Let's start with at least one win against FBS opponents this year. Not say'n Massey necessarily has it right but at this early stage against 11 FBS opponents it has UConn with "single digit % chance to win" in 5 games and only one game above a 27% chance to win (ECU at 37%).
On a positive note, if you add up all the % possibilities to win you get 1.72 "expected" wins in 2019 against FBS teams. Round that to 2 wins and steal an extra game and win the FCS game and UConn gets to 4 wins. Come on HCRE2.0, you can execute that!