Analysis and Comments - Game 20 - UConn vs Marquette

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

Well since this is the second time UConn has played Marquette this season...the tale of the tape will be a comparison of last game stats and what the team usually averages.



TALE OF THE TAPE


……………………….........UConn………Marquette


1st Game Score……………95…………………64
Average points/game……..84…………………77

1st Game FG%……………52.0%…………….34.4%
Avg. FG%………………….51.7%…………….48.9%

1st Game 3pt. made………8……………………6
Avg. 3pt made…………….7.4…………………7.2

1st game 3pt %…………..34.8%…………….28.6%
Avg. 3pt %………………...37.6%…………….39.6%

1st Game FT %…………...64.7%…………….76.2%
Avg. FT %………………….74.8%…………….74.5%

1st Game Rebounds……...47………………….32
Avg. Rebs / game…………37.9……………….37.8

1st Game Steals……………8……………………3
Avg. Steals/game………...10.3…………………7.1

1st Game turnovers………..7……………………9
Avg. TOs / game………….13.5…………………15

…………………….1st game individual stats

………………………….Marquette

………………………………pts…………………..Avg.

Liza Karlen…….………….13.0………………….17.5
Jordan King……………….16.0…………………14.8
Mackenzie Hare…………..12.0…………………14.7
Frannie Hottinger…………..4…………………….8.8
Rose Nkumu………………..8…………………….7.7
Skylar Forbes……………..10.0…………………..6.1

…………………………….UConn

………………………………..pts………………….Avg.

Paige Bueckers…………….25.0…………………19.8
Aaliyah Edwards …………..19.0…………………16.7
Ashlynn Shade……………..12.0…………………11.3
KK Arnold……………………13.0…………………9.6
Nika Muhl…………………….5.0…………………..6.9
Aubrey Griffin*……………….9.0…………………..9.5

*Because she played in the last game and her absence may impact this game.

As you can see from the above statistics with UConn playing at home UConn over-achieved and Marquette under-achieved. Now the script is flipped. Does that mean Marquette plays better at home and UConn underachieves? Additionally, what is the impact of not having Aubrey in the line-up? And, do our reserve players show that they have gotten better and do they make up for Aubrey Griffin's 9 points and 9 rebounds? In our first match-up with Marquette Q had 5 points, Ice Brady had 5 points and Amari had 2 points.

How has Marquette done in its last 5 games?

Marquette lost a squeaker to Villanova 66 - 63 on January 17th. Mackenzie Hare exploded for 21 points on 5 for 10 from 3-point. They pulled down 32 rebounds and had 15 turnovers. Liza Karlen kicked in 16 points.

On January 13th they beat DePaul by 31 points 78 - 47. Karlen had 19, King had 16, and Rose had 12 in that one. Marquette had 38 rebounds, 4 threes, 8 blocks, and, 18 turnovers.

On January 9th they beat Seton Hall by 21 points 75 - 54. Karlen exploded for 30 points with 2-3 from three-point. Jordan King went 4-9 from three-point. Marquette had 10 threes in that one. They committed 13 turnovers.

On January 6, they beat Xavier by 29 points 81- 52. It was MacKenzie Hare's turn as she scored 19 points on 4-9 from three-point. Liza Karlen contributed 17 points. They were able to get 14 steals while committing 16 turnovers themselves.

