A Mental Experiment Involving Rocket Fuel

[JoePgh]

One way of looking at the 14-player 2017-18 roster:

Without trying to be exact, here is roughly how I would fill out UConn's 2017-18 depth chart:

Starters:

Stevens
Collier
Samuelson
Williams
Nurse

"Second Team"

Butler
Camara
Walker
Coombs
Dangerfield

"End of Bench"

Irwin
Bent
Espinosa-Hunter
Gordon

Now let me propose this mental experiment:

Suppose for some reason the five Starters listed above were loaded onto a NASA launch vehicle in central Florida next October, were rocketed up to the space shuttle, and spent the entire 2017-18 season orbiting the planet. Hopefully, the NCAA would agree to allow them redshirt status.

That would leave Geno, CD, and the brain trust with a roster consisting of the last 9 players listed above: five starters and four bench players.

How successful do you think that 9-person team would be in the 2017-18 season? Personally, I think it would win 30+ games and make the Sweet 16 (at least) in the NCAA tournament.

Sooooo ...

What does that imply in real life? Even on the 2000 team, and even on the Olympic teams, Geno has never had fourteen very good players contending for minutes. He has said that he never wants a roster this large. If he distributes minutes "on merit", there is a very good chance that Irwin and Bent, whom I and many of you expect to be key bench contributors this year to UConn's success, will not see the floor until UConn is 30 or 40 points ahead (which may not take very long, even against good teams).

I don't see a good solution to this problem. The starters are going to get 20-25 minutes in most games, just so they stay sharp until the NCAA tournament begins. That leaves less than 100 minutes to distribute among 9 other players, one of whom is the best player in the country in her class, and several others are Top 25 players in their classes.

Maybe one of the small forwards or big guards can be persuaded to take a non-medical redshirt year?

Otherwise, I think 2 or 3 of these players will probably decide that they must leave, even if they like the school, the coaches, and their teammates. Or maybe the Fates will solve the problem by causing someone to be injured, but that is not a solution we should wish for.

You can say it's a nice problem to have, and it is, but still, it's a problem.

 

[UcMiami]

One way of looking at the 14-player 2017-18 roster:

Without trying to be exact, here is roughly how I would fill out UConn's 2017-18 depth chart:

Starters:

Stevens
Collier
Samuelson
Williams
Nurse

"Second Team"

Butler
Camara
Walker
Coombs
Dangerfield

"End of Bench"

Irwin
Bent
Espinosa-Hunter
Gordon

Now let me propose this mental experiment:

Suppose for some reason the five Starters listed above were loaded onto a NASA launch vehicle in central Florida next October, were rocketed up to the space shuttle, and spent the entire 2017-18 season orbiting the planet. Hopefully, the NCAA would agree to allow them redshirt status.

That would leave Geno, CD, and the brain trust with a roster consisting of the last 9 players listed above: five starters and four bench players.

How successful do you think that 9-person team would be in the 2017-18 season? Personally, I think it would win 30+ games and make the Sweet 16 (at least) in the NCAA tournament.

Sooooo ...

What does that imply in real life? Even on the 2000 team, and even on the Olympic teams, Geno has never had fourteen very good players contending for minutes. He has said that he never wants a roster this large. If he distributes minutes "on merit", there is a very good chance that Irwin and Bent, whom I and many of you expect to be key bench contributors this year to UConn's success, will not see the floor until UConn is 30 or 40 points ahead (which may not take very long, even against good teams).

I don't see a good solution to this problem. The starters are going to get 20-25 minutes in most games, just so they stay sharp until the NCAA tournament begins. That leaves less than 100 minutes to distribute among 9 other players, one of whom is the best player in the country in her class, and several others are Top 25 players in their classes.

Maybe one of the small forwards or big guards can be persuaded to take a non-medical redshirt year?

Otherwise, I think 2 or 3 of these players will probably decide that they must leave, even if they like the school, the coaches, and their teammates. Or maybe the Fates will solve the problem by causing someone to be injured, but that is not a solution we should wish for.

You can say it's a nice problem to have, and it is, but still, it's a problem.

