American 2018-2019

[BFieldHusky]

As wide open going into the season as any conference in college basketball. You can eliminate some teams at the bottom, although look to see improvement this year from USF, ECU and Tulane, as their new coaching staffs really get to bring in their own players.

Out of the 12 teams, 9 could make the NCAA tournament. As of today I look at the league like this:

Tier 1 (Should be tournament teams)

Cincy
Houston
UCF

Tier 2 (very well could be tournament teams if things break right)

UCONN
Witchia State
Memphis
Temple
Tulsa
SMU

Bottom Tier:
Tulane
USF
ECU

Out of that 2nd group, the teams that realistically have a shot would be UCONN, Witchia State, Memphis and Temple. But Tulsa returns most of their team which finished 4th last year in the league, and SMU still has some talent left on that team.

What is really fascinating is the balance in the league. Even the teams at that first Tier have major questions. Houston lost their 2 best players. Cincy lost their 3 best players. UCF had major injury issues last year.

Then you look at UCONN. New coaching staff. But returns a lot of the roster. Memphis has a new staff, and an influx of young players. Witcha State brings back almost a whole new team. Temple is so inconsistent but has talent.

Should be interesting.

 

[Balker]

Personally, I wouldn't say any AAC teams "should" make the tournament. Maybe Cincinnati. But a lot certainly could, I agree with that. And I'd guess at least 3 will. Just which 3 is probably seriously up for grabs among those 9.

 

[tjc1888]

I would probably move Houston into Tier 2. The lost the best scorer in the league, he'll be hard to replace.

I would also move Tulsa and Temple into a third tier....I have no faith in those teams making the tournament even with things breaking their way.

 

[WrenchFan69]

Keep Tier 3 the same and drop everyone from Tier 1 to Tier 2. There's a pretty real chance only 2 teams make the tournament. Will be a very competitive regular season though.

 

[ClassOf2021]

UCONN

You've committed the cardinal sin, and for that, I can't take anything you say with any validity.

 

[UofCT]

*UConn

 

[Wordbomar]

Only Tier 1 team in my mind is Cincy.

The other two you have listed should fall into Tier 2.

And I agree with the Tier 3’s.

Due to being a weak year I could see only getting 2, maybe 3 teams in this year.

 

[YoungFree]

I wonder how long the pre-AAC Wichita State support from voters last. I think they were majorally overrated last year and people gave them votes based on previous performance. Do we feel it is completley gone now?

 

[Wordbomar]

I wonder how long the pre-AAC Wichita State support from voters last. I think they were majorally overrated last year and people gave them votes based on previous performance. Do we feel it is completley gone now?

This was so predictable that would happen.

 

[Balker]

I wonder how long the pre-AAC Wichita State support from voters last. I think they were majorally overrated last year and people gave them votes based on previous performance. Do we feel it is completley gone now?

Why were they overrated? They had 8 losses by an average of 5 points. 15 BPI 18 RPI. 4 seed. Sounds like just regular rated. They lost a first round game in an upset... but that's what happens in single elimination tournaments...

 

[YoungFree]

Why were they overrated? They had 8 losses by an average of 5 points. 15 BPI 18 RPI. 4 seed. Sounds like just regular rated. They lost a first round game in an upset... but that's what happens in single elimination tournaments...

I watched a few of their games and they did not look like the Top 10 team that they were for a large portion of the year. It was just a feeling more than statistical analysis...i know opinions are deadly to have on the Boneyard when you don't have anything to back it up other than a feeling but I've been the butt of keyboard lashings in the past so I'm used to it.

 

[Balker]

I watched a few of their games and they did not look like the Top 10 team that they were for a large portion of the year. It was just a feeling more than statistical analysis...i know opinions are deadly to have on the Boneyard when you don't have anything to back it up other than a feeling but I've been the butt of keyboard lashings in the past so I'm used to it.

Yeah I mean that's fair. I'd agree in the sense that they looked well coached but physically overmatched in many games to me, and were ranked too high for the early part of the year. I still think they were fairly assessed at the end of the year with regards to seeding.

I think they are actually at a disadvantage now, in the sense that it's far more likely they will be exposed during conference play than was the case in the past.

 

[YoungFree]

Yeah I mean that's fair. I'd agree in the sense that they looked well coached but physically overmatched in many games to me, and were ranked too high for the early part of the year. I still think they were fairly assessed at the end of the year with regards to seeding.

I think they are actually at a disadvantage now, in the sense that it's far more likely they will be exposed during conference play than was the case in the past.

Yeah, when it comes to conference play, I fell they didn't meet anyone's expectations really. There was a sense that they were going to come in and steamroll a lot of teams (they did us unfortunately) but they struggled a lot more than was expected. It shows that the Missouri Valley isn't comparable to the AAC.....well, as long as you forget UL-Chicago.

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

I'd put money down on UCF not making the tournament.
Only team I would expect to make the tournament is Cinci. Despite losing a lot, Cronin (love him or hate him) hasn't missed the tournament in 9 years, I believe.
Other than that, pick 1-3 teams out of a hat from SMU, Tulsa, Memphis, Temple, UConn, Wichita St., UCF, Houston.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Keep Tier 3 the same and drop everyone from Tier 1 to Tier 2. There's a pretty real chance only 2 teams make the tournament. Will be a very competitive regular season though.