On January 3rd they lost another squeaker to St. John's 57 - 56. Marquette committed 23 turnovers in that one. Frannie Hottinger led all Marquette scorers with 15 points.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" vs Liza Karlen 6'2" - In the last match-up Liza went for 13 points and Aliyah scored 19. Aliyah pulled down 12 rebounds in that game while Liza was able to get 7. This game is at Marquette maybe Liza will be more comfortable at home and have a better game...also, over the last 5 games Liza has put together some scoring outbursts...hitting 30, 19, 17, and 15. She is also capable of stepping out to the three and knocking down a three. Aaliyah had her number the last time these two teams met...let's hope she can do it again. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers 6'0" vs MacKenzie Hare 5'9" - In my analysis for the first game I had Paige matched up with MacKenzie Hare...and even though because of her size it almost makes sense to put Paige on Jordan King...however, MacKenzie can be an explosive offensive player who averages 3 three-pointers per game. MacKenzie averages 14.7 points, 2.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. She is listed as a forward even though Jordan King is two inches taller and is listed as a guard. Since Paige has been playing the G/F position since Aubrey went down I think this is a better match-up. Either way, MacKenzie will not be able to contain Paige.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5'11" vs Rose Nkumu 5'9" - Rose is Marquette's best playmaker as she averages 5.1 assists per game. She averages 7.7 points and 2 rebounds per game. Nika is a great defender and should disrupt Rose's ability to make plays. Nika averages 6.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade 5'10" vs Fannie Hottinger 6'1" - This is where my biggest questions lie. Last game we had Aubrey Griffin 6'1" to play off of Fannie. With Aubrey not available to play UConn has limited choices. Moving Ashlynn over to defend Fannie may be the best option. Fannie averages 8.8 points and 7.6 rebounds. If Ashlynn and UConn as a team do not box out Fannie she may have a good night on the boards. Ashlynn must limit Fannie on the boards. Ashlynn averages 11.3 points and 2.4 rebounds per game. I believe that Fannie will not be able to stop Ashlynn from outscoring her but I don't think Ashlynn will be able to keep Fannie off the boards.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

KK Arnold 5'9" vs Jordan King 5'11" - Jordan averages 14.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.7 three-pointers, and 3.7 assists per game. She is somewhat of a stat-stuffer. KK is a stat-stuffer in her own right. She averages 9.6 points, 2.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.4 steals per game. KK can be annoying on defense and she is very capable of disrupting Jordan's ability to do what she wants to do. However, Jordan was able to score 16 points in Marquette's first game with UConn this year.
ADVANTAGE - MARQUETTE

BENCH

Marquette brings 16.8 points and 12 rebounds off the bench while UConn brings 12 points and 7.6 rebounds off the bench.
ADVANTAGE - MARQUETTE

INTANGIBLES

This is a home game for Marquette and conventional wisdom says that home court is worth about 5 points. This won't be enough to overcome the 31-point disparity of their first match-up. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

I see nothing from the Marquette coaching staff that would convince me that they have UConn's number. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UCONN - 82
MARQUETTE - 68
MOV - 14

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, @cferraro04! I completely agree with your conclusion and MoV. In fact, you may have hit my prognostication on the nose -- I don't remember exactly what I put there, but it was probably near what you have here.

I think the decisive factor is whether Jordan King is fully healthy. She wore a knee brace last time and seemed a little off her game. If she's back at full strength, then this could be a very competitive game. They are a similar team to UConn -- essentially 4 guards and Liza Karlen. Our guards are quicker and may be better scorers on the whole. The difference is, although Liza can score against Aaliyah, she can't really defend her. and nobody on Marquette can match up with Paige. Can Nika limit King's effectiveness so that Hare and Nkumu have to beat KK and Ash, and Paige roams almost free, guarded by the much slower Hottinger? I think so.

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks again, @cferraro04! I completely agree with your conclusion and MoV. In fact, you may have hit my prognostication on the nose -- I don't remember exactly what I put there, but it was probably near what you have here.

I think the decisive factor is whether Jordan King is fully healthy. She wore a knee brace last time and seemed a little off her game. If she's back at full strength, then this could be a very competitive game. They are a similar team to UConn -- essentially 4 guards and Liza Karlen. Our guards are quicker and may be better scorers on the whole. The difference is, although Liza can score against Aaliyah, she can't really defend her. and nobody on Marquette can match up with Paige. Can Nika limit King's effectiveness so that Hare and Nkumu have to beat KK and Ash, and Paige roams almost free, guarded by the much slower Hottinger? I think so.

