both Nika and Lucy had two fouls... Lucy did play 32 minutes which is only 4 minutes off her average. You may have a point that having those two fouls early may have caused Olsen to play her usual aggressive game.

Anything could happen in this rematch...NIka could get into foul trouble. UConn's help defense will almost certainly make Lucy a focal point of their defense. And between Muhl, Bueckers, KK, and Shade...UConn could make it tough on Lucy to put the team on her shoulders. On the other hand, we could see Olsen go off and have a career game...I guess this is why we play the games. If Olsen is unable to put the team on her shoulders I don't see anyone else on the Villanova team who is capable of doing it.

 

[Urshurak]

If there was ever a “trap” game, this is it. I expect UConn to pull it out, even if it’s not pretty. Villanova is talented, but not super consistent. Lost a couple of Big East games they shouldn’t have. So, bad day by UConn and great day by Villanova and…..anything can happen. Someone said above that UConn is a fine tuned machine. I wouldn’t go that far. Talent alone should propel UConn to a win, but they need to take care of business. Nova would like nothing more than to pull an upset.

 

[Bone Dog]

If there was ever a “trap” game, this is it.

I share your concern. This game seems more worrisome than the Creighton and Marquette games. Olsen and Dalce wouldn’t be enough for an upset. Someone else on Villanova would also have to break out, as they say. Maybe Webber.

I suspect Paige and Aaliyah will be enough. But I’d also like to see the freshmen use Wednesday as an opportunity to up their own games. We don’t need a squeaker win. We need KK Ash Ice and especially Q to shine against a tough opponent.

 

[Zarathustra]

Yesterday I looked at the BE Player Stats and noticed that 1 rebound separated Dalce and Aaliyah from the conference leadership. Dalce is leading, with her O rebounds being much higher than her D rebounds (that surprised me). This game could help either player establish themselves as the season ending leader.
Also as most BYers are probably aware, the two leading scorers will be going head to head but I am guessing that the averages are too far apart for Paige to surpass Olsen and possibly cement the POY. BTW Aaliyah is in 3rd place in the scoring battle.
Something else caught my eye, the Huskies have played 29 games vs. Nova's 27 but our Huskies have played less minutes than Olsen.

Wouldn't you think that the PLAYER OF THE YEAR ( in the BIG EAST) might go to the best "player" and not to
the individual who has the highest points per game average. IMO it's between Aaliyah and Paige!

 

[Centerstream]

deacon...I agree with you that Olsen is a major candidate for Player of the Year in the Big East. I also agree that there is a certain amount of wishin' and hopin'. In game one both Nika and Lucy had two fouls... Lucy did play 32 minutes which is only 4 minutes off her average. You may have a point that having those two fouls early may have caused Olsen to play her usual aggressive game.

Anything could happen in this rematch...NIka could get into foul trouble. UConn's help defense will almost certainly make Lucy a focal point of their defense. And between Muhl, Bueckers, KK, and Shade...UConn could make it tough on Lucy to put the team on her shoulders. On the other hand, we could see Olsen go off and have a career game...I guess this is why we play the games. If Olsen is unable to put the team on her shoulders I don't see anyone else on the Villanova team who is capable of doing it.

On Saturday against Creighton, Nova started the game with 5 consecutive made 3s, only 1 by Olsen, in the 1st quarter.
We need to come out and play lock down outside defense on everyone not named Dalce. However, Nova did cool off, making 4 more 3s the rest of the game.
We can do this!

 

[Centerstream]

Wouldn't you think that the PLAYER OF THE YEAR ( in the BIG EAST) might go to the best "player" and not to
the individual who has the highest points per game average. IMO it's between Aaliyah and Paige!

I do.