Take a look at the Olympic team for an idea - if they are in fact all as good as advertised, and we are a long way from knowing that - a line change mentality may come into play - run as hard as you can for five minutes, sit while the next group runs for four minutes, third group in to finish the first quarter strong, rinse and repeat. Or look at the kind of thing that Syracuse was doing (not the style of offense, but the use of the full roster) last year - got them to the championship game against more 'talented' opponents. It is a valid option usually used with lots of warm bodies to cover for talent deficiencies, but imagine it deployed with this kind of talent. 98 feet of pressure with fast athletic players, followed by precision offense played at speed.

 

[BroadwayVa]

A lot of assumptions about specific players; I don't see how you keep Crystal off of the Starting 5 next year (or even the latter part of this year. So for Geno to assure her the point and running the team who gets bumped or shares time. ? Gabby or Kia--a tough choice. Then you have a top talent in Walker, if she transfers her talent to Div1 smoothly, she will require time just for development.

Here is my best guess as to what Geno will do: He will evaluate the opponents. Start a indicated starting five--they will always start each game. 5 minutes in he will mix and match players to adapter for the opponent.
I think its a fair bet to believe he'll run a tall team and a guard / fast team depending on the opponent. It makes no sense to select those players now--development will make the difference.
PT will not be allocated on a specific amount of time--it will ALWAYS depend on effort and practice behavior.
Some players will be very happy with this system --some not. My guess is he will lose a player. But most will buy into the Geno way and stay--if for nothing more than to win championships.

 

[tomcat]

I agree that your analysis forces the question of whether "third stringers" will be accepting of third-string status, or will some of them transfer so they get at least a little playing time? Let's face it: The team is absolutely loaded, and players like Espinosa, Gordon and Irwin may not be willing to just sit on the bench. I also worry about team chemistry when so many players are star caliber, but I trush Geno can take care of that matter.

An aside: There is a point to having some bench players who actually ARE bench players -- realists who are accepting their roles, play a couple of minutes in some games, and do their best to get the team ready for battle. Tierney Lawlor on the current team, for example. Marci Czel was one of my favorites. Anyone remember Missy Rose? Who among the group you've listed would be willing to play that role?

 

[UcMiami]

I agree that your analysis forces the question of whether "third stringers" will be accepting of third-string status, or will some of them transfer so they get at least a little playing time? Let's face it: The team is absolutely loaded, and players like Espinosa, Gordon and Irwin may not be willing to just sit on the bench. I also worry about team chemistry when so many players are star caliber, but I trush Geno can take care of that matter.

An aside: There is a point to having some bench players who actually ARE bench players -- realists who are accepting their roles, play a couple of minutes in some games, and do their best to get the team ready for battle. Tierney Lawlor on the current team, for example. Marci Czel was one of my favorites. Anyone remember Missy Rose? Who among the group you've listed would be willing to play that role?

It is not just play that role but play that role for a specific period of time - the big team of 1999-2001 we had Swin, Tamika, and Asjha playing that role for a few years, they got minutes but not a lot:
Swin as a freshman got in 22 games and averaged 9.5 minutes, as a sophomore she was up to 37 games and 20.8 minutes, junior 35 games/23.8, senior 39/27.8
Jones went 34 games/20 min, 36 games/17.6 min, 35/19.3, 30/24.6
Williams went 33/22.4, 31/16.4, 33/19.9, 35/21.9
The junior year numbers were sparked by two starters going down with injuries Sveta in game 19 and Shea in game 30.
What stood out with all three of those players was that the limited minutes they were playing were extremely productive minutes - they were contributing and learning and the team was depending on them to be part of the winning formula. That is a very similar situation to Gabby and her 15.6 minutes as a freshman and her 18.6 as a sophomore, or Napheesa and her 17.2 minutes last year. Players who have the right attitude and buy into the system and have the skills to perform at the level of the team can get huge satisfaction from getting fewer minutes as long as those minutes are productive. If Geno has ten players that can play his style of basketball at his level of expectation they will all get meaningful minutes, if he has 14 it make get a little difficult, but ... how many freshman at Uconn really come in ready to play at that level from day one - Sue did, Maya did, Breanna ... not quite, Moriah ...not quite, Morgan did, DT ...? How well will this years freshman really play during the season and how much will they have improved by next year? Will they match Gabby with her 16/18 minute improvement, or will they be a bit better, or a bit worse?

 

[victor64]

I said it in another thread. Allow Butler to pursue opportunities where she can be the starting center elsewhere. Redshirt two or three freshmen. Historically it goes against the grain but this isn't a usual situation.

 

[Adesmar123]

Yes.