The early season OC games with determine more than anything else what happens in March.
Once you establish a number of teams who have beaten decent schools on mostly neutral sites every league game gains value..
Last year it was decent but SMU’s finish (I believe they were a lock before injuries) or if a dark house won the tourney it was a four bid league. It seemed no AAC team wanted that 4th bid.
November and December are key to any non P5 league.

 

[StunningSteve]

As wide open going into the season as any conference in college basketball. You can eliminate some teams at the bottom, although look to see improvement this year from USF, ECU and Tulane, as their new coaching staffs really get to bring in their own players.

Out of the 12 teams, 9 could make the NCAA tournament. As of today I look at the league like this:

Tier 1 (Should be tournament teams)

Cincy
Houston
UCF

Tier 2 (very well could be tournament teams if things break right)

UCONN
Witchia State
Memphis
Temple
Tulsa
SMU

Bottom Tier:
Tulane
USF
ECU

Out of that 2nd group, the teams that realistically have a shot would be UCONN, Witchia State, Memphis and Temple. But Tulsa returns most of their team which finished 4th last year in the league, and SMU still has some talent left on that team.

What is really fascinating is the balance in the league. Even the teams at that first Tier have major questions. Houston lost their 2 best players. Cincy lost their 3 best players. UCF had major injury issues last year.

Then you look at UCONN. New coaching staff. But returns a lot of the roster. Memphis has a new staff, and an influx of young players. Witcha State brings back almost a whole new team. Temple is so inconsistent but has talent.

Should be interesting.

I'd move Memphis up to tier 1 now, with their additions of Lance Thomas and Ryan Boyce.

Bear in mind, they bring back 5 seniors. Pretty much everyone who was instrumental in winning 20 games.

Kyvon Davenport will win all AAC honors this year. That dude hasn't scratched the surface.

I'd put the tiers at

Tier 1
Memphis (Break out team. Good mix of senior muscle up front with a talented backcourt. Lomax & Harris will be fun to watch)
Houston (Corey Davis is every bit as good as Gray.. just a different type of PG. Watch out for Gresham down low)
UCF (Second week potential. Extremely deep, with a trio of upper classmen stars in Dawkins, Taylor, Tacko)
Cincinnati (Cronin is nothing if not consistent)

Tier 2
UConn (will be better than people think)
Temple (will be better than people think. A tourney team if led by a steadier hand last year)
Wichita State (will be better than people think. McDuffie is a special player and now gets his spotlight)
Tulsa (Steady group.. if unspectacular)
SMU (Can move up if they add Jordan Lathon)

Tier 3
Tulane (added some good pieces with Jordan Walker, Zhang, Crabtree. Dunleavy is building)
USF (Like Tulane. A year away. Another transfer Zack Dawson is very good. Solid additions)
ECU (The rebuild has started. Has pieces... needs to get older)

 

[HawkHusky]

*UConn

FAKE NEWS!!!

 

[Slasher]

Who has the non-conference schedule to make the tournament? That's more important than how good the team is.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Memphis has a TON of talent. But my big question is Penny as a D1 coach. Much different than high school.

 

[Robertelamin]

Who has the non-conference schedule to make the tournament? That's more important than how good the team is.

Hopefully all the schools. This league has been around long enough there isn’t an excuse to schedule like a Conference USA school any longer. At the very least every school should be in a decent early tournament.

 

[StepbackCity]

UConn should be tier one

 

[StunningSteve]

Memphis has a TON of talent. But my big question is Penny as a D1 coach. Much different than high school.

Agreed. I think the idea is to out-talent most teams.

The Ryan Boyce signing today is significant because it only shapes their team more into the mold of Memphis East... They already have Malcolm Dandridge from Memphis East in the 2019 class.. So, it seems likely that Chandler Lawson and James Wiseman may be the #2&#3 additions to that class to join their old coach and teammates.

They'll have a rather large senior class graduating.. and from the sounds of things, there is a buzz that other highly rated recruits are picking up on too. Trendon Watford and Matthew Hurt are looking closely at Memphis.



If it indeed shakes out that way, Hardaway would have to be pretty bad to mess that up.

 

[champs99and04]

I wonder how long the pre-AAC Wichita State support from voters last. I think they were majorally overrated last year and people gave them votes based on previous performance. Do we feel it is completley gone now?

Nah. The Wichita hype was legitimate. They finished in the top ten in 2017 on KenPom and then returned pretty much their whole roster. Vegas pretty much backed that up with their pricing - they lost a lot of games as favorites in the final possessions.

That said, I can see how they might have underwhelmed you. It wasn't a team with a lot of top line talent (though Shamet may end up being a pro) and they regressed big time on defense. They were ripe for that upset in the tournament.

 

[champs99and04]

Keep Tier 3 the same and drop everyone from Tier 1 to Tier 2. There's a pretty real chance only 2 teams make the tournament. Will be a very competitive regular season though.

This is the way I see it. So much mediocrity just jumbled together. It can be fun mediocrity with a greater potential for growth than other mediocre conferences, but for now it is mediocrity nonetheless.

Not sure any team personifies that like UCF. They could be really good, should be really good, but you can't shake the feeling that they're somehow going to wind up in the 8/9 game in the AAC Tournament. I don't even think I'm joking - the hardest obstacle for them to overcome is the fact that they're UCF. And I know they won the national championship in football, but basketball is a different animal. I'm surprised they don't play at Tropicana Field because that would be fitting.

 

[StunningSteve]