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AAC Power Rankings

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I'll try to keep these updated every few weeks. Here's my first attempt:

With each team rounding up their OOC schedules, I figured it’s a good time to figure out where each team stands in comparison with each other:

1) Houston 8-0
Consistent great guard play led by Brooks, Davis and Robinson. Good wins vs. Oregon and BYU, but aside from that, the OOC has been underwhelming. Good OOC tests ahead with LSU and Saint Louis.

2) Cincinnati 9-1
Cumberland is still their lead guard and Jenifer has the best A/TO ratio in the country. Tre Scott, Keith Williams and Nysier Brooks were needed to improve their game and they have not disappointed. Pretty easy OOC so far, but good challenge coming up with Mississippi State.

3) UCF 7-2
Easy OOC so far, but gotta give credit for losing both games by a combined 3 points. Pretty vanilla team, but have a nice trio in Taylor, Fall and newcomer Dawkins.

4) UConn 7-3
Aside from the Iowa game, they’ve been competitive in every game. So far, my preseason expectations have been exceeded. Their new coach is pretty good too.

5) Temple 7-2
My favorite “other” AAC team. Quinton Rose is the man and Shizz is a great lead guard. Pierre-Louis developing in a good player and will be a leader next year. Good blend of front court depth.

6) Tulsa 7-3
Kinda clunky team, but has been exceeding expectations. This team can’t shoot so I doubt the success will last, but I wish them well. Their only potential OOC challenge is Dayton, so there’s a realistic chance they enter AAC conference games at 10-3.

7) Memphis 5-4
Here’s the KenPom for the four teams they’ve lost to: 12, 49, 64, 118. C’mon Jeremiah Martin, step it up! Tyler Harris is for real and has ONIONS!

8) SMU 6-4
The team is 3-1 with Foster back but Chargois, Mike/Hunt (haha) are the future. The Lipscomb loss doesn’t look so bad after they beat TCU and almost beat Belmont. Wouldn’t be surprised if they leapfrog Tulsa and Memphis in a few weeks.

9) Wichita State 4-4
I didn’t expect Wichita State to be good this year, but aside from the Oklahoma thrashing and the opener loss to La Tech, they’ve been OK. Good to see Gregg Marshall to continue to give freshmen Erik Stevenson, Dexter Dennis and Jamarius Burton good minutes and getting in Udeze when he can. They’ll be exciting to watch next year and they have a good ’19 class.

10) South Florida 6-2
Props to Brian Gregory for having me watch the entire Georgetown/USF game. Honestly, that was the first USF OOC game I’ve watched maybe ever? I really like David Collins and five of their top seven scorers are sophomores or younger. Should be somewhat decent next year.

11) East Carolina 6-4
Their OOC is cupcake city (350 KenPom) but lovely to see Jayden Gardner explode onto the scene.

12) Tulane 3-6
Caleb Daniels, Shakwon and Monteverde’s own (hello, Precious) Kevin Zhang are the future. I knew they’d be in the bottom-third of the league, but they are worse than expected.
 
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It’s still premature but depending on how things break it’s 3-5 bids which maybe even as high as 6 with a lot of luck. Top 9 makeup a nice BB league.
I was thinking 2-3 preseason. So far the conference has exceeded ,at least my , expectations.
 
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It’s still premature but depending on how things break it’s 3-5 bids which maybe even as high as 6 with a lot of luck. Top 9 makeup a nice BB league.
I was thinking 2-3 preseason. So far the conference has exceeded ,at least my , expectations.

6 bids? Sorry, I dont see that ever happening in the AAC, 3 to 4 bids from the conference would be great.
 
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6 bids? Sorry, I dont see that ever happening in the AAC, 3 to 4 bids from the conference would be great.
Ever? I wouldn't say that. It's certainly possible. The A-10 got 6 one year.

Let's say Hurley is the real deal, as we think, and Penny can coach. Let's say Sampson stays at Houston.

That essentially would set the bar at 4-5 teams right there. A 12-team conference with teams like UConn, Cincy, Memphis, WSU (w/Marshall), and Houston (w/ Sampson). You only need 1-2 more good teams to be looking at 6 being a distinct possibility.
 

Drew

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6 bids eventually happening in this league is 100% possible. One of the best things about college basketball is gaming computer rankings by playing a bunch of good teams. Even if you lose to a top 30 NET/RPI team its better than beating a sub 100 team as we saw by moving up after losing to FSU.

UConn and Memphis get into the top 25 with Cincinnati and Houston top 30 and its doable (how likely tbd)
 
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Maybe UConn at #4 AAC in NET has a better chance at the dance than #7 ACC in NET...FSU.
 

CTBasketball

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We open up conference play with a pretty tough stretch.

@USF
UCF
SMU
@Cincy
@Tulsa

We need to go 4-1 in that stretch with only a possible Cincy loss.
 
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Based on non-conference performance to date I think the AAC would get three teams in the dance: Houston, Cincy and Temple. That can/will change but UConn and UCF’s resumes aren’t impressive enough at this point. They might be on the bubble but on the outside looking in. Tulsa would be out but still has a longshot chance if they do well in conference. The other six have no chance.
 
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Around the AAC...

USF with a win at FIU. USF has actually exceeded my expectations this year. Still not good but at least they beat some cupcakes and aren’t a huge embarrassment to the conference.

