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Message: [QUOTE="HuskyHawk, post: 4856127, member: 1414"] My theory on this is similar to picking stocks. The "experts" know more about the overall range of teams than you do. There's no doubt that Vegas has a better handle on how good Wisconsin is than I do. But Vegas does not know UConn like we know UConn. They just don't. Nobody who is looking at everything can have the inside knowledge we who live and breathe this team have. So we knew Alex's hand was about to heal and he'd start hitting shots. I knew I wanted nothing to do with -12.5 vs Georgetown. Hell no. There are gaps out there in what Vegas or the metrics can really measure. It's a game played by young, emotional men, and coached by an emotional man in our case. Fans, noise, building, time of year, how guys are feeling, rest, motivation, it's too much for anybody taking a wide view of all teams to measure properly in a predictive model. [/QUOTE]