Hey Bone Dog...I never look at the prognosis thread until after I have done my analysis...I don't want to have everyone else's guess to influence how I analyze the game. I haven't been able to hit the MOV or get into the scoring zone for points...but, I believe I do hit on the flow of the game, where we will have difficulties and where we will be able to exploit our opponents. It is just hard to hit the score accurately...we don't know who is going to get into the game from the bench, how many minutes they will get, does Geno tell the team to take the foot off the gas, who is hot from the other team...they always seem to play better against UConn.

UConn has been impressive of late, getting good play out of our freshmen starters and Geno being able to give minutes to Ice, Q, Bettencourt, and Amari. I truly believe that we will need some depth during the postseason. We cannot put it all on the starters. It is still a long season with a lot of basketball to play. In my opinion..Ice is the lynchpin to our post-season chances...we need her to be a productive big. We are asking an awful lot of Paige, Aaliyah, and Nika to carry this team across the finish line.

I am concerned about playing Marquette at home and not having Aubrey. While Aubrey only scored 9 points and got 9 rebounds she impacts the game with her defense and athleticism. Not having that this game is worrisome. I don't think Q and Ice can make up for the loss of Aubrey. I know that we have 31 points to work with but I think we over-achieved in that game and I think Marquette under-achieved. I think playing at home Marquette is more likely to hit their averages which would put them at or around 77 points and we are more than likely to be around our average which would be about 84 points...this puts us right around the margin of error given that home court could account for 5 points or more. I think we will win this game but I think it will be closer than a lot of people think.

 

[Bone Dog]

Now you’re making me nervous, @cferraro04. I hope it’s not that close. Mainly because I’d like to see Inês get some good minutes. On the other hand, I suspect that Ash and KK could use a positive experience in a close game. After our initial struggles, they’ve mainly been in blowouts. I’m pretty sure both of them will thrive under the pressure of a close game.

 

[Zarathustra]

My view of this game is focused on it's being played in Marquette. GIVE THE
GOLDEN EAGLES a few points for that. And that Jordan King was hampered in
the first game by some sort of leg injury ( she played, of course ) and she
could be at full strength Tuesday night. My MOV is smaller than last time
because I see GENO trying out different variations from his " extended
bench " (I smile there) to see what might " work " against N.D. GO HUSKIES!

 

[Centerstream]

A new Intangible: will being left off the AP Top 25 today be an incentive or a depressant?

 

[Rowdy831]

There are a couple reasons that UConn could be a little flat in this game and that could make this game competitive. I am looking at the young players to show if they are young players or mature beyond their years by how they come out and handle their business in this classic trap game.

If UConn plays at their level no team that doesn't have an advantage inside has a chance. They have 3-4 good defenders, they all can shoot and when all else fails they have Paige. I huge blowout will mean they kept the focus and are ready to show their stuff against ND.

 

[mhshuskies]

This should be the last significant test of the regular season, after this it should be a cakewalk to go undefeated to the tourney.

 

[Zarathustra]

A new Intangible: will being left off the AP Top 25 today be an incentive or a depressant?

MARQUETTE will use it as an "INCENTIVE". I still see a UCONN 20-point win.

 

[Urshurak]

You nailed it I think. I have the MOV at 13 for UConn.

This is going to be a tough game. Guarantee it.

 

[DEFCONN1]

This should be the last significant test of the regular season, after this it should be a cakewalk to go undefeated to the tourney.

Norte Dame and South Carolina might beg to differ…

 

[Cuango]

Norte Dame and South Carolina might beg to differ…

I believe mhshuskies was referring to conference play.

 

[freshler40]

Hoping for a solid low turnover game from the Huskies. In recent games we have been in the mid 15's or higher. Mostly because of travel calls and poor ball handling by our bigs. This has to change with more emphasis on dribbling first, not happy feet first. A second area for clean-up is the high number of missed lay-ups. Some players speed approaching the hoop is often out of control. We do the hard part by doing great fakes and miss the lay-ups. All the above issues are correctable.

 

[mhshuskies]

Norte Dame and South Carolina might beg to differ…

Oh yeah, I forgot about SC