ECU on the other hand with a loss at Charlotte. ECU is the epitome of brutality.
 
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What he means is the 9th best AAC team is the best it's ever been. We had 5 teams in the top 36 in '14 and 7 in top 86 in 2016, both of which are better than this year (2 and 5 respectively).

Personally, I think it's important to have teams in the top 25 of KenPom so you can funnel quality wins to everyone else, but I guess I'm old fashioned that way.

UConn down to 90th in NET in case anyone noticed (not including tonight's win).

Sticking to my guns of Houston, Cincy + tourny winner (and if it's one of those 2 then only 2 bids).
 
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What he means is the 9th best AAC team is the best it's ever been. We had 5 teams in the top 36 in '14 and 7 in top 86 in 2016, both of which are better than this year (2 and 5 respectively).

Personally, I think it's important to have teams in the top 25 of KenPom so you can funnel quality wins to everyone else, but I guess I'm old fashioned that way.

UConn down to 90th in NET in case anyone noticed (not including tonight's win).

Sticking to my guns of Houston, Cincy + tourny winner (and it's one of those 2 then only 2 bids).

I think Temple would get in if they finish top 4 in conference. Would probably need a win against Houston or Cincy and no losses to ECU or Tulane.

They don’t have any great wins OOC but a bunch of solid wins, two of which were on the road. Only losses vs. VCU and at Nova.
 
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I think Temple would get in if they finish top 4 in conference. Would probably need a win against Houston or Cincy and no losses to ECU or Tulane.

They don’t have any great wins OOC but a bunch of solid wins, two of which were on the road. Only losses vs. VCU and at Nova.

They're 83rd in NET and 81st in KenPom with 0 Q1 wins so far. Power conference teams are going to have way more opportunity for all wins in conference play, but especially Q1 and Q2 wins. Against whom and where will affect everything for teams like Temple. They only have 3 'A' games remaining on KenPom. I think they'd have to win 2 or 3 of those to have a shot and hope Missouri climbs into top 75 NET and they themselves climb into the top 60 (and top 40 to really feel confident at all).

AAC has a a bunch of okay and pretty good teams. But pretty good teams make the NIT. If 4 teams separate themselves maybe the league has a shot, but if there's a cluster of 6 teams at 7-10 wins, we'll get 2-3 teams in.
 
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They're 83rd in NET and 81st in KenPom with 0 Q1 wins so far. Power conference teams are going to have way more opportunity for all wins in conference play, but especially Q1 and Q2 wins. Against whom and where will affect everything for teams like Temple. They only have 3 'A' games remaining on KenPom. I think they'd have to win 2 or 3 of those to have a shot and hope Missouri climbs into top 75 NET and they themselves climb into the top 60 (and top 40 to really feel confident at all).

AAC has a a bunch of okay and pretty good teams. But pretty good teams make the NIT. If 4 teams separate themselves maybe the league has a shot, but if there's a cluster of 6 teams at 7-10 wins, we'll get 2-3 teams in.

Yea, they do need a few Q1 and Q2 wins. I wouldn’t be concerned too much about the NET and Kenpom rankings yet. If you look there are a bunch of schools from mid majors ranked in front of Temple now that will likely plummet once they start playing bad conference games. If Temple can avoid losses to USF, ECU and Tulane I think their resume will look decent.
 
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Yea, they do need a few Q1 and Q2 wins. I wouldn’t be concerned too much about the NET and Kenpom rankings yet. If you look there are a bunch of schools from mid majors ranked in front of Temple now that will likely plummet once they start playing bad conference games. If Temple can avoid losses to USF, ECU and Tulane I think their resume will look decent.

NC State got a 9 seed when they were #81 last year on this date. Next lowest to get an at large was 67 at this point. Again we're 79 and Temple is 83.

So yes, it's possible to get an at large from the 80s at this point, but they won 4 additional 'A' games (plus 1 they already had) and 4 additional 'B' games to finish with 5 'A' wins and 5 'B' wins. As I said, Temple will likely max out at 3 'A' games played total. NC State also only lost in 'A' and 'B' games going forward: 9 more losses, all 'A' or "B', to finish with the 55th SoS. Temple will not have that schedule strength.

Temple will likely only have 9 'A' or "B' games plus conference tournament games remaining. That's as many as NC State lost from now forward. plus the 8 additional wins. Temple has 2 'B' wins and 0 'A' wins. So they're likely to need to win 2/3 of those 'A' + 'B' games or maybe even more to climb the ~30-40 spots NC St. needed. They're currently favored in 1/9 of those games.

Good luck Temple!
 
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I really am not a ratings wonk...how can Houston be #9 in NET and #36 in kenpom?
 
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I really am not a ratings wonk...how can Houston be #9 in NET and #36 in kenpom?
NET is based strictly on what you've done this year. Kenpom incorporates expectations, and past performance into the mix. This will become minimized once you get deep into conference play, but the fact that Kenpom didn't think much of Houston at the beginning is holding them back in their ratings.
 
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Thanks for explanation...NET then would be a more accurate reflection during early to mid season than kenpom?
 
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Thanks for explanation...NET then would be a more accurate reflection during early to mid season than kenpom?
Not necessarily, because NET also caps scoring margin at 10 and also doesn't adjust efficiency relative to the quality of teams you play.
 

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