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Message: [QUOTE="auror, post: 3453157, member: 1329"] Linking this site once more: [URL unfurl="true"]http://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=aacm[/URL] If all goes according to Sagarin rankings, we'd be tied with and lose the tiebreaker with SMU. SMU is predicted to lose their last 3 games, so we can't pass them in any scenario without beating Houston. We would very much like to pass them to get that juicy 6 seed ECU then Tulsa matchup rather than USF then Cincy from the 7th seed. However, if we win out, we actually get into a tie with Memphis for 5th/6th and beat them on tiebreak so we'd be the 5th seed (assuming Memphis loses at Houston, but beats WSU and Tulane at home). This gets us Tulane, but then Wichita and into Houston's side of the bracket. So for what I think is the most likely ideal scenario to get the 6th seed we need (games in parenthesis go against predictions): [LIST] [*]UConn wins out (Beat Houston at home) [*]Memphis wins 2 including Wichita, but does not win at Houston. [*]SMU loses to Wich and then wins at least one more. (One or both of at UCF or at USF). [/LIST] Can also get the 6th if Memphis beats Houston but SMU loses out. This is less likely because I doubt Memphis would win in Houston (games in parenthesis go against predictions): [LIST] [*]UConn wins out (Beat Houston at home) [*]Memphis wins out. (Wins at Houston). [*]SMU loses out. [/LIST] Can also happen if SMU wins the Wichita game, but requires Wichita then winning at Memphis (games in parenthesis go against predictions): [LIST] [*]UConn wins out (Beat Houston at home) [*]SMU beats Wichita and loses rest (Wins home vs. Wichita) [*]Memphis goes 1-2. (Loses either at Tulane or home vs. Wichita). [/LIST] The only scenario that gets us a 4th seed and bye that I can see... [LIST] [*]UConn wins out. [*]Wichita St goes exactly 1-3, with the win exactly in the SMU game. This requires them losing at home to Tulsa and Temple and at Memphis, which is a stretch but not impossible. [*]Everything else involving SMU and Memphis goes pretty much exactly to Sagarin (Memphis can lose at home to Tulane, but cannot beat Houston. SMU must still lose out as predicted). [/LIST] And actually in this bye permutation, either Cincy or Tulsa would be the #1 seed since we beat Houston. And we'd get Tulane/Memphis winner. So this is really the ideal ideal scenario. [/QUOTE]

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